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Good point.
The Fourth Turning applies to western civilization. Not much eastern.
Ben
Do "YOU" grasp the significance of "The fourth Turning"..??
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The Fourth Turning applies to western civilization. Not much eastern.
Ben
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I'm leaning toward #4
From your linked article.
"
mind.
- This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection and bad luck.
- The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rhythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.
- The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.
- Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.
Ben
my 4th true turning...post industrial society......loss of raw natural resources will drive it....starting with oil products.
It is troubling that China feels they "might" need One THOUSAND "ICBM" with Nuclear heads.
This "fourth turning" is just some author's prediction or vision of what is to come, right? That's what I understand it as. If this is all it really is, I'm not going to get worked up over it. Even if "all the signs" are pointing to this prophecy coming true. It's like all those people wearing wooden billboards preaching about the end of the world. Every last one of them has been wrong so far. Even though some of the signs they were touting were indeed present.
Eventually, one of these forecasts of doom will come true. But I don't think "now" is any more likely than the previous predictions that didn't come true. "Eventually" is most likely quite far in the future, beyond any of our lifespans.
I just watched the 2013 movie "Contagion" the other day. It was interesting how many things similar to the recent Covid days were in that movie. Before they even happened. But I don't consider that movie to be a "prophecy fulfilled" with a clairvoyant screenwriter who could predict the future. It's just a movie.
From what I understand of The Fourth Turning (and I admit, that isn't much), it's whole premise is "this has happened before, therefore it will happen again". There is obviously no proof of that prediction. You have to take it on faith. Other than parts of my religion, I rarely take anything on faith. I prefer a bit more solidity, evidence, proof, logic, etc. before I jump on the bandwagon. Anecdotes are not evidence in my mind. I think The Fourth Turning would make a better story for a book than something to base your life plans on. A book is what it started out as in the beginning, wasn't it?
I expect to be told that I am ignorant, have my head buried in the sand, normalcy biased, etc. So be it. But I simply don't see anything presently happening that signals the end of the world as we know it. We've got our problems for sure, but it's not time to break out that wooden sign and start preaching the end of the world quite yet, IMHO.
I like @Neb 's quote from the article above. The fourth turning could be anything between the end of man and a nothing burger it seems. With caveats like that, one can't hardly be wrong in their prediction can they? It's like a mathematician prophesying that when you add two numbers together, you're either going to end up with an even number, or an odd number. Well duh, not much of a prophesy there.
Eventually, one of these forecasts of doom will come true. But I don't think "now" is any more likely than the previous predictions that didn't come true. "Eventually" is most likely quite far in the future, beyond any of our lifespans.
I just watched the 2013 movie "Contagion" the other day. It was interesting how many things similar to the recent Covid days were in that movie. Before they even happened. But I don't consider that movie to be a "prophecy fulfilled" with a clairvoyant screenwriter who could predict the future. It's just a movie.
From what I understand of The Fourth Turning (and I admit, that isn't much), it's whole premise is "this has happened before, therefore it will happen again". There is obviously no proof of that prediction. You have to take it on faith. Other than parts of my religion, I rarely take anything on faith. I prefer a bit more solidity, evidence, proof, logic, etc. before I jump on the bandwagon. Anecdotes are not evidence in my mind. I think The Fourth Turning would make a better story for a book than something to base your life plans on. A book is what it started out as in the beginning, wasn't it?
I expect to be told that I am ignorant, have my head buried in the sand, normalcy biased, etc. So be it. But I simply don't see anything presently happening that signals the end of the world as we know it. We've got our problems for sure, but it's not time to break out that wooden sign and start preaching the end of the world quite yet, IMHO.
I like @Neb 's quote from the article above. The fourth turning could be anything between the end of man and a nothing burger it seems. With caveats like that, one can't hardly be wrong in their prediction can they? It's like a mathematician prophesying that when you add two numbers together, you're either going to end up with an even number, or an odd number. Well duh, not much of a prophesy there.
sleeping bag,supplies,water source and place to hide.
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About the first half of The Fourth Turning is not anything near a prophecy. It is a careful review of history dating back to The War of the Roses.
That review of history showed a repeated pattern were western society goes through changes over roughly 80 year periods, roughly the full age of a human. Neil and Howe broke cycles down into four seasons.
See Kondratiev wave for similar patterns.
The rest of the book looks how how the seasons map to generations i.e. baby boomer, genX.... and how the varied natures of the generations shape subsequent generations. Each generation shaping history by their character.
Scares little predictions are found in the written about 1990 but does suggest the past is a good predictor of the future.
In recent Youtube videos the surviving author could only venture a guess that "a complete distrust of all institutions" is to expected. I think he said that about 2 years ago.
This has had me asking myself...
What institutions are still trusted today ?
The significance is a Fourth Turning is a time of upheaval. Sometimes violent but not always.
So not a prediction but more suggestion that there may be rough times ahead of us.
Ben
Well I definitely agree with that. I "predict" it's going to get rougher before it gets smoother. But I also predict that it will get smoother again after that. These are only my personal predictions.
I said I don't know much about this "Fourth Turning", and it's apparent now that I was accurate when I said that. The way I've seen people talking about it, here on this forum even, I figured it was a warning about a "really soon ending of the world as we know it". That's how some people appear to be treating it - kind of like "get with the program stupid, or you're gonna die!" i.e., We're currently at the Gates of Hell, about to fall in. Which I don't agree with.
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It cyclical.
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxUMFznubR_Ssu3NDGZykrRfUnGuxF5Gr4?si=8oOxafd9S5lh25ZN
It is the 20 year or so period that is if concern.
Ben
Would you consider 65,000,000 (sixty five million) humans dead to be more or less a nothing event.
Some of this seems like ... back in the early 80's when we bought our house, the interest rate was 11.75% for our mortgage. People today would be screaming that a planetary die-off was in progress if that were to happen now. But we managed to live through it, refinance a couple of times over the years, and pay off the house early.
Huh? I'll flip it once for a light sear on the other side and slide it over and cover for the indirect cookin and let that blue smoke do its job- otherwise your beautiful meat has a nasty grey frame around the cross section.
Cross hatched grill lines are overrated visual nonsense for closet gays
