How do you tell the difference between making use of what you have, and confirmation bias?

[Aerindel]

I see this all the time:


People who live in cities think its better to be in a group.

People with short range rifles don't think long range rifles will be needed....people with long range rifles think they are the best way to win a fight.

People don't have a BIL, think no house is defensible. People with a BIL, think all the BOL people are going to die on the road.

People in open land think that will protect them, people in the woods think the concealment will protect them...

People without a 4wd vehicle think 2WD is better, people with 4WD think 2WD is useless....

I see it everyday, and am 'guilty' of it myself.

The question is, how do you tell the difference between making smart use of the situation you are in, with letting the situation you are in, determine your views on the situation you SHOULD be in?

Is it even possible? or desirable? Are we all just victims of circumstance or past decisions?

 

[Hardcalibres]

There is a saying in Africa that translates from Swahili to:

The more I see, the more I know.

The more I know, the better I see.

Confirmation bias seems to flourish when people are filling in the (bigger) gaps between their experiences.......with their imaginations......

What they can imagine is often restricted by Normalcy Bias and wishful thinking.

 

[LadyLocust]

As I was reading your post, I thought narrow minded or open minded.
Have you used both a BIL and a BOL so you can make an educated decision?
Have you used a short range and a long range r!fle then making a decision based on experience?
If you’ve no experience with an alternate item or plan, then you can’t make an unbiased decision. In that situation the decision is really to go with what you know or take a chance with an unknown. That can happen on varying levels almost daily in life. Then you are sorta right there with the saying in Hardcaliber’s post.

 

[montanabill]

Your location, skills, and assets bear heavily on what you see as your reality..
I study history and first person accounts of their own actions and reactions to bad situations to help me understand my own situation..
What went on in Bosnia...
What is going on in south africa....
What is going on in parts of Mexico....

I think the clock is running out on deciding to change your whole situation and certainly time is running out on trying to convince someone else to modify their situation,
Time to play the hand you are delt..

 

[Sourdough]

It is the "TRANSITION" that kills.



"FULLY" comprehending that is a "HUGE" key to your survival.

Even better if you "LIVE" it.

 

[Haertig]

People with short range rifles don't think long range rifles will be needed....people with long range rifles think they are the best way to win a fight. ...

I don't think this is "confirmation bias". Very few people just stumble through a gun store and buy the first rifle they knock over. They buy the rifle they do because they had some reason to choose that rifle.

It is not unusual, and is not "confirmation bias", to believe that the rifle you just bought was your best choice. After all, you specifically chose that rifle for the job you needed it for, while taking in account your personal situation.

All the other examples presented in the opening post are similar. OF COURSE someone who chose item #1 over item #2 is going to believe that item #1 is better for their need. That's why they chose it in the first place.

The only people who would denigrate this completely normal thought process by calling it "confirmation bias" are the ones that want to believe they are better at choosing what you need than you are.

People may make a choice and then find out later that it was the wrong choice. That happens all the time. Hopefully they learn from the mistake - a mistake that EVERYONE makes many times in their life. But this is not "confirmation bias". "Confirmation bias" is the term that prima-donnas use to put down choices made by plebes. When I see someone use it in a derogatory way, I pretty much ignore anything more they say. FWIW, I do not think it was used in a derogatory way in the opening post of this thread. That was a thought provoking post. But I would still rather see the stupid term go the way of the dodo bird. 95% of the time it is used by self-styled experts to put others down.

 

[Haertig]

Have you used a short range and a long range r!fle then making a decision based on experience?
If you’ve no experience with an alternate item or plan, then you can’t make an unbiased decision.

I'm thinking if you know the area around where you live is limited to 50 to 100 yards of sight, you can safely choose a short range rifle without having any experience with a long range rifle. That's not a biased decision, that's common sense.

 

[Hardcalibres]

I don't think this is "confirmation bias". Very few people just stumble through a gun store and buy the first rifle they knock over. They buy the rifle they do because they had some reason to choose that rifle.

It is not unusual, and is not "confirmation bias", to believe that the rifle you just bought was your best choice. After all, you specifically chose that rifle for the job you needed it for, while taking in account your personal situation.

