Think there will be multiple waves of deaths, hitting different places, at different times.
The first wave is suicides by people who know what is coming and can't face it.
Next we will lose diabetics, many old folks, many of the people on SSRI's, when their meds run out, a lot of recreational drug users.
A lot of people will die by accident as they try to learn to survive. Fires, Burns, CO poisoning, food poisoning, etc. People trying figure out all the stuff we already know but starting from scratch in the middle of it, trying to piece together things they saw once in a movie or read online and getting it wrong.
Starvation, I think roughly starting 30 days in, peaking at 90 days after the last grocery store closes. This is important because its very likely government WILL function for some time and pull together to provide food, which will likely fail ,but may mean that true starvation doesn't being until some time much later than the actual lights out date.
This will be very bad news for a lot lightweight preppers, say, people with a few months worth of food, who start living off their preps day one, and in the end, run out of their preps about the same time all the non-preppers get really desperate.
This was why I kept re-supplying during the start of covid, even though I could have locked down for a long time, I didn't want to start actually using preps until I had to, so instead I just trusted my PPE and kept re-supplying and never actually depleted my stocks but grew them significantly even when other people where running out. A policy I've kept to this very day (successfully).
Deaths from violence, starting on day one...and peaking several months or years later. This curve will be VERY dependent on specifics of what is going on. Severity of destruction dose not track with severity of violence, its totally dependent on public perception and mood. We could get massive violence from a minor disaster, and vis versa, depending on region, timing and national mood.
Deaths from uncontrolled disease, seasonal based and growing worse ever season until die-off is so extreme they burn out. Malaria will be a major one a few years in.
Throughout the transition, there will be multiple peaks, multiple 'eye of the storm' periods where it may be relatively safe. It will require careful and constant monitoring for the time to 'choose your moment' to get certain things done.