I just want to run a few things past y'all and see what you think? we(as in western countries) have 3 core systems Power, Finance/Banking, and Telecommunications, the failure of any one of these will cause the collapse of the other 2 within weeks or days at most, this will then result in the failure of civilisation as we know it.in any collapse 10% of people would do the wrong thing , 80% WOULD DO NOTHING, only 10% would do the right thing. 80% of people would stay in their homes as long as their food lasted and they had access to clean water. 90% would run out of food in less than 2 months many in a week or 2(in Britain I believe it would be 1 week or less).for anyone to survive they must have enough food stored until new food could be grown, probably in the 2nd summer after TEOTWAWKI. 90% of the population would be dead in 6 months to 1 year.
3 Core Systems.
- Thread starter lonewolf
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Really, it's all tied to when the grid goes out.
Once this happens, and it is obvious it isn't going to be up soon (a very key point, as until then, there is hope)....then it will be a matter of days before we see nearly complete anarchy occur.
This will be the most dangerous time of the whole deal. No doubt, governments will roll into major cities with military force, but they can't cover it all (and eventually, soldiers will realize they are pretty much on their own), and non-major urban centers will be completely lawless (looting, murder, rape, you name it, as people fight for few resources). Initially, I think we'll see a large number of people dying off during this time through violent means. Within a couple weeks though, starvation will claim even more, while others are still dying due to the violence. Within months, you'll see many more die off due to disease and lack of sanitation.
During the first couple weeks, I think those of us in rural areas are basically safe (maybe a lone maruader, or small band, but few and far between). After that though, when food is running out in the cities, folks will use what gas they have and check the surrounding areas. For us, this will be our dangerous time (2 weeks after, to about 6 months after). After 6 months though, nobody is really going to have the fuel or much in the way of working tech, to be very mobile. Sure, there will be some smart bands who have looted, etc. and have some resources, but even these guys are going to pick targets giving them the best bang for the buck...like warehouses, large stores, etc.
This is why the key to safety is location. If you are away from large urban centers, simply put, the lack of working tech is going to keep you geographically isolated to a certain degree.
Not saying you can't survive in a city. You can, if you lay low (or join a gang). Otherwise though, you're just going to be one of the countless victims. Staying hidden will be the key, but also hamper any attempts to gather resources. Joining one of the gangs may be a short-term option (and if you lost your morals), but even then, violence is likely your biggest threat (and competition within and with other gangs and survivors).
I'm not naive enough to think we won't have to look around and loot some (abandoned) places. Things like hay, feed, canned goods, medicine, fuel, etc., we'll probably need to loot. But, we will steer clear of any such target that is contested, as we're not going to risk our lives for it. Better yet, this would only be needed if the SHTF prior to having all preps in place, as the eventual plan is to be able to switch into being completely self-sufficient.
Once this happens, and it is obvious it isn't going to be up soon (a very key point, as until then, there is hope)....then it will be a matter of days before we see nearly complete anarchy occur.
This will be the most dangerous time of the whole deal. No doubt, governments will roll into major cities with military force, but they can't cover it all (and eventually, soldiers will realize they are pretty much on their own), and non-major urban centers will be completely lawless (looting, murder, rape, you name it, as people fight for few resources). Initially, I think we'll see a large number of people dying off during this time through violent means. Within a couple weeks though, starvation will claim even more, while others are still dying due to the violence. Within months, you'll see many more die off due to disease and lack of sanitation.
During the first couple weeks, I think those of us in rural areas are basically safe (maybe a lone maruader, or small band, but few and far between). After that though, when food is running out in the cities, folks will use what gas they have and check the surrounding areas. For us, this will be our dangerous time (2 weeks after, to about 6 months after). After 6 months though, nobody is really going to have the fuel or much in the way of working tech, to be very mobile. Sure, there will be some smart bands who have looted, etc. and have some resources, but even these guys are going to pick targets giving them the best bang for the buck...like warehouses, large stores, etc.