All the other examples presented in the opening post are similar. OF COURSE someone who chose item #1 over item #2 is going to believe that item #1 is better for their need. That's why they chose it in the first place.

The only people who would denigrate this completely normal thought process by calling it "confirmation bias" are the ones that want to believe they are better at choosing what you need than you are.

People may make a choice and then find out later that it was the wrong choice. That happens all the time. Hopefully they learn from the mistake - a mistake that EVERYONE makes many times in their life. But this is not "confirmation bias". "Confirmation bias" is the term that prima-donnas use to put down choices made by plebes. When I see someone use it in a derogatory way, I pretty much ignore anything more they say. FWIW, I do not think it was used in a derogatory way in the opening post of this thread. That was a thought provoking post. But I would still rather see the stupid term go the way of the dodo bird. 95% of the time it is used by self-styled experts to put others down.

So would you say that using the term confirmation bias (which is an impersonal pronoun) is more insulting than calling people doomsayers (which is personal) .........or prima-donnas.....or self-styled experts?

The latter are all terms you have used in your posts in the last 24 hours.

.....pot.....meet kettle.

 

[Canon29]

Confirmation bias is when you only consider information that confirms what you already think. You can tell immediately when people unreasonably defend positions that have serious flaws in their premises and won't even discuss the potential for flaws or rather are trying to confirm their own beliefs by defeating other's without considering them. That's not to say that everyone has to have the same belief, they just need to recognize why their beliefs are different and how those differences are accounted for in strengths and weaknesses. All beliefs/plans have both.

I.e. short range rifles suffer in the long range game, rifles optimized for long range suffer in the short range game- Or, trees can conceal you but also your enemies, open land will help you to notice your enemies, but also reveals yourself. Such ought to effect rifle choice etc. When you see inconsistency between the context and the plan and someone vehemently defending that flawed premise you know somethings up.

When someone says "anyone who does this" is dead and they speak in absolutes without disclaimer to the specifics of the context you almost immediately know it's someone trying to justify a lack of capability or are just jockeying for clout or something.

Basically when people exclude the success or viability of another without considering or even asking for that persons context it's a big tell that it's confirmation bias rather than appropriate use and thus enhancement of what they have chosen.

To give an example. I'm a bug out guy- in the woods with (at first) a close range rifle. It makes sense for me given how I choose to live, what I've been convinced to believe, and how I've invested and enhanced my preparedness towards those goals. Those contexts drive that position.

What I DONT do is prescribe my methods to others and/or portray it as the only viable method, discredit the very real potential issues/challenges with my choices, or neglect to mention the context which drives my decisions and superimpose that context on others.

What I DO is try to help others by making connections between methods and offering/taking advice, take other peoples beliefs very seriously and consider them soberly, and do my part to make sure context is applied appropriately so we have some baseline as to why an issue is or isn't actually an issue for that person/group individually.

Can I tell you why I think my plans are good? Yup. But I can also tell you the problems with them and my limitations.

thus, the biggest indication for confirmation bias and thus not just making best use of their circumstances is when someone neglects to admit real risk/fallibility and instead attacks the opposing idea or moves to discredit the things that highlight their risk.

 

[OldSchool]

"objectivity" could be a good catch phrase for this thread. I mean if a person can look at alternative ways of doing things, being opposed to steadfast rules of the person.... a learning experience might happen, and maybe a person could refine their ways.

 

[OldSchool]

Confirmation bias is when you only consider information that confirms what you already think. You can tell immediately when people unreasonably defend positions that have serious flaws in their premises and won't even discuss the potential for flaws or rather are trying to confirm their own beliefs by defeating others without considering them. That's not to say that everyone has to have the same belief, they just need to recognize why their beliefs are different and how those differences are accounted for in strengths and weaknesses. All beliefs/plans have both.

I.e. short range rifles suffer in the long range game, rifles optimized for long range suffer in the short range game- Or, trees can conceal you but also your enemies, open land will help you to notice your enemies, but also yourself. Such ought to effect rifle choice etc. When you see inconsistency between the context and the plan and someone vehemently defending that flawed premise you know somethings up.

