The risk of underestimating your "enemy"

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Joe SA

Joe SA

Awesome Friend
Neighbor
Joined
May 9, 2014
Messages
1,318
Location
South Africa
Amateur Radio Call Sign
ZS6JVZ
From what ive read here so far i can summize that most of you will fight tooth and nail to protect and defend what you hold dear, mostly family and friends. It must be applauded, many of you have done a great deal to put yourself in a better situation for when things go wrong, but in that lies a trap itself, some of you might be caught in it and others not. Its the trap of being over confident, and it leads to underestimation of your "enemy" those that want to take from you what is not theirs. A lot of us assume that the "enemy" is untrained, unskilled and mindless, and that is the worst assumption you can make, rather look at you enemy as clever, sly and purpose driven, rather think of him as able, trained and better skilled than yourself. This will take your prepping to a new level, because you would be able to deal with the mindless idiot more effectively, but also abel to deal with the cunning ones.
I think the worst case would be dealing with mass numbers of poeple that is intent on ridding you of your preps (food). You might resist them a few times, but each time you resist they will change tactics, they will find your weak spots, so it might be time to rethink, replan, think outside the box, get more poeple involved in what you are doing, get plan XY and Z in place. Something to think about, the drug dealing networks in cities and towns around your country, they have been dealing drugs for decades, evading law enforcement for years and as far as i know the problems around this is escalating. When the SHTF these criminals will band together with one goal in mind SURVIVAL, they do not have any remorse, they will kill anyone who oppose them, the so called turf wars that devide them currently will quickly disapear their numbers will probably quickly swell from hundreds to probably thousands in a matter of days, when city stores are empty (looted) they will know where the food is left (crops still growing in the fields, cattle goats, sheep, vinyards and so on and so on). If they happen to stumble apon your BOL you will be in for a hell of a ride.
 
You make some very valid points Joe and I accept in general most of them, BUT I do detect from my own recent research some very strong over confidence being expressed by some Suidlanders on forums and You Tube etc. there almost blind reliance on bugging out to rural white farm communities as one sign of unification and solidarity to me is alarming. I see almost no evidence of my South Afrikaan friends have any viable alternatives such as using boats and planes to bug out overseas to so place safer if the Black community in SA do decide its time to wipe out whitey. The one and only article I have seen showing multiple options for a south African family involved a 44 ft boat heading for Madagascar if the family were driven to desperation. I don't see anything like enough alternative options even being discussed ?? tell me I am wrong my vriend
 
Northern Raider said:
You make some very valid points Joe and I accept in general most of them, BUT I do detect from my own recent research some very strong over confidence being expressed by some Suidlanders on forums and You Tube etc. there almost blind reliance on bugging out to rural white farm communities as one sign of unification and solidarity to me is alarming. I see almost no evidence of my South Afrikaan friends have any viable alternatives such as using boats and planes to bug out overseas to so place safer if the Black community in SA do decide its time to wipe out whitey. The one and only article I have seen showing multiple options for a south African family involved a 44 ft boat heading for Madagascar if the family were driven to desperation. I don't see anything like enough alternative options even being discussed ?? tell me I am wrong my vriend
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You are exactly right, as part of the Suidlanders i do try to convey the same message to them as well, but a lot of them are extremely stubburn, macho and very gung ho, we took about 4 men and one lady for some firearms training(privately), first we do a briefing on all the principals, and purposes for each excersice, you could see that the men was bored out of their minds while we gave the briefing, they just wanted to get down to shooting their guns(thinking they can shoot and cant be tought something new), moving on to the range it was clear they didn`t listen to what was said except for the lady, and the stuff we did was basic, out of the whole group i would actualy only be comfortable with that lady in any conflict situation, the others might actually be more of a danger to you, because of their mindset, than their actions because actions can be changed through changing your mindset. The point you raised around boats is excellent and is something that we could exlore in depth i will raise this at our next meeting it ads a new dimention around things. I also believe that over confidence is a nail that sticks out, and circumstances will hammer it down, those that are over eager to engage their enemies are going to get into trouble, i think those that try to evade direct conflict (not because they are cowards) but probably very levelheaded poeple stand a much better chance, pick your fights carefully and you might just win the battle.

Thank you very much u have just added a new dimension to our plans and if all else fails it becomes a more viable option, it will def move up or down their priority lists as situations change.

I think one of the reasons why the Afrikaner poeple is so stubborn about leaving this land is their deep routed love for this country, for close on 400 years they have fought the natives, 2 wars with the brits, with the second we lost, the fight with the commies during the cold war era, it has been a constant battle and still is, our dads, granddads, and those before them have cried bitter tears and bled a lot of blood for this country, now to tell them to pack up an leave, and all those years hardship and strife was all for nothing, i think you could guess what the answer to that would be. Just something interesting, my uncle that departed recently traced back our family tree, we actually arrived on the African continent 3 or 4 years after Jan Van Riebeeck. I think if you speak to some of those expats they would probably come back here if the situantion was different. There is something about this place, once you`ve been here and fell in love with it, it will never leave you and you will never leave it, even if you are thousands of miles away from it.
 
What you said can actually be found in the Bible as well. Not shure of the chapter and verse: "For trust in no man."
 
seems like alot of Suidlanders have the same mindset as alot of Finns,too much blood spilled for their country,so leaving is a no no,fight? whatever comes let it come...as much as I hate to think,that I would have to leave,that's an option,but only after I know my family is safe.
underestimate your enemies is the worst and propably last mistake you do.
 
