How will you assess "The Balloon just went up"....??

[Supervisor42]

Here is the graph for the whole world from the World Bank Group

View attachment 174053

Looks pretty much the same.........

So, either US presidents can create inflation for every nation on Earth or the US economy is actually just along for the ride.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?end=2023&start=2010

Believe it or not, most country's currencies are tied to the value of the US dollar.
When ours goes down, so does theirs.

 

[Haertig]

People keep indicating that I've fallen off a bridge. But when I look down, I see my two feet firmly planted on solid ground.

That's why I said:

I don't mean reading on the internet that I won't be able to afford food, I mean actually not being able to afford food.

I guess "falling off a bridge" equates to reading predictions of doom on the internet. I have indeed read some of those predictions.

I don't doubt that some people's balloons have already gone up. That's human nature. But in general, I don't think society as a whole are running for their shelters and caches just yet. Nor do I see much that makes me think they should be. I'm seeing waves pushing us around a little, not tsunamis. Others may be seeing those tsunamis. I'm not going to knock them for running away. That's exactly what I'd do if I saw a tsunami. But I don't. Hence my comments on "how I would assess the balloon just went up", the topic of this thread.

 

[Tootsie]

This won’t affect most people here. Banks this week, at least in NY, have removed caps on overdrafts. Fees that were $35 were painful enough but now places are charging 7x more. Not double. Not triple. Seven times more.
I have never had an overdraft, but sadly it’s common for some around here. Groceries, utilities, everything. I can see financial problems really escalating.
The balloon is gonna pop, and one thing is going to aggravate another. People are beyond divided. I can see striking out and unpredictable behavior coming.

 

[Magus]

People keep indicating that I've fallen off a bridge. But when I look down, I see my two feet firmly planted on solid ground.

That's why I said:


I guess "falling off a bridge" equates to reading predictions of doom on the internet. I have indeed read some of those predictions.

I don't doubt that some people's balloons have already gone up. That's human nature. But in general, I don't think society as a whole are running for their shelters and caches just yet. Nor do I see much that makes me think they should be. I'm seeing waves pushing us around a little, not tsunamis. Others may be seeing those tsunamis. I'm not going to knock them for running away. That's exactly what I'd do if I saw a tsunami. But I don't. Hence my comments on "how I would assess the balloon just went up", the topic of this thread.

So I guess you're saying not affording food is immaterial if there is no food?

 

[jazzy]

i think so many things.economies.nations are so unstable right now and getting worse. i think it will start like dominoes falling. one market here, another one there, banks, nations markets, excalating violence --- it will pick up speed and cant be stopped and will be global. the key is identifying the trigger event. just keep watching all the growing storms and do your best to get as ready as possible,.

i dont believe there is anything that can stop the collapse

 

[Haertig]

So I guess you're saying not affording food is immaterial if there is no food?

Of course. That's obvious. If something is not available then indeed, your inability to pay for it is immaterial. But I do not understand how that concept relates to "falling off a bridge".

Everything I want is available. Everything I want I can afford. Some are predicting that what I want will not be available and/or that I will not be able to afford it. That is not the reality that I see currently. It is only their prediction. A prediction that I see no reason to accept at present.

I think saying that all of us are "falling off of a bridge" is a mischaracterization. I think the reality is that some of us are just jumping off of it. But I have no problem with that. The jumpers think I'm foolish, and I think the jumpers are foolish. That is not malicious, that is just the natural result of differing predictions. We are interpreting data laid in front of us in different ways. That's 100% normal, and acceptable.

 

[Magus]

You mentioned bridges first bro, we just ran with it. LOL

 

[Haertig]

You mentioned bridges first bro, we just ran with it. LOL

Go to the "Find" option in your browser. Not the "Search" that is part of this website - the "Find" that is part of your browser for searching raw text in a web page. Starting at page one of this thread, and moving to subsequent pages as needed based on you personal config of posts per page to display, look for the occurrence of the word "bridge". Who is it that first brought it up again?

 

[Aerindel]

When 911 dispatch, my 'boss' goes down.

Which is different than when they just don't have enough resources, that happens all the time.

I'm saying when nobody can call 911 on the radio, because the dispatch center is unstaffed, or non functional.

 

[lonewolf]

Everything I want is available. Everything I want I can afford. Some are predicting that what I want will not be available and/or that I will not be able to afford it. That is not the reality that I see currently. It is only their prediction. A prediction that I see no reason to accept at present.

that sounds very much like the masses over here who prepare for nothing and panic when the shelves are empty or the power goes off.

 

[Haertig]

that sounds very much like the masses over here who prepare for nothing and panic when the shelves are empty or the power goes off.

So your position is that people cannot be prepped if they do not agree with your prediction of imminent doom?

(1) Some people go into emergency prep mode after falling down the rabbit hole of doom predictions. (2) Some people prep to super high levels, then start predicting doom themselves to justify their actions. (3) Others prep, but do not see immediate doom on their doorstep. (4) Still others don't prep at all, don't see doom ever coming, and will be in for a surprise if it happens.

There are other variations, but these are the main groups that I see.

