Does anyone else see an economic crash coming?

[Supervisor42]

The markets and the economy aren't the same thing.

Ben

That is true.
But both recessions I lived thru, the stock market marched lockstep, downhill with the economy.
Don't make me break out the annoying graphs.

 

[sonya123]

I am pretty sure if inflation goes up, the stock market goes up too because people take their money out of cash

 

[Neb]

Please elaborate. I have some thoughts but I'd like your perspective.

Not my area of expertise but...

Currently the economy may be a recession but the markets are doing well now.

Ben

 

[Haertig]

Stay in your ivory tower among friends of your same ilk.....there are a bunch of average people out there that are going to crash and burn as the economy does another pump and dump.

Why the hostility for stating the truth? Spending money that one doesn't have is indeed a bad plan that will inevitably bring problems for you. Acknowledging that fact and warning against getting caught up in it is not an "ivory tower" thing.

The only way to get swamped in credit card debt is to put yourself there by your own actions. A bad economy may indeed deny people the ability to buy things they want and in some cases things they need. However, buying those things one can't afford using a credit card that one can't (or doesn't intend to) pay off is not a reasonable fix for the situation. That only makes the situation worse. You'd be better off just stealing things in the first place. There's a chance you won't get caught that way. Not so if you put them on a credit card.

 

[montanabill]

I am a bit raw about the current state of the nation...people get barraged with credit card offers from every institution. And yes I know crazy interest rates and fees.
Right now there are people who are being priced out of buying groceries, maybe it is just here in parts of Montana where the wages have been low for a long time and just recently have come up to the point we are one of the few states that supposedly wages are keeping up with inflation..
Except inflation doesn't take in the rise in food costs..
Car insurance has risen, home insurance has risen, taxes have really gone up.
Food prices have gone up
and rent has doubled on a lot of lower income housing.
So....... many of the people my heart goes out to are not charging a cruise or new car on credit cards.....
This next year should be interesting.

 

[Amish Heart]

Aaaand the DOW is getting comfortable above 44K again today.
Where's my recession that I ordered?!

It's coming. It's gonna smack you right upside the head if you're not looking for it.

 

[Supervisor42]

Aaaand the DOW is getting comfortable above 44K again today.
Where's my recession that I ordered?!

DOW is now above 45K today! (record high)
Where is my 'economic crash' dammit!?
(yes, I know the stock market is not the economy, spare the lecture) .

 

[Amish Heart]

You are just being impatient. No impulse control. Just wait.

 

[Neb]

DOW is now above 45K today! (record high)
Where is my 'economic crash' dammit!?
(yes, I know the stock market is not the economy, spare the lecture) .

I'll skip the lecture as per your request.

Look to the tariffs being implemented that affect transnational companies. There is enough uncertainty in tariffs that investor will be abandoning those stocks and drag down the markets.

So chill for 47 days.

Ben

 

[elkhound]

i seen a chuck roast monday....$45 and change...its $8.49 a pound now...really...its chuck for gods sake...ground chuck hamburger is only $3.99 or 4.99...more labor in it too...why...price gouging...!!

 

[Amish Heart]

I feel grateful if I find a chuck roast for $6.49. I've got a bunch in the freezer tho, for now. Am on the lookout for a prime rib (boneless) for Christmas eve dinner. Nope at two stores so far. Our local amish place can get one, but I don't want to spend $200.

 

[Supervisor42]

I'll skip the lecture as per your request.

Look to the tariffs being implemented that affect transnational companies. There is enough uncertainty in tariffs that investor will be abandoning those stocks and drag down the markets.

So chill for 47 days.

Ben

Oh, I'm chillin' alright ...
I always mention that my portfolio is in 'safe stocks' and when the market zooms, investors pull billion$ out of 'safe' to invest in 'risky'.
My portfolio - down $2,444 today!

 

[montanabill]

I think the economic crash will be kicked off after January when certain factions whip up the folks from other countries staying in the foreign owned hotels in sanctuary cites that will be forced to leave....People with nothing to lose are dangerous.

 

[Magus]

In the best of times, it could go overnight in the age of cascade sell-offs, I have learned not to be too mindful of it, one angry hacker could bollix things for months with no warning. less stress allows one to think more clearly.

