FLU pandemic caution (more an FYI than a warning)

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Silent Earth

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...ate-world-36-hours-kill-80million-people.html

Outbreak of a flu-like illness could circulate the world in 36 hours and kill 80million people, warns report by former World Health Organization chief
  • The 'A World At Risk' report was written by a team of high-ranking global experts
  • It said an outbreak like the 1918 flu pandemic could spread even faster nowadays
  • And world leaders' responses to warnings have been 'grossly insufficient' so far
 
We have the greatest technology now to fight these diseases. Things like clean water. sinks. indoor plumbing. Septic tanks. Even tremendous things like hand soap and wipies. These simple things would have prevented every plague we've ever had... (maybe the exception is AIDS? OK, the solution there is not to share needles & keep out of another guy's butt)

3rd world countries? Well, they're in trouble already. But there is no reason anywhere in the world should live without these most basic things. If they do, it's by choice, and they will live with any consequences.
 
We have the greatest technology now to fight these diseases. Things like clean water. sinks. indoor plumbing. Septic tanks. Even tremendous things like hand soap and wipies. These simple things would have prevented every plague we've ever had... (maybe the exception is AIDS? OK, the solution there is not to share needles & keep out of another guy's butt)

3rd world countries? Well, they're in trouble already. But there is no reason anywhere in the world should live without these most basic things. If they do, it's by choice, and they will live with any consequences.
I agree with you somewhat.

It never ceases to amaze me when countries spend millions of dollars on missiles and weapons, yet begrudge expense in vaccinations and basic sanitary facilities......and then ask for foreign aid because of some epidemic that happens because of their short-sightedness.
 
This certainly COULD happen. "Flu-like" illness though is very non-specific - would this be an actual influenza virus or something else? Maybe a variation like Avian flu that becomes transmittable between humans?
One thing that is now in our favor is that we have the entire science of epidemiology and much better understanding of spread of diseases, plus better science for treating them. So while this is possible, I think it's unlikely to be this serious unless there are already a lot of other society-disrupting factors, or it is engineered as a biological weapon.
 
This certainly COULD happen. "Flu-like" illness though is very non-specific - would this be an actual influenza virus or something else? Maybe a variation like Avian flu that becomes transmittable between humans?
One thing that is now in our favor is that we have the entire science of epidemiology and much better understanding of spread of diseases, plus better science for treating them. So while this is possible, I think it's unlikely to be this serious unless there are already a lot of other society-disrupting factors, or it is engineered as a biological weapon.
I agree with your points about better science for treating them, but disagree with your conclusions.

Certian diseases (like HIV) have been almost impossible to cure (although AIDS patients can lead a full, normal life with the new meds).

There is a better understanding of diseases.....but also greater overpopulation, a blatant disregard for the laws of nature, and new technology (like rapid air travel) that facilitates the spread of disease.

The fact that humans are destroying the Earth should be taken into account.

As an example, global warming has allowed certain disease-carrying tropical mosquitoes to spread further north.....so now we have zika in the United States. It's the same thing with dengue fever, LaCrosse encephalitis, west nile, and so on.

I believe that we actually have to care about our planet and do what's best for everyone if we don't want this state of affairs to get worse.

It means emancipating women, allowing free access to birth control, and recognizing that consequences cross international borders.

A lot of conservative, religious people on this forum disagree with me, but I'll run an argument by you.

Everyone says that climate change is "only a theory", that it "hasn't been proven", and that scientists have an ulterior motive in pushing for renewable energy.

Ok.....so what about the Cold War?

Our country spent trillions of dollars on nuclear weapons, espionage, and so forth because the USSR might attack us.

There was no proof that the Soviets were these shuffling, drooling, moral monsters who were just waiting for the slightest excuse to nuke us out of existence. The suspicion that they might do so was more than enough justification to defend spending trillions of dollars over several decades.

Why does this double standard exist?

The stakes--if the scientists are right--are much higher than the consequences of a nuclear war.....although I concede that the consequences of unmitigated climate change occur slower than a nuclear war.

Why the double standard? And ask yourself whom you would rather trust: politicians (most of whom seem to be crooks just by virtue of their existence) and military people, or scientists who gave us vaccines, MRI, anesthesia, aseptic surgery, and so on.