When someone says "anyone who does this" is dead and they speak in absolutes without disclaimer to the specifics of the context you almost immediately know it's someone trying to justify a lack of capability or are just jockeying for clout or something.

Basically when people exclude the success or viability of another without considering or even asking for that persons context it's a big tell that it's confirmation bias rather than appropriate use and thus enhancement of what they have chosen.

To give an example. I'm a bug out guy- in the woods with (at first) a close range rifle. It makes sense for me given how I choose to live, what I've been convinced to believe, and how I've invested and enhanced my preparedness towards those goals. Those contexts drive that position.

What I DONT do is prescribe my methods to others and/or portray it as the only viable method, discredit the very real potential issues/challenges with my choices, or neglect to mention the context which drives my decisions and superimpose that context on others.

What I DO is try to help others by making connections between methods and offering/taking advice, take other peoples beliefs very seriously and consider them soberly, and do my part to make sure context is applied appropriately so we have some baseline as to why an issue is or isn't actually an issue for that person/group individually.

Can I tell you why I think my plans are good? Yup. But I can also tell you the problems with them and my limitations.

thus, the biggest indication for confirmation bias and thus not just making best use of their circumstances is when someone neglects to admit real risk/fallibility and instead attacks the opposing idea or moves to discredit the things that highlight their risk.

At this early morning hour.... your post should have stood, for the enlightenment of others. I didn't mean to step on you..... it's just the way it happened.

 

[Canon29]

At this early morning hour.... your post should have stood, for the enlightenment of others. I didn't mean to step on you..... it's just the way it happened.

No apology needed whatsoever, it all comes with the territory of this format. I appreciate the compliment and also your post.

 

[Haertig]

The latter are all terms you have used in your posts in the last 24 hours.

More like the last 24 minutes actually.

But touché on your point!

 

[Hardcalibres]

More like the last 24 minutes actually.

I had to cast the net that wide to include your use of the term doomsayers......and yes the others were much more recent.

 

[Hardcalibres]

I'm thinking if you know the area around where you live is limited to 50 to 100 yards of sight, you can safely choose a short range rifle without having any experience with a long range rifle. That's not a biased decision, that's common sense.

The exception I often see is that......even in the areas that you cant see more than 100 yards through the woods, there are other scenarios where you might have to shoot further than that in the abnormal conditions of a very severe crisis.

For example (and hypothetically), think of this:

1. The rule of law has failed.....and it wont be coming back
2. Raiders attack your community and some good folks are killed.....including women and children
3. Your community bands together and votes to put in roadblocks to keep raiders out
4. A roster of personnel is drawn up to man the roadblocks....and it is preferred that you all bring your own rifle (that you are familiar with)
5. To maximise tactical advantage, the road blocks are each placed up at the high end of a long straight....say 500 yards long
6. Raiders ignore warnings and try to bust through your roadblock and are repelled
7. Next they pull back to the other end of the 500 yards straight and start firing upon the roadblock
8. What good is your 100 yard rifle now?
9. If they pick you all off from the roadblock, they will get in and your community will be killed

Now I am guessing that you will read the above scenario and say "That is never going to happen".....but you should understand that has happened to many people around the world, it is happening to many people around the world and (while unlikely) there is no fundamental reason that cant happen where you live.

Many in the prepping world would rather be prepared for such a very severe crisis.

 

[OldSchool]

Somewhere here, in another recent thread apparently..... it was said in the OP that it's time to take the hand we've been dealt and roll with it. Paraphrasing and as memory servers. But: That doesn't mean our ways can't be refined.

Refining my ways and learning.... does life get any better?

