Rail deliveries of grain to be stopped ?

[WVDragonlady]

Apparently, the railroads are stopping grain shipments to beef and dairy cattle.
I suggest people stock up on powdered milk, plain yogurt (to use to make your own) and whey protein. You can use the powdered milk to make a soft cheese.
(also the title of the article is a little over the top in my opinion but I guess anything to get people in a frenzy huh?)

https://survival.news/2022-04-06-he...eliveries-by-rail-to-be-partially-halted.html

US rail carriers, we have learned, are right now declaring force majeure and cancelling contracts on their obligations to deliver hundreds of thousands of rail cars of bulk grains to cattle and dairy operations in America. Right now, tens of thousands of dairy animals face starvation within weeks, and grain supplies will be gone in many areas in just a few days. Importantly, if dairy animals are culled because of a lack of grain, it will take many years to rebuild dairy operations to the present level.

Say goodbye to affordable milk, cheese, yogurt and whey protein.

Don’t forget this also affects infant formula.


*Also walmart is raising prices*

Walmart raising prices on 6,000 items, including food
Right now, Walmart is in the process of raising prices on over 6,000 items, many of which are food items. I’m told they’re also preparing for a weekly price adjustment in anticipation of rapid hyperinflation kicking in.

This means America’s largest retailer understands that the dollar is collapsing, and in order to stay in business, they’re going to have to rapidly increase prices on a frequency basis. First, it will be monthly, then weekly, then daily. The trillions in money printing will only drive the cycle of collapse into Weimar Republic territory, and at some point the dollar collapses and goes to zero.

 

[Spikedriver]

In a word, no. I work for the largest RR in America. #1, we generally don't deliver to Dairy and beef operations. We do deliver to grain dealers. Railroads generally dont handle small shipments like an individual feed lot would take any more. And even large feed lots generally don't have their own rail spurs. We deliver 120 cars at a time. #2, feed grain is almost always sourced locally - by truck. Feed mills usually don't have rail delivery nor do they have the capacity to ship out by rail.

This reporting is so bad I would take a long hard look at ever reading anything from this site again.

#2, high fertilizer prices are probably not going to skyrocket grain prices. The reporter is banking on people's ignorance of how our ag markets work. The farmer has to absorb the cost of that fertilizer but he can not raise the price of his grain to compensate. He gets the market price for said grain, whatever that price is. The only way that high fertilizer costs will affect the price of raw grains is if enough acres are left fallow that it creates a shortage. That's probably not going to happen, period. Larger operations that are better able to absorb the fertilizer costs will rent or buy the acres that the smaller operations can not afford to farm any longer. In my area, that means the guys with 800 to 1500 or 2000 acres of grain might get forced out and the guys with 15,000 acres will obtain the rights to that land.

 

[WVDragonlady]

alrighty then
forget I posted anything
quickly post in other threads so its moved down the line and forgotten.

wonder if the people who own the site with the original article knows how bad it is?

 

[Curmudgeon]

All I know is grain for feeding cattle for the local growers has almost doubled in the last couple of weeks.

Last week one local cattle farmer saw an increase of over 700 bucks in one week, nearly doubling his weekly feed cost, as he has a standing order for weekly deliveries. 700 bucks a week translate to 2800 more dollars per month, which is then passed on to the consumer through higher beef prices, which he has already raised hanging weight price to compensate. It will be cyclic, as grain prices go up, beef prices go up, demand goes down, either people won't pay the price or they simply can't afford too. From there less beef will be raised, creating shortages and higher prices of anything tied to the beef and dairy industries..

 

[Spikedriver]

@WVDragonlady if the railroads were suspending shipments to the ports or to certain other distribution points, I could see this having some validity. We ship a lot of grain in the midwest. The derailment I was working on a few days ago had many carloads of ground corn in it, headed south probably for Mexico. We also ship a lot of grain to delivery points on the Mississipi River where it's put on barges to go downriver, and to ports on the Gulf of Mexico. However, this is a lucrative business for us. It's not a large percentage of our total freight, but we make money on it. I can't see any of the Big 7 railroads suspending shipments of grain, nor can I see the Class 2 railroads or the short lines refusing to move grain either as they need all the business they can get.

What the largest railroads will do, however, is raise the cost of shipping smaller amounts of grain to the point where the small buyers can't afford it. If a buyer wants a good shipping rate from a railroad they need to be able to handle at least 100 cars at a time. My employer has done that on numerous occasions. We used to deliver coal to the powerplant at Iowa State University. Their siding could only handle around 50 carload at a time. Our bigwigs told them that they needed to order at least 110 cars at a time or their rates would be raised significantly. It became cheaper for ISU to have the coal trucked in from a holding facility 30 miles away. That kind of business practice has become common for us, and those of us with boots on the ground don't like it...