Even if you disagree with me, please tell me that you see my points.
 
Climate change is real ONLY NOT a product of man. It is a direct result of our sun and the effects of the solar system. Pollution is a direct effect of man. Over population is a direct effect on the planet. The real problem is not being addressed because people are being channeled in to the false Man causing climate change.
 
I agree with your points about better science for treating them, but disagree with your conclusions.

Certian diseases (like HIV) have been almost impossible to cure (although AIDS patients can lead a full, normal life with the new meds).

There is a better understanding of diseases.....but also greater overpopulation, a blatant disregard for the laws of nature, and new technology (like rapid air travel) that facilitates the spread of disease.

The fact that humans are destroying the Earth should be taken into account.

As an example, global warming has allowed certain disease-carrying tropical mosquitoes to spread further north.....so now we have zika in the United States. It's the same thing with dengue fever, LaCrosse encephalitis, west nile, and so on.

I believe that we actually have to care about our planet and do what's best for everyone if we don't want this state of affairs to get worse.

It means emancipating women, allowing free access to birth control, and recognizing that consequences cross international borders.

A lot of conservative, religious people on this forum disagree with me, but I'll run an argument by you.

Everyone says that climate change is "only a theory", that it "hasn't been proven", and that scientists have an ulterior motive in pushing for renewable energy.

Ok.....so what about the Cold War?

Our country spent trillions of dollars on nuclear weapons, espionage, and so forth because the USSR might attack us.

There was no proof that the Soviets were these shuffling, drooling, moral monsters who were just waiting for the slightest excuse to nuke us out of existence. The suspicion that they might do so was more than enough justification to defend spending trillions of dollars over several decades.

Why does this double standard exist?

The stakes--if the scientists are right--are much higher than the consequences of a nuclear war.....although I concede that the consequences of unmitigated climate change occur slower than a nuclear war.

Why the double standard? And ask yourself whom you would rather trust: politicians (most of whom seem to be crooks just by virtue of their existence) and military people, or scientists who gave us vaccines, MRI, anesthesia, aseptic surgery, and so on.

Even if you disagree with me, please tell me that you see my points.
I sure as hell don't trust any of them, but at least politicians are elected, the others are not.
 
Ok.....so what about the Cold War?
Why does this double standard exist?

Apples and oranges. Evidence of the USSR threat was real. Iron Curtain, Korean war, Vietnam war, Cuba missile crisis. Anyone who didn't think the cold war defense strategy was an absolute necessity is living in another alternate universe. And it never even got close to bankrupting the nation.

Now this fake climate change nonsense. It's trail of evidence? Starvation in the 60's, never happened. Global cooling in the 70's, never happened. Global warming in the 90's: didn't happen. Global warming in the 2000's: didn't happen & the polar caps are still there & doing great. 2010's: Climate change: yawn. Remember Al Gore's "Hockey Stick" graph that in 2016, we're be out-of-control rising CO2 levels & we'd all be dying? Look around, wrong again! They always predict that in 10 years the world will end and their predictions are always wrong. How can you give them any credibility with this track record? Don't believe me, review this great historic summary: https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions

Also look at the costs. $90 Trillion over 10 years for the "Green New Deal", that's $9 trillion per year and the feds take in about $3 trillion. Whether climate change is real or not, those expenses are real and will 100% guarantee the complete economic collapse of our country. And all the while, the biggest polluters like China & India will keep doing exactly what they are doing, so our $90 trillion won't make a difference in the environment but it will ruin our nation.