 

[Amish Heart]

If you're ready, then you're ready.

 

[Supervisor42]

In the best of times, it could go overnight in the age of cascade sell-offs, I have learned not to be too mindful of it, one angry hacker could bollix things for months with no warning. less stress allows one to think more clearly.

With the advent of 'computer-trading' a decade ago, add in some AI lately, and millions of shares of the same stock can be traded in milliseconds.
There is no such thing as "cooler heads will prevail" anymore, and if John is asleep at the wheel, the machine will never miss a beat.
Almost all brokers use it today for 'managed accounts' and mutual funds.
I preached too much about "Beware of the Machines" already...
Guess who manages my stocks? Me.

 

[Supervisor42]

DOW is now above 45K today! (record high)
Where is my 'economic crash' dammit!?
(yes, I know the stock market is not the economy, spare the lecture) .

The NASDAQ broke above 20K today, for the first time in history... if anybody cares.
(sorry, no annoying graph)

 

[Haertig]

The NASDAQ broke above 20K today

We are at a point in time where the little voice in my head says, "Is it time to start selling and banking your profits?" But then the other little voice, the greedy one, says "No!"

 

[zoomzoom]

The NASDAQ broke above 20K today, for the first time in history... if anybody cares.

I sure as heck do care!

We are at a point in time where the little voice in my head says, "Is it time to start selling and banking your profits?" But then the other little voice, the greedy one, says "No!"

A little voice in my head says withdraw enough so you have cash reserves to cover expenses so IF the market goes down, I don't have to sell low.

The other little voice reminds me that my money pretty much doubled in Trump's first term.

 

[montanabill]

What percent of the stock market is owned by the very rich? I have heard as much as 90%....Sounds like a rigged game.

 

[Supervisor42]

What percent of the stock market is owned by the very rich? I have heard as much as 90%....Sounds like a rigged game.

I agree.
Everybody hates them ...
But with their trillion$ invested in all those companies, they keep the wheels turning, and the lights on.
That's where all the money that bought those shares went.

 

[zoomzoom]

According to this article,

The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of stocks​

https://markets.businessinsider.com...s-one-percent-record-high-economy-2024-1?op=1

That said, who are the top 10%?
According to this article https://www.kiplinger.com/personal-finance/605075/are-you-rich

• The top 10% will have $970,900

Here’s the average family’s net worth by age in 2022, according to the same survey:

• Younger than 35: $183,500
• 35-44: $549,600
• 45-54: $975,800
• 55-64: $1,566,900
• 65-74: $1,794,600
• 75 or older: $1,624,100

 

[zoomzoom]

So the "average family's net worth" for age 45-54 puts them in the top 10%.

 

[Neb]

I sure as heck do care!

A little voice in my head says withdraw enough so you have cash reserves to cover expenses so IF the market goes down, I don't have to sell low.

The other little voice reminds me that my money pretty much doubled in Trump's first term.

We will regularly sell stocks that are up to take our profits. Not all but enough shares to cash in the profits. Let the principle ride.

Ben

 

[zoomzoom]

We will regularly sell stocks that are up to take our profits. Not all but enough shares to cash in the profits. Let the principle ride.

Ben

I sort of do that but my portfolio is more mutual funds as opposed to individual stocks.
My rule is my sells never include short-term gains as they're taxed a lot higher.

 

[montanabill]

I don't hate the rich that operate 93% of the stock market....I just consider it like playing the games at the las vegas casinos.

 

[Supervisor42]

According to this article,

The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of stocks​

https://markets.businessinsider.com...s-one-percent-record-high-economy-2024-1?op=1

That said, who are the top 10%?
According to this article https://www.kiplinger.com/personal-finance/605075/are-you-rich

• The top 10% will have $970,900

Here’s the average family’s net worth by age in 2022, according to the same survey:

• Younger than 35: $183,500
• 35-44: $549,600
• 45-54: $975,800
• 55-64: $1,566,900
• 65-74: $1,794,600
• 75 or older: $1,624,100

Yes. If you dig down into billionaires 'money-piles' you will only find big piles of IOU's (stock shares) of companies they sent their 'money' to .
I speak a lot about 'paper profits' when people preach about how much money they have 'made' because their portfolio is up a lot.