Markets

[joel]

Similar prices but improved fundamentals

Similar prices but improved fundamentals

Average gasoline price	$3.75​	$4.00​	6.7%​
Oil price	$96​	$120​	24.9%​
Broad commodities index (bloomberg)	143.6​	135.0​	-6.0%​
Disposable income (in millions)	$12284​	$18276​	48.8%​
GDP growth (average of '22-'23 estimates	1.9%​	3.1%​	1.2%​
Unemployment	8.2%​	3.8%​	-4.4%​
Household debt-to-disposable income	112.5%​	96.8%​	-15.7%​
Energy share of spending	3.7%​	2.5%​	-1.2%​
Energy GDP contribution	1.3%​	2.0%​	0.7%​
Source: FactSet, Edward Jones
	2011 - 2013	2022	% change

 

[Pearl]

I heard the GDP may go down to ZERO! That will be a first Joe!

 

[joel]

[IMG alt=" Bloomberg commodity index
"]https://www.edwardjones.com/sites/d...022-03/3-8-22-chart-1.png?itok=IBB8PpNv[/IMG]
Source: FactSet. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
The chart shows the recent rise in the Bloomberg commodity index and the start of U.S. recessions.

 

[joel]

I heard the GDP may go down to ZERO! That will be a first Joe!

Unemployment would have to be at %100 also?

 

[Mountain trapper]

I expect to see oil hit $200-300 per barrel within the next 6-12 months. Fuel and fuel prices will double in the same time frame. Stock market will probably drop by 50%. Of course the welfare takers will get increased benefits to cover these costs.

 

[Supervisor42]

I expect to see oil hit $200-300 per barrel within the next 6-12 months. Fuel and fuel prices will double in the same time frame. Stock market will probably drop by 50%. Of course the welfare takers will get increased benefits to cover these costs.

Respectfully disagree. That will not happen, for a few reasons:
1. Consumption and activity everywhere would grind to a halt. They would sell near zero volume... Near zero income for their product (which there is plenty of).
2. Nobody sees OPEC opening the valves wide-open about now? Did you forget about them?

 

[Bacpacker]

Respectfully disagree. That will not happen, for a few reasons:
1. Consumption and activity everywhere would grind to a halt. They would sell near zero volume... Near zero income for their product (which there is plenty of).
2. Nobody sees OPEC opening the valves wide-open about now? Did you forget about them?View attachment 81953

IMO OPEC is being told to hold the lid tight. They are all making money, but holding production down is pushing prices much higher. It ain't gonna slow down for a while yet

 

[Mountain trapper]

Respectfully disagree. That will not happen, for a few reasons:
1. Consumption and activity everywhere would grind to a halt. They would sell near zero volume... Near zero income for their product (which there is plenty of).
2. Nobody sees OPEC opening the valves wide-open about now? Did you forget about them?View attachment 81953

Consumption will not grind to a halt. People still need to get to work, products still need to be transported to market, people still need to heat their homes. Not many people can sit around waiting for relief.
Back in 08 oil hit $140+ per barrel. Why do you think it won't go even higher now?

 

[Supervisor42]

Back in 08 oil hit $140+ per barrel. Why do you think it won't go even higher now?

Back in '08 we were using mostly oil from OPEC, we pist them off, and there was the famous 'oil embargo' when they cut us off.
We were producing less than 50% domestically than we were using then.
Totally different today. They are our buddies today.
A little over a year ago we were producing more oil than we were using.
Even with the damage JB did, we are still not far from that mark today.
I'm not saying things are not going to completely suck for countries that produce 0% of what they use, it will. (especially if it all came from Russia)

 

[joel]

U.S. DOLLAR / WTI CRUDE OIL


USDWTI
USDWTI

IDC
See more on advanced chart
126.42

USD

+1.66 (+1.33%)
MARKET OPEN

 

[Supervisor42]

U.S. DOLLAR / WTI CRUDE OIL


USDWTI
USDWTI

IDC
See more on advanced chart
126.42

USD

+1.66 (+1.33%)
MARKET OPEN

I cannot believe there aren't lots of people here screaming "Follow the money!"
All of that money dumped by people at gas pumps does not go to the gas stations.
They make 20¢ on every gallon of gasoline they sell, regardless of price.
Why would they want to sell fewer gallons at an outrageous price?
The price of oil here is not from a sudden plunge in supply...
The price of oil here is certainly not from a sudden surge in demand.
What happened?
Stupid happened...
And we are about to find out how much that costs.




The money is going to people that JB made very, very mad... And it is payback time!
Strike 3!!!!