You said who do you trust, politicians with ulterior motives and greed or scientists with ulterior motives & greed? Rather than those choices, how about the choice of a known history of lies or a known history of provable evidence?
 
pls,don't make this a thread about climate,there are other threads for that, but this is something to really think about,it's not long ago some diceases were gone and thanks to STUPID anti-vaccers their back, sure our science is better now than before, but very few new vaccines and anti-biotics have been
developed lately and of the latter,they have been simply overused to treat something they have no effect over.

as many here already said we are far better equipped now to spread something nasty around this globe and no Gov will be able to react in time,there will
only be "damage control" and that's it.

it's not long ago ( a week prolly ) as my "dear, dear neighbor" had an uuups,its an accident and a small fire in one of their facilities where they have ebola and anthrax, so hopefully they contained the spread of the shyt..
 
pls,don't make this a thread about climate,there are other threads for that, but this is something to really think about,it's not long ago some diceases were gone and thanks to STUPID anti-vaccers their back, sure our science is better now than before, but very few new vaccines and anti-biotics have been
developed lately and of the latter,they have been simply overused to treat something they have no effect over.

as many here already said we are far better equipped now to spread something nasty around this globe and no Gov will be able to react in time,there will
only be "damage control" and that's it.

it's not long ago ( a week prolly ) as my "dear, dear neighbor" had an uuups,its an accident and a small fire in one of their facilities where they have ebola and anthrax, so hopefully they contained the spread of the shyt..
Yes, anti vaxxers are incredibly stupid and may contribute to a global pandemic if they get out of control.
But I think the "accidents" at labs are a bigger threat, but the previously mentioned "flu-like" illnesses are not the greatest threat. Maybe a virus like ebola engineered to spread through airborne transmission or something like that. While there are certainly other dangerous viruses out there, the issue with a virus like HIV (mentioned earlier as an example of an incurable illness) is that it is also not easily transmittable by casual contact, which makes it and similar diseases unlikely to reach a pandemic state.

On the other hand I was reading recently about the development of antibiotics and was more than a little concerned about the lack of development of new antibiotics. I don't see that it can be a result of exhausting possible bacteria-death methods that don't harm humans but rather more likely a different focus by the pharmaceutical field on more high-dollar drugs. So if they could genetically engineer a bacterial infection that is resistant to all known antibiotics and make it spread by airborne transmission (like pneumonic plague, the airborne version of bubonic plague), that could quickly achieve a pandemic effect as well.
 
Yes, anti vaxxers are incredibly stupid and may contribute to a global pandemic if they get out of control.
But I think the "accidents" at labs are a bigger threat, but the previously mentioned "flu-like" illnesses are not the greatest threat. Maybe a virus like ebola engineered to spread through airborne transmission or something like that. While there are certainly other dangerous viruses out there, the issue with a virus like HIV (mentioned earlier as an example of an incurable illness) is that it is also not easily transmittable by casual contact, which makes it and similar diseases unlikely to reach a pandemic state.

On the other hand I was reading recently about the development of antibiotics and was more than a little concerned about the lack of development of new antibiotics. I don't see that it can be a result of exhausting possible bacteria-death methods that don't harm humans but rather more likely a different focus by the pharmaceutical field on more high-dollar drugs. So if they could genetically engineer a bacterial infection that is resistant to all known antibiotics and make it spread by airborne transmission (like pneumonic plague, the airborne version of bubonic plague), that could quickly achieve a pandemic effect as well.
I agree with you.

Even if pneumonic plague wasn't engineered to be antibiotic resistant, it would still cause a horrible number of deaths.

Certain antibiotics--like penicillin--don't even work against plague to begin with.

The antibiotics that work are streptomycin and tetracyclines.

Pneumonic plague is the most contagious disease currently known to medical science, and is about 98% fatal without treatment.

Even with modern medicine, plague is a difficult disease to contain and treat.
 
I agree with you.

Even if pneumonic plague wasn't engineered to be antibiotic resistant, it would still cause a horrible number of deaths.

Certain antibiotics--like penicillin--don't even work against plague to begin with.

The antibiotics that work are streptomycin and tetracyclines.

Pneumonic plague is the most contagious disease currently known to medical science, and is about 98% fatal without treatment.

Even with modern medicine, plague is a difficult disease to contain and treat.
Fortunately it is controlled with proper hygiene (no rats running around with fleas, which serve as animal vectors for plague). But in a situation where modern society was already disrupted, I can easily see it causing many deaths, as it has done multiple times throughout history.
 
I suspect the high casualty rate with the flu in centuries past are from not being able to reduce the fever . It was common to have thousands of deaths as the flu swept through a Country . About 8 years ago when the swine flu was going around We got it . The fever would have reached lethal heights if We hadn't had fever reducers .
 