 

[sonya123]

people just want to be right about what they believe already at all cost. They do not want to use logic or science, or change their mind about anything, they want to be RIGHT. That is THE most important thing to most people I get the feeling. Few people will change their minds about anything.
Some people of course do change their minds, but an overwhelming majority of people does not want to because to do that, first of all they would have to admit they had been wrong ( this goes for politics, religion, and stuff like what you list)
And then there are those people that know exactly what is wrong , but they don't want to change, because it takes more effort than they want to make

as for survivalism, I KNOW what our problems are where we live now. Well aware of it, but we are not going to do anything about it, even if somehow we could. We do not have a small army to defend what we have. We do not have any security at all. We don't even have locks on the doors. Doesn't matter what rifles we have, we don't have an army to shoot them. And we have nothing to defend against some done dropping a bomb on us

 

[Magus]

I see this all the time:


People who live in cities think its better to be in a group.

People with short range rifles don't think long range rifles will be needed....people with long range rifles think they are the best way to win a fight.

People don't have a BIL, think no house is defensible. People with a BIL, think all the BOL people are going to die on the road.

People in open land think that will protect them, people in the woods think the concealment will protect them...

People without a 4wd vehicle think 2WD is better, people with 4WD think 2WD is useless....

I see it everyday, and am 'guilty' of it myself.

The question is, how do you tell the difference between making smart use of the situation you are in, with letting the situation you are in, determine your views on the situation you SHOULD be in?

Is it even possible? or desirable? Are we all just victims of circumstance or past decisions?

It's all situational. I bug in because I can't leave my elders, not that I'm much good to them at this point. I did my Grizzly Addams bit, yee haw. Also, people need to realize that not every wrench fits every nut, that's why I preach about 4-gun kits, and that friends is a minimum, the ideal is about 6!
Battle rifle.
Hunting rifle.
Shotgun.
Pistol.
22 Pistol.
22 Rifle.
But BOT, it's all in the perception of the situation, and situations and perceptions change. 20 years ago I'd have been right at home playing Rambo Lite in the woods, Now I would expect to be raccoon and possum chow within three months because my health has turned to crap. Probably less. I prep because it's what I know, it comes naturally. you grow a garden in the spring, you can it in the fall, and you eat it with deer and squirrel and on occasion a rabbit when the smokehouse starts to echo in the winter. People who will make it are aware of their situations and prepare, and situations are like opinions, they are all different. The key is, you react to change when you see it coming, not after it gets there!

 

[Spikedriver]

"The more you know, the less you need"...

This is probably an unpopular opinion, but I think most people are more worried about the combat aspects of survival and not concerned enough about the knowledge. If you don't know what needs to be done and how to do it, a short or long range rifle makes no difference. A years worth of stored food makes little difference. Those things are great and useful, but what if you're caught away from the things you've prepped? Can you really build a shelter with minimal tools? Do you know what you can eat and what you can't? How many ways can you process fresh water with the materials available to you? I'm never going to have to live that way in the long term, but how resourceful could I be if I was stuck in a blizzard, out of gas, on a deserted country road? What about lost in the North Woods in the fall?

I'm not into going out and building a camp out of some vines and a fallen tree, but the principles of doing something like that apply to all of life. What can you do with what you've got? I mean, all the canned food in the world does you not good if you can't open it without an electric can opener, and the best rifle isn't much good if you can't shoot well. @OldSchool said, "Refining my ways and learning". That's the most important thing, and every one of us is here today because our ancestors did that thousands of years ago...

 

[montanabill]

Tactics are cool and sexy......logistics win the war....

In years past before these cool internet forums I came to the realization while teaching very simple outdoor survival classes that a major hurdle is peoples belief that "to change is to die"
My interpretation of that is over the last 50,000 years where some cultures were hunter gatherers any change in the routine or food gathering could spell disaster. Eat this plant not that plant....go here in the spring and harvest certain plants and roots. When the stars align a certain way be ready for the changing of the seasons...
It is hard wired into brains thru fear to behave a certain way, now marketing has tapped into that fear to sell products and ideas....

Unfortunately I think a lot of what some people consider normal or necessary is about to be processed by this wonderful invention....

Notice the clear plastic tube on top of the overflow? That lets this miserable low volume toilet fill enough to make a decent flush.

 

[Dave2001]

I don't think this is "confirmation bias". Very few people just stumble through a gun store and buy the first rifle they knock over. They buy the rifle they do because they had some reason to choose that rifle.

