A pandemic has begun and...

[DrPrepper]

personal isolation, nobody goes out, nobody comes in, until this thing has run its course.
with most diseases if not all the disease needs a human host to inhabit, it cannot live for much longer than 24 hours outside of the body, I think the only exception is HIV, maybe Ebola.
the disease will die when there are no more living human hosts to infect.

HIV cannot last very long outside of the human body - maybe 5 or 6 days at most in dried blood if the environment is not harsh. Other diseases like Hepatitis B can last about a week. Hepatitis C can last over 3 weeks outside the body. Other diseases such as the spores from Clostridioides difficile (a diarrheal disease) can last for many months outside the body and remain viable. Remember that certain diseases can infect animals,too, and then the animals can pass them back to humans. Other pathogens normally live in the environment, and can live their entire life away from humans - but can also infect humans and cause severe disease.

 

[lonewolf]

I think I read that HIV was found in a dead person several weeks after they died.
my main point is if I isolate myself I cannot get these diseases because I am not near infected people.
I avoid large numbers of people at most times, I live in a low population rural area well away from any large cities.

 

[DrPrepper]

I think I read that HIV was found in a dead person several weeks after they died.
my main point is if I isolate myself I cannot get these diseases because I am not near infected people.
I avoid large numbers of people at most times, I live in a low population rural area well away from any large cities.

However, don't forget the zoonotic transmission of disease- that is, the disease passing from animals to humans. You may be isolated, but the deer/quail/whatever that you shot for dinner may have been among infected people and be carrying the pathogen. Isolation and strict quarantine are great measures - but it is never 100% foolproof and you cannot assume that you are safe because you are isolated. You've got to add additional layers of protection - strict handwashing, wearing a mask outdoors as needed, etc. Some things are airborne transmission, meaning the pathogen floats in the air. If someone sick comes to your front door, and you wait until they leave before opening the door, you are still at risk of becoming infected.

 

[DrPrepper]

Another thing I just thought of.... a pandemic starts out small - an outbreak of several cases here and there, then grows to epidemic proportions (limited to a couple of geographic areas), and then as the cases multiply and jump boarders, the epidemic becomes pandemic, circling the globe. Many diseases have a prodrome, meaning a period when the symptoms are very mild and non-specific, barely noticeable, but they may still be contagious. Other diseases are totally symptom-free in the incubation period while still being contagious. So..... if you are hearing about that epidemic in China or Africa and decide it is time to hit Costco, the guy in line next to you who does not look at all sick (but just got back from a business trip to China or Africa!) may infect you and everyone else standing in that general area. Isolation after the pandemic hits is good - but there is still a risk in the period before an epidemic goes pandemic.

 

[hiwall]

Order additional supplies early. Once delivered those boxes can just sit outside for a couple weeks. Use a stick to move the boxes as necessary. Flip the boxes so the sun hits all sides.

 

[DM1791]

personal isolation, nobody goes out, nobody comes in, until this thing has run its course.
with most diseases if not all the disease needs a human host to inhabit, it cannot live for much longer than 24 hours outside of the body, I think the only exception is HIV, maybe Ebola.
the disease will die when there are no more living human hosts to infect.

It really depends on the pathogen you're talking about and the environmental conditions. Some bacteria can become spores that remain active for hundreds, even thousands of years, and only reanimate when conditions are right. Viruses usually have less success since their genetic material can be damaged by UV radiation, but if they are in a protected area and in a dry environment, there's nothing to say that some viruses with thicker lipid shells couldn't also survive for extended periods of time outside the body.

From my research into viruses I can tell you that, under the right conditions, Ebola can remain active and infectious on surfaces for days at the time. Longer if it is in a dried biofluid like dried blood or mucus. Dead Ebola patients are often FAR more infectious than live ones also.

 

[DM1791]

Another thing I just thought of.... a pandemic starts out small - an outbreak of several cases here and there, then grows to epidemic proportions (limited to a couple of geographic areas), and then as the cases multiply and jump boarders, the epidemic becomes pandemic, circling the globe. Many diseases have a prodrome, meaning a period when the symptoms are very mild and non-specific, barely noticeable, but they may still be contagious. Other diseases are totally symptom-free in the incubation period while still being contagious. So..... if you are hearing about that epidemic in China or Africa and decide it is time to hit Costco, the guy in line next to you who does not look at all sick (but just got back from a business trip to China or Africa!) may infect you and everyone else standing in that general area. Isolation after the pandemic hits is good - but there is still a risk in the period before an epidemic goes pandemic.