This is why the key to safety is location. If you are away from large urban centers, simply put, the lack of working tech is going to keep you geographically isolated to a certain degree.
Not saying you can't survive in a city. You can, if you lay low (or join a gang). Otherwise though, you're just going to be one of the countless victims. Staying hidden will be the key, but also hamper any attempts to gather resources. Joining one of the gangs may be a short-term option (and if you lost your morals), but even then, violence is likely your biggest threat (and competition within and with other gangs and survivors).
I'm not naive enough to think we won't have to look around and loot some (abandoned) places. Things like hay, feed, canned goods, medicine, fuel, etc., we'll probably need to loot. But, we will steer clear of any such target that is contested, as we're not going to risk our lives for it. Better yet, this would only be needed if the SHTF prior to having all preps in place, as the eventual plan is to be able to switch into being completely self-sufficient.
pretty much echoes what I think, a lot of people will just wait around for the power to come back on and wait and wait, how long before they realise its not coming back on? maybe a few days, maybe a week. police and army will try and hold onto the major cities but if power is down and electronics too will they get paid? if their not being paid will they report for work? or will they just go home and look after their own families-I think that's the most logical thing they will do.
Unfortunately, the most logical thing for them to do is to follow a charismatic commander and become a band of armed marauders who take supplies from those less armed. Can you imagine such a group with even one tank?
This is where I think the TV show "Revolution" got it right. Basically, such forces may band together to form a new military dictatorship (if history has taught us anything). Of course, how well it would work without modern infrastructure supporting it, is another matter.
you are right, it's a tripod, take away one leg and it will fall and fall hard...if I can't bug out at once, would have to lay low as long as possible and then sneak out..more supplies would be nice like more ammo and some guns and if I have to I now what place to go "shopping"
I think it depends on what spurs the event. If it was a famine of sorts, like the dust bowl or the potato famine, then we could have all the infrastructure in place and still hit the skids. Food and water supplies going down or being tainted would put a bigger strain than most folks think. I agree though that anything that would put a pinch on those 3 things you mentioned would cause a crisis. I haven't given a lot of thought to the percentages, but I really hope they'd be a little better than stated in the opening post.
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Just look at what happened after Katrina in New Orleans . . . lots of looting, raping, police going MIA, people going hungry, banks were closed, stores raided of supplies and the list goes on and on.. . went on for weeks. Didn't happen in all cities that were effected thankfully! That was small scale compared to what can happen if we had a total collapse.
We would have bigger issues then gangs! dysentery, cholera, typhoid fever
Today in the 21st century pre-shtf
The WHO estimates that there are 80 million cases and 700,000 deaths from dysentery
The WHO estimates that there are 3–5 million people and causes 100,000–130,000 deaths a year from cholera
CDC estimated 21 million cases of typhoid fever and 200,000 deaths occur annually from typhoid fever
Has anyone ever read the story of Typhoid Mary? Imagine a post-shtf, stay away from cities and upstream from them, stay away from large group of people!
Today in the 21st century pre-shtf
The WHO estimates that there are 80 million cases and 700,000 deaths from dysentery
The WHO estimates that there are 3–5 million people and causes 100,000–130,000 deaths a year from cholera
CDC estimated 21 million cases of typhoid fever and 200,000 deaths occur annually from typhoid fever
Has anyone ever read the story of Typhoid Mary? Imagine a post-shtf, stay away from cities and upstream from them, stay away from large group of people!
sums up my post SHTF plan in a nutshell!!!
For me, that was a real wake up call. Until then, like many, I always thought the government could pretty much restore order during a localized natural disaster. But, to actually see the SHTF in one small area, and see how helpless the world's most powerful government was to face it, was just eye-opening. Enough to make me see that we really need to do what we can to do for ourselves if facing such a threat. Even if a short-term one.
Besides the breathtaking natural beauty, there is a very good reason I live where I do. You can't by any stretch say there are a lot of people here and I can be in some of the most remote and rugged wilderness in the lower 48 by walking out my backdoor. I have a perfect "stay away from large groups of people" starting point. And, I like it that way.