It is not unusual, and is not "confirmation bias", to believe that the rifle you just bought was your best choice. After all, you specifically chose that rifle for the job you needed it for, while taking in account your personal situation.

All the other examples presented in the opening post are similar. OF COURSE someone who chose item #1 over item #2 is going to believe that item #1 is better for their need. That's why they chose it in the first place.

The only people who would denigrate this completely normal thought process by calling it "confirmation bias" are the ones that want to believe they are better at choosing what you need than you are.

People may make a choice and then find out later that it was the wrong choice. That happens all the time. Hopefully they learn from the mistake - a mistake that EVERYONE makes many times in their life. But this is not "confirmation bias". "Confirmation bias" is the term that prima-donnas use to put down choices made by plebes. When I see someone use it in a derogatory way, I pretty much ignore anything more they say. FWIW, I do not think it was used in a derogatory way in the opening post of this thread. That was a thought provoking post. But I would still rather see the stupid term go the way of the dodo bird. 95% of the time it is used by self-styled experts to put others down.

I have been shooting since i was 12 years old, I participate in many shooting competitions in rifle, pistol, skeet and trap, also in law enforcement competitions, The gun you pick is for its specific use, you have to be multifaced

 

[Haertig]

Generally, a rifle chosen and equipped for long range is going to work just fine at short range. A cartridge that will stay supersonic past 1000 yards, good terminal ballistics, a high end scope with good glass, etc. Probably overkill in many areas, but perfectly functional at 100 yards. Say a .308 target rifle with a Vortex Razor HD scope.

On the other hand, a rifle bought for use at short range is probably going to be lacking at long range. A cartridge with poor ballistics - both in flight and terminal - open sights, etc. Say an AK47 shooting its cartridge with a trajectory like a mortar. The bullet might make it 1000 yards, but it would cover a distance of 3000 yards if you include the arc it would travel. Entrance wound at the shoulder, exit wound at the ankle (not that it would penetrate more than a few centimeters at that distance).

 

[Magus]

308 is the new 30-06.

 

[Hardcalibres]

"The more you know, the less you need"...

This is probably an unpopular opinion, but I think most people are more worried about the combat aspects of survival and not concerned enough about the knowledge. If you don't know what needs to be done and how to do it, a short or long range rifle makes no difference. A years worth of stored food makes little difference. Those things are great and useful, but what if you're caught away from the things you've prepped? Can you really build a shelter with minimal tools? Do you know what you can eat and what you can't? How many ways can you process fresh water with the materials available to you? I'm never going to have to live that way in the long term, but how resourceful could I be if I was stuck in a blizzard, out of gas, on a deserted country road? What about lost in the North Woods in the fall?

I'm not into going out and building a camp out of some vines and a fallen tree, but the principles of doing something like that apply to all of life. What can you do with what you've got? I mean, all the canned food in the world does you not good if you can't open it without an electric can opener, and the best rifle isn't much good if you can't shoot well. @OldSchool said, "Refining my ways and learning". That's the most important thing, and every one of us is here today because our ancestors did that thousands of years ago...

Ten years ago this "skills vs gear" debate was raging on these forums......but much less so now.

That is mostly because of TV shows like "Alone".

While the producers of Alone make sure they have a mix of less and more skilled people for the show (to ensure it is entertaining), the contestants that last to near the end of each series have very good skills.

But despite those skills (and also having about the best gear set you can haul on foot/in a backpack), by the end of 100 days or less, each series has ended when there was just one contestant remaining.

Every winner (and indeed near runner up) has been severely emaciated and in very poor physical condition when they ended the competition.....most lose 60-90 pounds during the series! Many have permanent physical damage (and this will probably end that type of series/competition sooner or later).

So the show indicates that even very skilled people can only last a few months out in the sticks, living off the land in a shelter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alone_(TV_series)

The real answer to which is better....skills or gear.....is.......both.