Kate, your comment about anti-vaxers is a bit extreme. Can you give one example where a population mostly vaccinated had a serious outbreak causing 100's or even dozens of deaths? While your message often parroted, I've never heard of a single critical real-world situation.

Now I'm sure you can find where there have been small outbreaks of one thing or another, and maybe a dozen or two got sick. But with vaccines or without, I still say the #1 cause of epidemic-avoidance is indoor plumbing. Basic hygiene and common (not-so-common any more) sense. Show me modern places where epidemics killing 100's happen and I'll show you a 3rd world dump. Examples: AIDS & ebola in Africa. Sure, colds and flus make their rounds every year, but those are mostly minor inconveniences and the few that die were nearly-all in failing health already.
 
Kate, your comment about anti-vaxers is a bit extreme. Can you give one example where a population mostly vaccinated had a serious outbreak causing 100's or even dozens of deaths? While your message often parroted, I've never heard of a single critical real-world situation.

Now I'm sure you can find where there have been small outbreaks of one thing or another, and maybe a dozen or two got sick. But with vaccines or without, I still say the #1 cause of epidemic-avoidance is indoor plumbing. Basic hygiene and common (not-so-common any more) sense. Show me modern places where epidemics killing 100's happen and I'll show you a 3rd world dump. Examples: AIDS & ebola in Africa. Sure, colds and flus make their rounds every year, but those are mostly minor inconveniences and the few that die were nearly-all in failing health already.
Regarding anti-vaxxers, I said it could happen, not that it has happened. Moreover, I said it could happen IF they get out of control, which hasn't yet happened. But I think the measles scare should be enough to make intelligent people think twice before refusing to get vaccinated.
Indoor plumbing is great for preventing the transmission of cholera, hepatitis A, dysentery, etc. It does little to prevent the spread of flu, or measles, or the plague. While few people may die of most strains of flu, some are more deadly than others. In fact, some strains of flu are quite deadly to younger, healthy individuals because they can trigger a "cytokine storm" that causes fluid to build up in the lungs and other things that can contribute to death. So all it takes is the wrong strain of flu (like the 1918 swine flu) and millions could, indeed die, especially if not vaccinated. Any virus similarly transmitted, if sufficiently deadly, could have the same result, and indoor plumbing wouldn't do a damn thing to prevent it.
 
Kate,

that is not true at all. Historically, plagues are spread due to lack of cleanliness. Here is one example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plague_of_London , the last outbreak of Bubonic Plague in London was spread by fleas & rats.

If you shake hands with someone, wash your hands (flu). Keep clothing clean. Have sealed, proper disposal of human wastes via septic/sewage systems.

And in America today, this is proven more true than ever. All these 'homeless camps' like Los Angeles are being centers for disease transmission. No indoor plumbing, no proper waste handling. And most of the people there did get their vaccine shots. I've seen articles about Legionnaire's disease, even some varieties of the Plague in those camps. It comes down to indoor plumbing.
 
Now we get back to politics. With all the "Healthcare" proposal taking place in Washington, almost all of it involving controlling the cost of medication (which I have to agree is WAY to high in some areas). But the downside of this, where is the incentive to develop new drugs, antibiotic and vaccines. I am afraid, in normal DC fashion, Washington will overreact and remove all incentives resulting in NOONE developing the next generation of medicines. I don't have any answers but both sides of this kinds of scares me. Somehow the price of medicine has to be brought down so the average person can afford it but we DO NOT want to discourage the development of new medicines. I sure hope there is someone that can come up with an answer. There is a fine line there that I don't know how to find it.

Discussion two, While I do believe in most of the "major" vaccines that has controlled a lot of the childhood diseases. Today, there are WAY too many vaccines that are "recommended". I do not and will not allow the administrati0n of any Vaccine just because a doctor said me or my kids needed it. I would need a lot more details than the standard scare tactic. This has turned into a case where "Too Much of a Good Thing". I do not consider myself an "anti-vaxer" but more of a "limited-vaxer".
 