 

[Pearl]

I cannot believe there aren't lots of people here screaming "Follow the money!"
All of that money dumped by people at gas pumps does not go to the gas stations.
They make 20¢ on every gallon of gasoline they sell, regardless of price.
Why would they want to sell fewer gallons at an outrageous price?
The price of oil here is not from a sudden plunge in supply...
The price of oil here is certainly not from a sudden surge in demand.
What happened?
Stupid happened...
And we are about to find out how much that costs.




The money is going to people that JB made very, very mad... And it is payback time!

It's about time, past time!!

 

[Supervisor42]

Only 2 vids allowed per post
Here's #3:

 

[Supervisor42]

U.S. DOLLAR / WTI CRUDE OIL
USDWTI
USDWTI

IDC
See more on advanced chart
126.42 USD

So, did anybody notice a slight "correction" today?
It's at $108 per bbl now.

 

[Terri9630]

They are our buddies today

Sounds like it!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielc...-biden-if-you-want-more-oil-pump-it-yourself/

 

[Curmudgeon]

Anyone catch this garbage. It should start in the right place, if not, cue up to 27 minutes, unbelievable.


.

 

[Supervisor42]

Anyone catch this garbage. It should start in the right place, if not, cue up to 27 minutes, unbelievable.

I haven't seen propaganda like that since watching well-made Chinese propaganda.
Step 1: Create a massive problem by cutting the throat of domestic oil production on the first day in office.
Step 2: Blame Putin and praise the stars for him showing up to keep you from accepting responsibility for what you did.
Step 3: Tap our EMERGENCY oil supply for 6 months to try and contain the bloodbath coming for your pals in the mid-terms.
Step 4: Blame the 'greedy' oil companies for selling oil products at the high price forced by the shortage you caused by destroying production.
All is well.

 

[bkt]

That's not even well-made propaganda. This guy couldn't follow a script if his life depended on it. I honestly feel bad for people who want to like and respect Biden, because their brains are working overtime trying to justify their allegiance.

 

[Neb]

Anyone catch this garbage. It should start in the right place, if not, cue up to 27 minutes, unbelievable.


.

The only analogy that comes to mind is "My complications had complications."



Set rant mode = true

Listening to Biden makes less sense than the movie "Brazil".

He blames everything and everyone except himself and his blind devotion to the Green religion.

Using the strategic oil reserves to address the high cost of fuel? Releasing 1M barrels a day when the world when the world demands 100x that much is not going to drive down costs. The strategic reserves are not for political strategies! Squandering the strategic reserve when faced with the Spector of WWIII looming makes as much sense as throwing guns a bullets at an armed militia assaulting our house thinking it will slow down the attack. It will not alleviate the problem and will only make us weaker.

Increasing milage requirements for 10 years from now will not help the people that are suffering now but will ensure vehicles of the future will be more expensive.

Ever wonder what it was like for the Aztecs trying to appease the gods to ene a drought ? Just a few more human sacrifices and all will be fine.

Ben

 

[LizaMonatik44]

Almost every successful firm faces the problem of finding new customers for its products at some point.

 

[Neb]

Almost every successful firm faces the problem of finding new customers for its products at some point.

Would funeral homes be an exemption?

Welcome to H&CL.

It is considered proper etiquette to start a 5hread in the Introductions forum and let us know about yourself.

Welcome

Ben

 

[SmithWalter92]

When working in the market, you have to be prepared for risks and losses. Especially if you still intend to earn a return of hundreds of percent. Do you want to earn a lot? No problem, the futures market offers such opportunities. But be prepared for potential losses to be high as well. Risking one dollar and earning hundreds of thousands is a utopia. It's likely to be a fluke if you get lucky once, and it's unlikely to turn into a pattern. I once decided to try this type of earning, and I only succeeded thanks to Mortgage Advice York. They were the ones who helped me with the mortgage to start my business. If you are not ready to take a big risk, choose more conservative ways. They won't bring in a cosmic income. Still, the probability of striking a big score or losing money is many times lower.

Taking money on credit is a very bad idea, because if you do not return them on time, a large debt will appear.

 

[joel]

Taking money on credit is a very bad idea, because if you do not return them on time, a large debt will appear.

It is cheaper then pulling funds out of my 401 K-plan, even at 4.99 present for 36 months.

 

[UrbanHunter]

Okay I'm going to say something I know I'm going to regret, but what the hay...

I have never been good at making money in a good stock market, I am always expecting it to stumble and fall so I almost always jump out too soon or in too late. But in a bad market where things are all scattered I have usually done pretty well, not great but well enough. So far this year the S&P is down about 20% and I am up about 8%, not great but better than a poke in the eye.

As for borrowing money on credit I think that is a bad idea unless it is your only alternative, if you can borrow from your 401K and pay yourself back that would be a better option, at least you are paying the interest to yourself, and if your plan is losing money well.... If your plan is making money you would try to pay pack that loan as quickly as possible so you can earn the higher return.