 

[Spikedriver]

All I know is grain for feeding cattle for the local growers has almost doubled in the last couple of weeks.

Last week one local cattle farmer saw an increase of over 700 bucks in one week, nearly doubling his weekly feed cost, as he has a standing order for weekly deliveries. 700 bucks a week translate to 2800 more dollars per month, which is then passed on to the consumer through higher beef prices, which he has already raised hanging weight price to compensate. It will be cyclic, as grain prices go up, beef prices go up, demand goes down, either people won't pay the price or they simply can't afford too. From there less beef will be raised, creating shortages and higher prices of anything tied to the beef and dairy industries..

How does he raise hanging price? Is he able to control his beef all the way through the processing phase? That would be ideal but I've never heard of any producer being able to do so. They get what the market beef price is when the cattle go to market. Even beef cost at the few local butcher shops here reflect that market price.

 

[Spikedriver]

@Curmudgeon I should note that I'm not casting doubt on your post, I'm just curious how that works for that farmer, because it's not a standard business model, and I'm always curious about alternative models.

 

[JustMe]

One thing I don't understand...........that when farmers are faced with this or similar situations that will greatly effect their crops or livestock and they know in advance they'll lose their 'money maker'............why in the heck don't they just send them to market, instead of letting them die. Atleast they'd get some money back and the people/consumer would have food

 

[Spikedriver]

One thing I don't understand...........that when farmers are faced with this or similar situations that will greatly effect their crops or livestock and they know in advance they'll lose their 'money maker'............why in the heck don't they just send them to market, instead of letting them die. Atleast they'd get some money back and the people/consumer would have food

They do sell them. I've never seen anyone just let them die, other than isolated cases of neglect. Typically those were cases where the farmer could feed them, but for whatever reason chose not to.

Often times the livestock gets sold to a neighboring producer. A guy 15 miles away bought my dad's small herd when dad sold out. Other times the critters go to the sale barn or the slaughterhouse buyer.

 

[Curmudgeon]

How does he raise hanging price? Is he able to control his beef all the way through the processing phase? That would be ideal but I've never heard of any producer being able to do so. They get what the market beef price is when the cattle go to market. Even beef cost at the few local butcher shops here reflect that market price.

Yes, hanging weight is for the beef, cutting and packaging, flash frozen and then picked up by the customer. It is all processed at his farm, from field to freezer. It was in the neighborhood of 2.75 IIRC per pound, and he had to up it to over 4 bucks a pound.

These aren't huge producers, they are family owned business.

 

[elkhound]

national beef herd has been being culled hard last couple of years.according to farm journal report we are at decades low. same for hogs...one hog farmer said he hoped americans are ready to pay for hog what they are paying for beef.

60% of this country is in drought currently.

 

[Spikedriver]

national beef herd has been being culled hard last couple of years.according to farm journal report we are at decades low. same for hogs...one hog farmer said he hoped americans are ready to pay for hog what they are paying for beef.

60% of this country is in drought currently.

Pork is definitely going up at the store. The major producers aren't culling herds in my area but I haven't followed what's going on in places like North Carolina where there is major production. Perhaps there is a cull going on there, I don't know.

Even with the drought there is still plenty of grain here in Iowa but so long as export demand is high it isn't going to seem like there's a lot of grain. Our yields across the vast majority of Iowa were actually pretty good last year. Drought resistant strains of corn are a real thing, and they work. But we can't keep going in a drought forever. If this year turns off dry like last year, things could get real interesting real quick. So far this year we've had a few good rains since the frost went out and if there's a few more we may be looking pretty good for spring and early summer but we're not in a good situation yet around here...

 

[elkhound]

In a word, no. I work for the largest RR in America. #1, we generally don't deliver to Dairy and beef operations. We do deliver to grain dealers. Railroads generally dont handle small shipments like an individual feed lot would take any more. And even large feed lots generally don't have their own rail spurs. We deliver 120 cars at a time. #2, feed grain is almost always sourced locally - by truck. Feed mills usually don't have rail delivery nor do they have the capacity to ship out by rail.

This reporting is so bad I would take a long hard look at ever reading anything from this site again.

