You lot need to study this for your preps

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Silent Earth

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A very useful piece of research for our community, I think its worthwhile reading it properly and making a few notes.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-caused-unrest-shortages-food-water-fuel.html

Chaos Map shows where deaths caused by unrest over shortages of food, water or fuel has happened across the world since 2005 as authors say future will only be more violent
  • The research team from Anglia Ruskin University plotted more than 1,300 deaths
  • Conflict, uprisings, looting, riots and suicides were tracked across the globe
  • Venezuela was the hardest hit by violent unrest in 2017 and suffered 92 deaths
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...tages-food-water-fuel.html#i-3b2e0c1e161b9282

By Jack Elsom For Mailonline

Deaths from violent unrest are set to spike in the coming years, according to researchers who have produced a 'Chaos Map' which lays bare the fallout of devastating famines and droughts.

The team from Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, plotted more than 1,300 deaths between 2005 and 2017 which were caused unrest sparked by natural resource shortages.

Conflict, uprisings, looting, riots and suicides were tracked across the globe and investigated to ascertain if they had been triggered by food, water or fuel insecurity.

The number of fatalities was also unearthed, and detailed on an interactive map where readers can compare how each country fared across the 12-year time frame.

Venezuela was the hardest hit by violent unrest in 2017, where 92 deaths were caused by its resource crisis.

Not a single country in the Western world suffered fatalaties from shortage-related violence.

Dr Davide Natalini and Professor Aled Jones, of Anglia Ruskin University, scanned reports covering food, water, and fuel insecurity shocks published since 2005 to plot the data.

They say their map can help people to understand the escalating instability and chaos that can occur when pressures caused by limited resources are compounded by factors such as climate change and rising populations.

The Chaos Map can help to predict and inform early responses to resource insecurity and social unrest by examining trends around past events, its authors say.

20131040-7609213-image-a-55_1571920669816.jpg

The number of fatalities was also unearthed, and detailed on an interactive map where readers can compare how each country fared across the 12-year time frame


20130972-7609213-image-a-36_1571920431252.jpg

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A mass protest sweeps through Caracas, Venezuela to pres the military to allow UN aid to help the economically crippled country, which suffers shortages of food, medicine and other basics.

They say this could prove useful for governments and non-governmental organisations (NGOs).

Prof Jones, director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, said: 'As climate change increases the severity of extreme weather over the coming years and we see continuing political instability in key oil-producing regions, there is likely to be an increased frequency and severity of physical shocks to our food, fuel and water supplies.

'Without proper strategies to combat these shocks, it is likely that reactive policies from governments will only make the impacts of these shocks worse, leading to bigger chaos events and more deaths.

20130974-7609213-image-a-37_1571920512933.jpg

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People look for food in the garbage due the extreme food shortages at Sabana Grande in Caracas, Venezuela

'In Europe, while we have already seen a limited number of deaths, without a full and transparent conversation between governments and its citizens around the need to move away from fossil fuels and more investment into resilient food and water systems, it is likely that we will not be immune to these events.

'It is difficult to pinpoint exactly what causes protests about rising fuel or food costs to turn violent, and this is where the risks lie.

'We hope the Chaos Map can build our understanding of these tipping points in society so we can hopefully avoid the worst impacts in the future.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...es-food-water-fuel.html#v-4596929508570085170

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...es-food-water-fuel.html#v-2042404708291791145

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ages-food-water-fuel.html#v-33289675585535202
 
No, it could never happen here......
Thats what they said and the Titanic and Pearl Harbour and 911 Fukushima etc Now remind me how many died in the dustbowl and in the wallstreet crash in the 1920s, The same attitude over in Europe said there would never be another genocide in Europe until Serbia/ Bosnia etc exploded. Indeed they also said the SECOND wall street crash in 2008 could not happen until it did.

They also said it was impossible for Venezuela to end up without power, food, water, sewage systems, doctors, medicines even toilet paper because it has the best natural resources in south America
In the UK they said it was impossible for Mad cow disease to jump to Humans
 
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Yes, the couldn’t happen here, that was definitely meant with sarcasm. I agree with the 9 meals quote too. That’s three days. I know lots of people that shop daily for their food. Having nothing but condiments in their fridge. And to top it off, what they buy is premade, prepackaged and usually precooked. I think these people are going to have a really hard time learning how to kill, clean and cook a squirrel! If we do loose electricity in the USA I believe there would be a 50% death toll in the first 6 months.
 
Yes, the couldn’t happen here, that was definitely meant with sarcasm. I agree with the 9 meals quote too. That’s three days. I know lots of people that shop daily for their food. Having nothing but condiments in their fridge. And to top it off, what they buy is premade, prepackaged and usually precooked. I think these people are going to have a really hard time learning how to kill, clean and cook a squirrel! If we do loose electricity in the USA I believe there would be a 50% death toll in the first 6 months.

Gotcha, thought i was misunderstanding. :)
 
most people here shop every 3 days or so, that coincidentally is the same amount of time as our "just in time" delivery system.
I believe in the UK we will be looking at a minimum of a 75% die off within the first few months.
 
Not so long back I had to work in Leeds and Manchester, we stayed in an apartment, it was one fifty in one block near the canal. there must be fifty or 60 such blocks in that area and I saw multiple similar apartment blocks in Manchester. Each pad had a kitchen with a sink, microwave and two 3 ft wall cupboards, one cupboard for pots n pans the other 3ft space for food. , That is the ONLY food storage space in these pads. WHY ? because on the ground floor of each block was either a Deli, Cafe or 24/7shop where the resident were expected to go for refreshments and meals. I doubt very much if they had enough food in the pads for 24 hours never mind 3 days.

