EMP Attack?

[user 7704]

I think the grid going down from hackers messing with the computers is more likely than from emp.

Brent, it will be some yahoo in his mom's basement with nothing else to do. Or some 17 year old in Russia just screwing around like they did with the credit cards.

 

[Brent S]

Brent, it will be some yahoo in his mom's basement with nothing else to do. Or some 17 year old in Russia just screwing around like they did with the credit cards.

No doubt, it will be from some source that most were not expecting. Most governments are smart enough to not actually do it from knowing of certain reprisal. That doesn't mean they haven't been snooping around and already know how though.

 

[Gazrok]

I think the grid going down from hackers messing with the computers is more likely than from emp.

The funny thing is, the antiquity of our grid is one of the factors that best protects it. Any successful attack on the grid would also have to contain some actual ground elements taking out physical equipment. And, because so much of the grid is made up of independent and offline systems, it'd be difficult to affect a larger area without a coordinated attack with both cyber and physical elements.

It's one of the reasons Congress continually ignores the threat to the grid. However, as more and more of the grid becomes automated and online, this risk is increasing exponentially, each year.

The largest problem remains the insanely long lead time to replace key components, should they need it. Some equipment would take up to 18 months to fill an order. Now, in an urgent situation, this may be a LOT less, but even still, can you imagine a major urban center without power for a month or two even? Pure chaos after a week or more.

 

[Maverick]

The funny thing is, the antiquity of our grid is one of the factors that best protects it. Any successful attack on the grid would also have to contain some actual ground elements taking out physical equipment. And, because so much of the grid is made up of independent and offline systems, it'd be difficult to affect a larger area without a coordinated attack with both cyber and physical elements.

It's one of the reasons Congress continually ignores the threat to the grid. However, as more and more of the grid becomes automated and online, this risk is increasing exponentially, each year.

The largest problem remains the insanely long lead time to replace key components, should they need it. Some equipment would take up to 18 months to fill an order. Now, in an urgent situation, this may be a LOT less, but even still, can you imagine a major urban center without power for a month or two even? Pure chaos after a week or more.

Many of the older transformers that feed the grid are now one of a kind meaning the company that produces them are no longer in business and no backup for replacement, that where the biggest problems exist and like you said Gaz, it would take boots on the ground in a coordinated attack (key word being coordinated) to take them out, hacking alone won't take the grid down, in most of the automated facilities still have manual switches in place. Any hacking caused blackout would be short term.

 

[Gazrok]

A friend of mine works for a company that builds these custom transformers, from parts they get overseas (due to cost, of course). Now, that's not ALL this company does of course (or they'd be out of business), but at least he had some insight for me.

He says, at best, crisis situation or not, it would take about 6 months to get ALL of the pieces made (from different manufacturers), gathered here (in the US), and then assembled, from the date of order, and that's pushing it...he said generally, 18 months is the quoted lead time for it, on the rare occasion it happens. He's a bit of a prepper too...for just this reason (initially, aside from us living in FL). Typically, his company assembles things like other electrical components for industries, large scale A/C wiring units and breaker boxes, etc. if I listened right.

It was all while he was giving us some horse riding and training lessons/tips, so kind of a background discussion, for me to remember all of the details. Suffice to say, I was scared enough about our grid's reliance upon others.

 

[Gazrok]

To be honest, in FL, we Irma victims were out of power for 4 to 5 days, and I'm pleasantly surprised, that people didn't lose it, and kept it together. I think it was because we all knew it would be back on soon enough. (and generally expected about a week, so we relieved at 5 days). But, even on day 4, you could see some cracks here and there...and I wager it wouldn't take many more days for folks to get a bit crazy....

I'd really like a LOT more visibility to how things are going in Puerto Rico, where they've been out all this time....

 

[Maverick]

Some of you may find this interesting, some information on the transformers and replacement.

Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability U.S. Department of Energy

 

[Brent S]

To be honest, in FL, we Irma victims were out of power for 4 to 5 days, and I'm pleasantly surprised, that people didn't lose it, and kept it together. I think it was because we all knew it would be back on soon enough. (and generally expected about a week, so we relieved at 5 days). But, even on day 4, you could see some cracks here and there...and I wager it wouldn't take many more days for folks to get a bit crazy....

I'd really like a LOT more visibility to how things are going in Puerto Rico, where they've been out all this time....

I agree with the knowledge of it will be back on soon helps keep people from showing their worst side. If everything was out for three weeks, and no hope of restoration you would start to see the worst in humanity.

 

[Maverick]

On YouTube their are a video called; It’s insightful with information
NatGeo - Electronic Armageddon