Discussion two, While I do believe in most of the "major" vaccines that has controlled a lot of the childhood diseases. Today, there are WAY too many vaccines that are "recommended". I do not and will not allow the administrati0n of any Vaccine just because a doctor said me or my kids needed it. I would need a lot more details than the standard scare tactic. This has turned into a case where "Too Much of a Good Thing". I do not consider myself an "anti-vaxer" but more of a "limited-vaxer".
This is pretty much where I stand on it.
 
I'm sorry, but I'm with vaccines and indoor plumbing both.

Polio used to infect hundreds of thousands of people in the USA as recently as the 1950s.

There are three strains of polio. Two strains have been completely eradicated in the human population, and as for the third strain?

Less than 40 cases worldwide last year.

Not 40,000, not 400.....less than 40 total cases.

Why?

Because of vaccines.

There is a man who is a personal hero of mine. His name was Maurice Hilleman. He was a microbiologist who discovered almost 40 different vaccines in his lifetime. He also discovered ways to preserve, store, and transport vaccines.

When you work the numbers, it can be proven that he has saved the lives of well over 225 million people.

Yet almost no one has heard of him.

To me, his accomplishments are more miraculous than the total accumulated miracles of any 100 Catholic saints. Religious people will say that he was a scientist, so his accomplishments weren't miraculous at all......but who is to say that his inspiration and talent didn't come from God?

I better shut up before I open up another can of worms.

---------------------

Added later--I misspelled Hilleman's name and made a correction.
 
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I suspect the high casualty rate with the flu in centuries past are from not being able to reduce the fever . It was common to have thousands of deaths as the flu swept through a Country . About 8 years ago when the swine flu was going around We got it . The fever would have reached lethal heights if We hadn't had fever reducers .
The high death rate from the flu is caused--more often than not--by 'cytokine storm', which is a result of the immune system.

I'm oversimplifying things, but a cytokine storm happens when the immune system attacks the virus in the lungs.

The immune system is very, very aggressive. You can think of your immune system as being an army of psycho Green Berets who take no prisoners and who don't care about collateral damage.

This collateral damage is what cause death in the flu, as the body is indiscriminately attacking healthy tissue along with the virus in a carpet-bombing type of attack.
 
Now we get back to politics. With all the "Healthcare" proposal taking place in Washington, almost all of it involving controlling the cost of medication (which I have to agree is WAY to high in some areas). But the downside of this, where is the incentive to develop new drugs, antibiotic and vaccines. I am afraid, in normal DC fashion, Washington will overreact and remove all incentives resulting in NOONE developing the next generation of medicines. I don't have any answers but both sides of this kinds of scares me. Somehow the price of medicine has to be brought down so the average person can afford it but we DO NOT want to discourage the development of new medicines. I sure hope there is someone that can come up with an answer. There is a fine line there that I don't know how to find it.

We've had some of this discussion, but it may pre-date you. Here is how big pharma makes money. They spend $100 million to develop drug D for illness I. They sell 100,000 doses of D in the USA for $500 per dose. At the same time they sell 5,000,000 doses to the rest of the world for $20. Meanwhile it costs $15 per dose to make it. Yes, everyone benefits, but only the USA pays the bill for the development. Why not Europe? Canada? Australia? China? India? Africa? Why not? Seriously, why not. The real cost is that the first 5 million doses is $20, really you should say $40 to cover profits to cover other products that didn't work out. I can see charging in the US a little more, maybe $60. But today it's a 10x if not 100x difference.

An example, a while back a friend who works in a hospital mentioned insulin. The hospital buys it for under $1 and sells a single vial for $90. That isn't profit, that's manslaughter. That is what big pharma is doing to the USA, and it needs to stop. They can charge a reasonable price across the world, still make their profit, and still be able to do the next medicine.
 
We've had some of this discussion, but it may pre-date you. Here is how big pharma makes money. They spend $100 million to develop drug D for illness I. They sell 100,000 doses of D in the USA for $500 per dose. At the same time they sell 5,000,000 doses to the rest of the world for $20. Meanwhile it costs $15 per dose to make it. Yes, everyone benefits, but only the USA pays the bill for the development. Why not Europe? Canada? Australia? China? India? Africa? Why not? Seriously, why not. The real cost is that the first 5 million doses is $20, really you should say $40 to cover profits to cover other products that didn't work out. I can see charging in the US a little more, maybe $60. But today it's a 10x if not 100x difference.