#2, high fertilizer prices are probably not going to skyrocket grain prices. The reporter is banking on people's ignorance of how our ag markets work. The farmer has to absorb the cost of that fertilizer but he can not raise the price of his grain to compensate. He gets the market price for said grain, whatever that price is. The only way that high fertilizer costs will affect the price of raw grains is if enough acres are left fallow that it creates a shortage. That's probably not going to happen, period. Larger operations that are better able to absorb the fertilizer costs will rent or buy the acres that the smaller operations can not afford to farm any longer. In my area, that means the guys with 800 to 1500 or 2000 acres of grain might get forced out and the guys with 15,000 acres will obtain the rights to that land.

#1 east coast RR deliver small amounts of grain and goods.

#2 fertilizer...man you need to get out more..look at ag reports.its effecting it so much that some are not buying it and not going to plant corn at all.some areas its not even available..not my news..farm report news..they are not doom and gloom reports.its real world boots on ground reporting every week.eastern canada gets its fertilizer from russia as of last weekend oonly had 25% delivered. we are almost out of time.theres way way more news. i posted about it in various threads..you can look it up.not to mention high plains including kansas is in drought.southwest are is driest in 127 years.they calling it new dust bowl.they are pushing dirt out of roads already.fertilizer hit record this week at over $1400 a ton.farmers now are talking about filing insurance for 'no plant' already. we got real troubles !

 

[elkhound]

Pork is definitely going up at the store. The major producers aren't culling herds in my area but I haven't followed what's going on in places like North Carolina where there is major production. Perhaps there is a cull going on there, I don't know.

Even with the drought there is still plenty of grain here in Iowa but so long as export demand is high it isn't going to seem like there's a lot of grain. Our yields across the vast majority of Iowa were actually pretty good last year. Drought resistant strains of corn are a real thing, and they work. But we can't keep going in a drought forever. If this year turns off dry like last year, things could get real interesting real quick. So far this year we've had a few good rains since the frost went out and if there's a few more we may be looking pretty good for spring and early summer but we're not in a good situation yet around here...

i dont know how this will effect national herd..but smithfields raises 25% of all hogs in u.s. smithfields is owned by china...can they export all that pork and not be used here? are there laws against it? i dont eat pork but others do if they dont eat that then they eat something else thereby driving up prices possibly? we in edge of a mess i tell ya.

 

[Spikedriver]

#1 east coast RR deliver small amounts of grain and goods.

#2 fertilizer...man you need to get out more..look at ag reports.its effecting it so much that some are not buying it and not going to plant corn at all.some areas its not even available..not my news..farm report news..they are not doom and gloom reports.its real world boots on ground reporting every week.eastern canada gets its fertilizer from russia as of last weekend oonly had 25% delivered. we are almost out of time.theres way way more news. i posted about it in various threads..you can look it up.not to mention high plains including kansas is in drought.southwest are is driest in 127 years.they calling it new dust bowl.they are pushing dirt out of roads already.fertilizer hit record this week at over $1400 a ton.farmers now are talking about filling insurance for 'no plant' already. we got real troubles !

None of that is a thing in my area. Yes the high fertilizer is, but the farmers are buckling down and biting the bullet so far. The planting season is going on as usual. That may change, but not this year, across most of the corn belt anyway.

 

[Curmudgeon]

Pork is definitely going up at the store.

No joke, our local grocery store had 12 oz packs of bacon 2 weeks ago for 9.99 a pack. That's insane.

 

[Spikedriver]

No joke, our local grocery store had 12 oz packs of bacon 2 weeks ago for 9.99 a pack. That's insane.

It's not that bad here yet. ALDI used to be 3.00 for the regular bacon here, but it was 4.49 last week and I imagine it'll get worse. I'm afraid the days of buying pork loins for $1.49 are over...

 

[Weedygarden]

southwest are is driest in 127 years.

I've read that we are in a 1200 year drought. I don't know. The stories include climate change as the cause. I have no idea what is true.

 

[elkhound]

No joke, our local grocery store had 12 oz packs of bacon 2 weeks ago for 9.99 a pack. That's insane.

farmer i know says his numbers reflecting new production costs puts it at $15 a pound.

 

[Spikedriver]

I've read that we are in a 1200 year drought. I don't know. The stories include climate change as the cause. I have no idea what is true.

I don't know about all that either but it's definitely a dry cycle. If it weren't for modern corn varieties and irrigation, things would sure be a lot worse...

 

[Weedygarden]

I don't know about all that either but it's definitely a dry cycle. If it weren't for modern corn varieties and irrigation, things would sure be a lot worse...

Places in South Dakota are having the driest year in several decades.

 

[Spikedriver]

Places in South Dakota are having the driest year in several decades.

Yeah they got burned up pretty bad in the Dakotas last year. Some of Minnesota was in on that too.

 

[Camalot]

At what point do we take all of this over and try to undo the damage?