Finns or Afrikaans its no bloody use loving your family and country if you are full of AK47 rounds or holes from Assegais, Remember the Brits created the biggest empire the world has ever seen but with the smallest of armies, and part of that was because we learned from fighting Romans and Normans that no matter how much you love your land there are times you have to *** Off someplace safe and try again later! No more Isandiwanas, No more Viipuris we no longer have that luxury. We are being outnumbered globally so we simply can no longer afford to be gung ho suicidal.

Last time I checked South Africa had one helluva long coastline Islands off the coast of Inhassoro, places like Inhaca, Robben, Dasseneiland, Madagascar, Commoros etc all need Reccying. Findland is a million lakes nuff said

Jonnte " underestimate your enemies" by all means but do it from afar through Binos not when they are kicking in your front door.

It is just to easy for intelligent people who live on LARGE land masses like Africa, America and Europe to completely overlook or simply pay more than scant attention to the water around them and the Sky above them.

Trawlers, Yachts, Coastal vessels, Micro lights, Motorised Parachutes, Gyrocopters, Light Air craft, Inflatables, Canoes, Kayaks ALL must be given consideration.

Then you chaps have huge wildernesses like the deep forest and the Namib desert where the ........ erm........... opfor fear to tread.

Give ground not blood you can always take it back later, the Brits learned that bloody painfully of the Afrikaans
 
Soooooooo :) a Finnish or Afrikaans Trawlerman, cargo boatman etc, or Bush pilot who is known to the prepper community who gets a very modest donation to his fuel costs each month from the group , and assured clientele using his boat / plane / services during normal times can carry from 6 to 60 people to safety depending on craft in one go, OVER THE TOP OR AROUND the bad guys !!!

One gallon of fuel can push a 4x4 30 miles with a family of 4 in it, a trawler does the same with 60 people.

Joe SA said:
The point you raised around boats is excellent and is something that we could exlore in depth i will raise this at our next meeting it ads a new dimention around things. I also believe that over confidence is a nail that sticks out, and circumstances will hammer it down, those that are over eager to engage their enemies are going to get into trouble, i think those that try to evade direct conflict (not because they are cowards) but probably very levelheaded poeple stand a much better chance, pick your fights carefully and you might just win the battle.

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Its a battle between the heart, the mind and hope(faith) and at some place in time the three will allign to leave you with the perfect choice between all the options available to you.
 
This thread reminds me of a thread from another US forum a couple of years ago. They were discussing a huge great forest fire, it could have been in Washingtom State, and it revolved around a local TV crew interviewing this all American Family. The TV crew were asking the family about the homes in the area lost to the fire, and the risks to life from being trapped and killed by the fire. The footage then turned to this sad looking family of mum, dad and two teens standing outside their home with the house and vehicles behind them to the left. Dad then says " If the fire overtops the crest and comes this was we will all DIE because the roads will be closed by burning trees"

Behind the family to the right of the image was one huge great sodding LAKE !!! :)

Yup these urbanite commuters with a nice out of town home had not ever given using the water as an highway to safety even the slightest consideration !!!!

The Americans on the other forum where aghast and disgusted at this families stupidity !!

We must always explore ALL options, lake, river, sea, forest, desert, caves, air etc NOTHING must be set aside.
 
Joe SA said:
Its a battle between the heart, the mind and hope(faith) and at some place in time the three will allign to leave you with the perfect choice between all the options available to you.
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The objective of the exercise is to make the other guy die for his cause. If a herd of stampeding Elephants or Wildebeast come charging at you do you fire as fast as you can hoping to turn the stampede or do you get the **** out of the way?
 
I never underestimate my opfor,nor do I trust my neighbors,some of them would propably sell me for a bottle of vodka to the enemy,every single time I take my dog out I'll check if there is some changes around here,new building projects etc...I'd hate to leave but if I have to abandon this place,so be it...I truly respect the capabilities of that AK-round and don't wanna have additional holes in me in the size 7,62
 
I have just got back from my monthly "paper round"....delivering the local parish magazine, this gives me lots of time to see what is going on in the local area, who has built a new fence, who is having building work done, who has a new truck or a new trailer etc.etc.
 
Underestimation is a man's greatest downfall hence why I stock up on liquid nitrogen (sixty litres) and hydrogen (twenty litres) all of it goes towards plasma weaponry, before anything does hit the engineer uses his universities equipment. But there is no legal way to get your hands on kerosene. So we have to hold back on the thirteen kilo round.
 
I am not a troll we need kerosene to fire the 13 kilo shell at the necessary range or else we'd blow our selves to pieces there is nothing wrong with going over board. It more kerosene fuel in za that we can't get our hands on.
 
My "preciouuuuushh"
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Tell me about it!!! I must have been truly wicked in a previous life , I'm running out of people in the UK I can trust, lost two more contacts this week after they let me down. Sod it I work better on my own anyway :)

jontte said:
I never underestimate my opfor,nor do I trust my neighbors,some of them would propably sell me for a bottle of vodka to the enemy,every single time I take my dog out I'll check if there is some changes around here,new building projects etc...I'd hate to leave but if I have to abandon this place,so be it...I truly respect the capabilities of that AK-round and don't wanna have additional holes in me in the size 7,62
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Maybe i know a bit of what you are talking about. They are like soda pops when you open them up all bubbly and fresh, but after a while all flat and nothing nice.
 
Hey the only people a match for za in cricket are India and New Zealand in rugby it's just New Zealand and the Haka. We used to have the zulu war dance here but that is just humiliating.
 
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