This actually plays a big role in my upcoming book, and it is spot on. For a virus like Ebola there is often a period of mild symptoms between 2-6 days after infection where a patient may develop body aches, low fever, nausea, and headache (the exact same initial symptoms of about 30 viral infections). Then the symptoms seem to dissipate. That is actually the virus attacking the white blood cells and destroying the immune system of the patient, which leads to a reduction in inflammation response and reduced symptoms. The patient thinks they're getting better. Then 8-20 days after infection, the symptoms return and can become critical within a matter of hours.

But during the intervening period between initial low level symptoms and full on catastrophic ebola hemorrhagic fever, the patient IS CONTAGIOUS. So by the time you hear about a pandemic, it can often be too late to go and get supplies. Important to consider, especially if you are in an urban environment with a concentrated population.

 

[fteter]

I would like to think I would see it coming, as I'm a regular visitor to http://outbreaks.globalincidentmap.com/home.php#. So gather my loved ones early - make that last run for supplies if I thought it was comparatively safe to do so (make the run early enough to beat the crowds, adequate protection, etc). Self-quarantine the group. Lots of washing - hands and surfaces. N95 masks when in doubt. And then ride it out - a pandemic with a high mortality rate will burn out in short order as it runs out of hosts.

 

[Sourdough]

And then ride it out - a pandemic with a high mortality rate will burn out in short order as it runs out of hosts.

And then WHAT.......??? The thing that seems to be getting missed in this thread is that "IF" (and it is a huge "IF") this happened, people ain't going to get an all clear sign, safe to exit their home notice, go to your place of employment, and everything will be wonderful.

The stores would not be stocked with food, the water utility would have stopped functioning months earlier. Everything would be looted, rotting human bodies would be everywhere. There would be abandoned gridlock everywhere. No fuel, no electric.
I fail to see the distinction between any of the massive SHTF events, that last for a longer period then the individual is 100% prepared to ride out. Be that 72 hours, or three years of food, water and shelter.

We are conditioned to "Someone will fix everything. and it will be wonderful like it was pre-event".

I sometimes wonder why people ignore that the heads of government and industry have a "TOTALLY" different survival plan. Paid for with your money.

 

[SheepDog]

Even in the worst possible pandemic there are individuals that are immune or at least resistant. That was true of the great plagues and it is true of AIDS, Ebola and every other disease I can think of.
There are likely people in every profession that will not be overcome. There will also be those who are never infected. No pandemic kills an entire population.

 

[Sourdough]

Even in the worst possible pandemic there are individuals that are immune or at least resistant. That was true of the great plagues and it is true of AIDS, Ebola and every other disease I can think of.
There are likely people in every profession that will not be overcome. There will also be those who are never infected. No pandemic kills an entire population.

That is a valid point. One problem is few if any know 100% for sure they are immune. And if not 100% sure then they will behave the same as everyone else. My issue is that our social-economic-business systems functions when humans go to work and make it function. If everyone hides from everyone else, it will quickly fall apart, or turn into a world with zero law and zero order......total anarchy.

 

[SheepDog]

Well if everyone stays at home anarchy is OK. There will always be doctors and nurses that show up to help at the hospitals. There will always be the dedicated public servant that shows up to run the power grid and the water treatment plants and the nuclear power plants and the petroleum pipelines. There are likely to be truckers that want a payday who will deliver goods.
Heck, there are always people who stay in place when a cat 5 hurricane is coming at them.
Dedication or driven by money things will remain normal a lot more than you might think. In the worst case there is protection that can be worn to keep them safe.

 

[Caribou]

Working at a power plant or water facility is not a job with a lot of people present or working in close proximity. N95 masks and rubber gloves should keep the staff relatively safe. Likewise with truckers, swipe your card, fill the tanks, and head across country. If you bring your own food you don't have to contact many people at all.

A grocery clerk is another situation and the stores might make you do the self check lanes.