As for doing the leveraged trading, well that's just way above my threshold for risk. That's kind of what the the guys in the 20s were doing and it led to a bunch of them jumping out of high windows.

 

[LadyLocust]

Okay I'm going to say something I know I'm going to regret, but what the hay...

I have never been good at making money in a good stock market, I am always expecting it to stumble and fall so I almost always jump out too soon or in too late. But in a bad market where things are all scattered I have usually done pretty well, not great but well enough. So far this year the S&P is down about 20% and I am up about 8%, not great but better than a poke in the eye.

As for borrowing money on credit I think that is a bad idea unless it is your only alternative, if you can borrow from your 401K and pay yourself back that would be a better option, at least you are paying the interest to yourself, and if your plan is losing money well.... If your plan is making money you would try to pay pack that loan as quickly as possible so you can earn the higher return.

As for doing the leveraged trading, well that's just way above my threshold for risk. That's kind of what the the guys in the 20s were doing and it led to a bunch of them jumping out of high windows.

I spoke w/ my FA today. I said it's really pathetic that we are at the point in our lives when we need to be pushing the savings for retirement and if ever there was a time when money wasn't working for us, now is the best time to spend it.

 

[joel]

As for borrowing money on credit I think that is a bad idea unless it is your only alternative, if you can borrow from your 401K and pay yourself back that would be a better option, at least you are paying the interest to yourself, and if your plan is losing money well.... If your plan is making money you would try to pay pack that loan as quickly as possible so you can earn the higher return.

It was what I did!
I now wish I had taken a loan out for $1000.00 for a year, regardless of the interest rates. Put $1000.00 in as high of an interest account as the credit Union would offer, before I took out my 401K account loan. Then pay the loan off on time, leaving the interest account to grow.
Each time I get a 401k loan, first take out a $1000.00 loan at the CU & put it in the account with the other money And negotiate an higher interest rate as the balance climbed.
This is because the only thing better than money is a good name or 800 credit score.
Why, because the many $50,000.00 k-plan loan that were paid off on time DO NOT count as credit, because it is your money & you don’t have to pay it back.

 

[UrbanHunter]

Talking with my wife about the Markets reminds me of the Good/Bad conservation in Ghost Busters. Yesterday discussion goes, the S&P has been falling for the last 5 days, wife says, "that's bad!" I say, "no that's good, it a good time to buy low". This morning I tell the wife the market is up 1.5% and shes, "oh has that's bad.." and I say, "no that's that good, because today is a good day to sell at a profit." She says, "I'm confused"

 

[Curmudgeon]

Keep an eye on the Fed today.

 

[joel]

The Fed raises rates by 0.75%: Its inflation battle continues

https://www.edwardjones.com/us-en/m...ket-news/market-pulse/fed-raises-rates-june22

 

[joel]

As expected, the Federal Reserve today raised rates by 0.75%, its largest increase in 28 years, bringing the federal funds rate to around 1.50%. Of note, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted in his comments that the FOMC's primary focus currently is on bringing down inflation in a "clear and convincing" manner over the next few months.

The markets welcomed this rate hike as a signal of credibility in the Fed's inflation-fighting mandate and a step in the right direction toward bringing interest rates back to more neutral territory. The S&P 500 headed higher by over 1.0% on the back of this move, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was higher by over 2.0%. Chair Powell did note that while these outsized Fed rate hikes should not be common, he would expect next month's meeting to also bring a 0.50% or 0.75% rate hike, depending on incoming data.

Overall, the FOMC projects the fed funds rate to head toward 3.4% in 2022, which would bring rates more in line with current market expectations and push the fed funds rate to restrictive territory. While this would tighten economic conditions and increase borrowing costs for consumers and corporations, we should also see an impact on core inflation, which we would expect to moderate by year-end.

The Fed's updated projections do not indicate a pending recession, but a slowdown is likely
The Fed also released today a new set of economic projections, which, as expected, lowered growth forecasts and raised inflation forecasts for 2022, although inflation for 2023 is still expected to be lower.

A couple of key takeaways from the Fed's June projections include

• Economic growth will slow to sub-2.0%, but a recession is not in the forecast: The Fed expects the labor market to cool, with the unemployment rate climbing to 3.9% next year, and GDP growth slowing to around 1.7%. While the forecast calls for slowing economic growth, these are not consistent with recessionary conditions; and
• Inflation will peak this year before moderating over the next two years: The Fed increased its inflation forecast for this year, bringing headline PCE inflation to 5.2%. However, it expects inflation to moderate to 2.6% next year and head to 2.2% in 2024. A downward trend in inflation would allow the Fed to raise rates at a more gradual pace.

Figure 1. The Fed's updated June projections