Should I prepare to Bug in or Bug out?.........both

Should I prepare stored food or grow food?.......both

Should I be prepared to work with neighbors or go it alone?.......both

Should I prep with supplies that I need or with trade goods?........both

In fact the answer to virtually all either/or questions in survivalism is both........or if you want people to choose from a longer list, then the answer is all of the above.

That is because we cannot predict what the crisis will be......and some types of crises require you to have mostly skills.....while other crises require you to have mostly gear/supplies.

The more severe the crisis is and the longer it lasts, the more likely it is that you will need both skills and gear/supplies.

......and to finish.......can someone live out in the sticks for more than a few months.......yes they can.......but they will need more than just a backpack full of tools........they will need hundreds or even thousands of pounds of tools, gear and supplies......and they will need what they would use to establish some sort of sustainable agriculture system. So they would need to be more setup like the homesteaders of old with a covered wagon and livestock.

.......and even they, really did need the occasional visit to a trading post or town.

 

[Aerindel]

I don't think this is "confirmation bias". Very few people just stumble through a gun store and buy the first rifle they knock over. They buy the rifle they do because they had some reason to choose that rifle.

It is not unusual, and is not "confirmation bias", to believe that the rifle you just bought was your best choice. After all, you specifically chose that rifle for the job you needed it for, while taking in account your personal situation.

All the other examples presented in the opening post are similar. OF COURSE someone who chose item #1 over item #2 is going to believe that item #1 is better for their need. That's why they chose it in the first place.

The only people who would denigrate this completely normal thought process by calling it "confirmation bias" are the ones that want to believe they are better at choosing what you need than you are.

People may make a choice and then find out later that it was the wrong choice. That happens all the time. Hopefully they learn from the mistake - a mistake that EVERYONE makes many times in their life. But this is not "confirmation bias". "Confirmation bias" is the term that prima-donnas use to put down choices made by plebes. When I see someone use it in a derogatory way, I pretty much ignore anything more they say. FWIW, I do not think it was used in a derogatory way in the opening post of this thread. That was a thought provoking post. But I would still rather see the stupid term go the way of the dodo bird. 95% of the time it is used by self-styled experts to put others down.

Hmm, this whole post sounds like confirmation bias incarnate, while not actually understanding confirmation bias.

But your argument is at about a 45º angle to mine.

"People may make a choice and then find out later that it was the wrong choice."

Confirmation bias is when they make that choice.....and refuse to ever think it was the wrong choice, on account of it being the choice they made, in spite of evidence that its objectively the wrong choice.

That is just confirmation bias, and is basic human nature, but what I'm talking about is different.

The problem is....how do you tell the difference between thinking your choices are the right choices just because you made them....and just making the best of the situation you are in, because of your choices.

You only have a 2wd vehicle, so you never go up roads that it can't make.

You live in the dense forest, so you base your defenses on being hard to find, rather than having good visibility.

You live in a city so you make extensive bug out plans to leave the city.

You go walking in the rain so you bring an umbrella....

Get the idea?

These hypothetical people....don't suffer, or don't suffer much from their bad choices.....because they have mitigated them with other choices that are CORRECT, for the given bad situation. Now, given the lack of suffering, and the natural effect of confirmation bias....this person could go on for a long time, maybe a lifetime, happily being wrong......until they smash into the reality of SHTF. This might actually be most people.

Or to simplify it even more...you go through life always thinking 2+2=5......but you have also learned to always subtract 1 from every time you try and add 2+2.

Actually, this kind of thing happens to students in bad schools all the time....many people find ways to work around never learning, or miss learning a subject, by instead learning how to pass (or avoid) the tests anyway.....until eventually they get to the next subject and realize they are missing the foundation they need to advance and really would have to go all the back to the basics and start again. There is actually a hilarious article I read once about examples of things that people went a long time through life, believing, before they found it they where wrong. Someone in their 20s who thought unicorns where a real animal that lived in Africa, or someone who only every ate baked chicken and didn't realize other food existed until college, because as a kid, it was all they wanted to eat, so their parents just kept only cooking it.


One of my persistent fears, is that my life is just making the best of bad choices, rather than seeing those choices for what they were.....bad choices.....and making new ones.