I for one would not want to be anywhere near the middle of Hull, York, Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool or any modern trendy inner city area when TSHTF, because within 24 hours they will be starving.
 
most people here shop every 3 days or so, that coincidentally is the same amount of time as our "just in time" delivery system.
I believe in the UK we will be looking at a minimum of a 75% die off within the first few months.
I think it would also depend on the type of event, but 75% is not unreasonable in urban areas. Here in Texas I think it will be quite a bit less because there are still a lot of farmers and ranchers, and even in the smaller cities a lot of the city people have family in the country and will return to that lifestyle after SHTF. Houston, Austin, Dallas/ Fort Worth? Yeah it'll be closer to 75%.
 
those blocks sounds like something from the "judge dredd movie"..
Naaa they are very nice, modern , clean spacious stylish mix of student accomodation and young professional yuppy types apaterments. But no room for food in the flats and no supermarkets of general stores, just bistros, coffee bars, Sub-ways etc. All very chic and metropilitan, all deadly if TSHTF.
 
I think it would also depend on the type of event, but 75% is not unreasonable in urban areas. Here in Texas I think it will be quite a bit less because there are still a lot of farmers and ranchers, and even in the smaller cities a lot of the city people have family in the country and will return to that lifestyle after SHTF. Houston, Austin, Dallas/ Fort Worth? Yeah it'll be closer to 75%.
once the imports stop the UK given the acreage available, which gets less every year, we can only feed about 25% of the UK population self sufficiently, so the die off STARTS in the UK at 75% and goes on from there.
 
1300 deaths over the 12 year period of the study. For a population of 7 billion I find that hard to believe. Sounds very low.

Ya the numbers do sound awfully low, in Venezuela, officials alone purported 10,000 deaths in 2017 not the 92 deaths above stated and even then pretty much everybody said Venezuela undercut the numbers by a large margin. One can't sufficiently do any type of data collection and come to statistics in numbers in third world countries in part due to corrupt officials from these countries.
 
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If we do loose electricity in the USA I believe there would be a 50% death toll in the first 6 months.

Wow, that is crazy optimistic. Take an EMP type event that takes out the grid. It'll be 50% dead in the first 2 weeks. 6 months out? 95% dead?
 
Wow, that is crazy optimistic. Take an EMP type event that takes out the grid. It'll be 50% dead in the first 2 weeks. 6 months out? 95% dead?
I don’t think the panic would set in in just two weeks. In three or four the frustrations outdo start to boil over and it would get worse from there. I’m hoping 95% even after a long time is well on the high side but nothing would surprise me.
 
People hooked up to municipal water in the next county over can keep the water lines pressurized for 7 days on generator, sewer is another issue, after 8 days the sewer pumps will stop, supermarkets have 3 days of non perishable foods. People are going to know in very short order this isn't a local event so the rush to shop but in reality, how many people are actually going to show up for work to open these stores the next day!?! Depending on the time of day, looting going to start at least on the second day in large cities. A lot of people are going to see the cascading affect before they are affected themselves. I see First Responder numbers dwindling in a major event probably within the first week given they also have families too. I don't see anything orderly after the second day.

The only thing the government is concerned with after an event such as this is, continuity, assessing, operations and security of the infrastructure such as communications, command and control, response, hospitals, airports, rail etc... so don't expect help!
 
People hooked up to municipal water in the next county over can keep the water lines pressurized for 7 days on generator, sewer is another issue, after 8 days the sewer pumps will stop, supermarkets have 3 days of non perishable foods. People are going to know in very short order this isn't a local event so the rush to shop but in reality, how many people are actually going to show up for work to open these stores the next day!?! Depending on the time of day, looting going to start at least on the second day in large cities. A lot of people are going to see the cascading affect before they are affected themselves. I see First Responder numbers dwindling in a major event probably within the first week given they also have families too. I don't see anything orderly after the second day.

The only thing the government is concerned with after an event such as this is, continuity, assessing, operations and security of the infrastructure such as communications, command and control, response, hospitals, airports, rail etc... so don't expect help!

In much of metropilitan Europe and North America if the Electricity goes off then so does the Gas and WATER and SEWAGE as in many areas the Gas and Water /SEWAGE is pumped around by electric motors. No Leccy = No water in the toilet, No drinking water coming from the taps / faucets, No central heating, No lights, No Aircon, No Refridgeration, No fuel at the service stations, No street lights, No Phones, No Internet. Three days in summer and diseases WILL break out and evverything will begin to stink, Three days in winter and millions die of hypothermia.
 
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and don't forget the rats! when they had the bin men strike in Birmingham the refuse piled up on the streets and it stank! and the rats were all over it.
 
Thinking about what could and would happen, I might bug out if there is time and warning. If not, I'll dig in, wait till the masses have cut themselves down to size to make my job easier. Wait, stay quiet, exercise, practice and train, move little or none, prepare the house to look burned-out, stuff the staircase with un-needed furniture and be ready to repell possible entry. GP
 
If the entire power grid goes down... a possible scenario:
day 1: confusion
day 2: stores emptied
day 3: anger, fighting starts
Week1: city exodus begins
Week2: gang violence in full force. out-of-control riots. Destruction. Zero law enforcement/military. Chaos and mass murder begins.
Month1: 25% of the population dead? The unable to adapt die.
Month2: 50% of population dead? The unprepared begin to die.
And it goes downhill from there.
 
we have a saying in the UK, when the time comes to bug out it will be: cold, wet and......winter!
any sheeple that tries to leave a city and survive in the open in the winter isn't going to last very long, even in Britain.
and how many modern young women with their model looks and narrow cheekbones are going to put up with "roughing it" for very long?
 

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