An example, a while back a friend who works in a hospital mentioned insulin. The hospital buys it for under $1 and sells a single vial for $90. That isn't profit, that's manslaughter. That is what big pharma is doing to the USA, and it needs to stop. They can charge a reasonable price across the world, still make their profit, and still be able to do the next medicine.
A lot of times, you and I don't see eye to eye.....but here, I largely agree with you.

In Florida, price-gouging during a disaster (defined as charging an unrealistically high price on a neccesity like water, food, or diapers) is quite illegal.

I wonder how pharmecutical companies get away with charging prices at a thousand percent mark-up on life saving meds during an epidemic......and it's not price-gouging during a disaster?

I never understood this double-standard.
 
Ok, so you vaccinate your kids and yourself, what's there to worry about?
I'm allowed to worry about my fellow man.

Part of why my medical expenses are so high is because I'm helping to pay for other peoples' stupidity.

People who get sick and rack up medical bills that they can't afford make my medical care more expensive.
 
Being a fair minded person I believe what we pay is what the world should pay or we can reverse it, what the world pays is what we pay. Equality in all things.
 
Being a fair minded person I believe what we pay is what the world should pay or we can reverse it, what the world pays is what we pay. Equality in all things.
I agree in principle, but I have a minor quibble.

Some things are more expensive because of the cost of transportation.

Heroin, for example, is about as cheap as any other kind of produce in Burma or Afghanistan where it's cultivated......but horribly expensive here in the USA because of the cost of transporting it.

If the price of the medicine is the same everywhere, does that mean that we're paying the same transportation costs here where it's manufactured as a Sherpa in Tibet who lives in the Himalayas?
 
Kevin, we should pay the same drug price and each user can pay their own shipping cost. Equal treatment and equal costs. Live in the out reach area's, then they pay the shipping. If it is manufactured in a foreign and I want it, I pay for the shipping.
 
We've had some of this discussion, but it may pre-date you. Here is how big pharma makes money. They spend $100 million to develop drug D for illness I. They sell 100,000 doses of D in the USA for $500 per dose. At the same time they sell 5,000,000 doses to the rest of the world for $20. Meanwhile it costs $15 per dose to make it. Yes, everyone benefits, but only the USA pays the bill for the development. Why not Europe? Canada? Australia? China? India? Africa? Why not? Seriously, why not. The real cost is that the first 5 million doses is $20, really you should say $40 to cover profits to cover other products that didn't work out. I can see charging in the US a little more, maybe $60. But today it's a 10x if not 100x difference.

An example, a while back a friend who works in a hospital mentioned insulin. The hospital buys it for under $1 and sells a single vial for $90. That isn't profit, that's manslaughter. That is what big pharma is doing to the USA, and it needs to stop. They can charge a reasonable price across the world, still make their profit, and still be able to do the next medicine.
I don't work in the pharmaceutical industry so I'm certain there are factors I do not understand. But the profits they make are quite exorbitant compared to the cost of production, even, I think, when considering the development costs. And things like insulin that have been around for years (even the newer insulins are not that new) but they still cost hundreds of dollars - the only reason they can get away with this is because people NEED it to survive. Essentially they are profiting off others' pain - it's immoral and unethical but difficult to combat without resorting to price controls, which inhibit innovation cause shortages of supply.
 
Kate, in all fairness, the development/test phases of a new drug far exceed the 10 year cost of producing the drug. The problem is that on the same day, you can buy a drug in Dallas for $1000, and get the same drug made at the same factory in Indonsia for $10.

Insulin is one drug that is far past the original development time/cost. The only way to drop the cost is to get more competition. A gov't can't force it, but natural evolution of industry should make it happen. I'm no fan of price controls, that is gov't interference. But you do have alternatives. Just search for "Bee Tea diabetes". It may not work for type1 diabetics, but it has been studied & works better than many drugs for typical type 2 diabetes. And it's nearly free. Real competition solves many, many problems.
 

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