Hey been awhile since I checked into this thread...wanted to follow up on this...with your extensive background in ARES and such, you are probably already aware...but if anyone plans on using FRS or GMRS bands during an emergency they will have some HUGE problems! There are only a few frequencies and there may be a few thousand folks trying to utilize those (6 to 12?) "channels"...the system will be severely overloaded.
Without a license, a operator would be subject to the rules which would limit them to one half of one watt on FRS and one watt with a non detachable antenna on GMRS.
I doubt if you would hear people for more then a couple of miles - we use GMRS while hunting. With the privacy codes - there is lot's of traffic, but always a quiet place to talk.
Cell phones will probably provide the bulk of the communications for most people - since they already own them and use them, and they do not require any type of investment into more radios or a license.
Wireless communications - your antenna to my antenna is becoming a thing of the past.
The same would apply to the 40 channel CB's - a significant emergency in a populated area would render FMR, GMRS, and CB practically useless!
That is why I have a ham license - it opens up literally thousands of frequencies for just this type of communication. I have a base station and several HT's (handhelds) for 2 meter - and I have a HF base station covering 80m - 15m. I just finished equipping two anti-EMP kits for two of my vehicles (one more to go) that have 10m radios, power supplies, dipoles, and 50' of coax cable (and instructions on how to set it all up)!
Communications is very overlooked and unplanned for by many folks trying to set supplies aside for everything from disasters due to tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc. - to the "end of the world" scenarios. I think we all need to review our plans relating to this subject!
I'm sure that you are right.
The population of hams in the USA today is only .015%
With such a small population, and most people only having a handheld radio - that will rely on local repeaters to supply their communications needs - I doubt if they will see much use if any, except in the more populated areas.
With a over-saturation of amateur radio two meters repeaters and a lack of use by all - I would predict that most repeaters would fail within the first week.
Even clubs and repeater owners would be more concerned with self preservation then with keeping the repeater on the air.
Because there is no arranged fuel delivery schedule, even if the repeater has a fuel generator back up, when the fuel ran out - the repeater would just stop working.
This is the reason why it is so important to rely more on simplex communications then repeaters and handheld radios.