The people in group (1) pretty much stay to themselves, but do tend to express their panic publicly at times. The people in group (2) think that the only alternative to their group is either group (4) or group (1), they don't seem to conceive the possibility of a group (3) even existing.

I guess you are trying to place me in group (4). But you're wrong. I'm in group (3).

 

[sonya123]

So your position is that people cannot be prepped if they do not agree with your prediction of imminent doom?

(1) Some people go into emergency prep mode after falling down the rabbit hole of doom predictions. (2) Some people prep to super high levels, then start predicting doom themselves to justify their actions. (3) Others prep, but do not see immediate doom on their doorstep. (4) Still others don't prep at all, don't see doom ever coming, and will be in for a surprise if it happens.

There are other variations, but these are the main groups that I see.

The people in group (1) pretty much stay to themselves, but do tend to express their panic publicly at times. The people in group (2) think that the only alternative to their group is either group (4) or group (1), they don't seem to conceive the possibility of a group (3) even existing.

I guess you are trying to place me in group (4). But you're wrong. I'm in group (3).

that makes a lot of sense, I think I am in group 3 also. Nothing immediate is happening, but we are prepared. But I am not going to hide myself away in a bunker waiting for the nukes to drop or something
We are still living a lifestyle as if the country is going to keep going the way it is, but we have the possibilities to be ok even if SHTF happens tomorrow
You have to continue living your life

 

[Magus]

Go to the "Find" option in your browser. Not the "Search" that is part of this website - the "Find" that is part of your browser for searching raw text in a web page. Starting at page one of this thread, and moving to subsequent pages as needed based on you personal config of posts per page to display, look for the occurrence of the word "bridge". Who is it that first brought it up again?

OK, my interpretation of your scenario.
But you're still suspended between then and now, so when do you worry? I step out of the road when I hear a car coming long before I see it.

 

[Haertig]

But you're still suspended between then and now, so when do you worry? I step out of the road when I hear a car coming long before I see it.

Do you step out of the road when someone tells you a car is coming, but when you look and listen you cannot detect that one is there? Probably not. You may prepare to step out of the road, but not actually do that yet. Similarly, if you hear a car coming, stop and look everywhere but do not see one, do you still step out of the road? If this happens to me, I continue crossing as normal, writing off what I heard as my imagination falsely interpreting incoming data.

That's where I am in your scenario. But I can imagine other people avoiding road crossings now and in the future because of what they thought they heard, even though their other senses disprove their initial conclusion (or sometimes they might not even use their other senses). I believe that's called paranoia, or related to it.

Remember, what you see is not necessarily what other people see (or "hear", as in your analogy). Other people may not react the same way you do because they do not see coming what you see coming. Nobody is the recognized "speaker of the truth" no matter what they think of themselves and their predictions. People are always going to take what they see for themselves as more reliable than what somebody else tells them they should be seeing, except maybe for the really weak minds that exist in cults and such.

 

[Supervisor42]

My problem is the constant drone from the 'doomsayers' that have wailed for years that 'the end has begun, right now!' .
They never get called out on the carpet for being wrong, time and time again.
What was that book called, Chicken Little?

The sky is falling!!!

 

[Snowman]

Make Your Own Balloon :



Fill it with Nice Things then...

 

[Magus]

Do you step out of the road when someone tells you a car is coming, but when you look and listen you cannot detect that one is there? Probably not. You may prepare to step out of the road, but not actually do that yet. Similarly, if you hear a car coming, stop and look everywhere but do not see one, do you still step out of the road? If this happens to me, I continue crossing as normal, writing off what I heard as my imagination falsely interpreting incoming data.

That's where I am in your scenario. But I can imagine other people avoiding road crossings now and in the future because of what they thought they heard, even though their other senses disprove their initial conclusion (or sometimes they might not even use their other senses). I believe that's called paranoia, or related to it.

Remember, what you see is not necessarily what other people see (or "hear", as in your analogy). Other people may not react the same way you do because they do not see coming what you see coming. Nobody is the recognized "speaker of the truth" no matter what they think of themselves and their predictions. People are always going to take what they see for themselves as more reliable than what somebody else tells them they should be seeing, except maybe for the really weak minds that exist in cults and such.

Fine, ok. let's not OT too much genius.

 

[Neb]

My problem is the constant drone from the 'doomsayers' that have wailed for years that 'the end has begun, right now!' .
They never get called out on the carpet for being wrong, time and time again.
What was that book called, Chicken Little?

The sky is falling!!!View attachment 174123

My money guy says...
"Experts have predicted 23 of the last 8 recessions."

Ben

 

[Sourdough]

Any member here who would consider me (Sourdough) a "doomer" or as someone who believes the end of the world is near.....???

(Note: it is totally OK with me if you do.)

Just CURIOUS...

My problem is the constant drone from the 'doomsayers' that have wailed for years that 'the end has begun, right now!'

 

[Haertig]

Any member here who would consider me (Sourdough) a "doomer" or as someone who believes the end of the world is near.....???

I would not say you are a "doomer". IMHO, you do have a significantly negative prediction of the future however. I would say that you imply - mostly without saying directly - that bad times are upon us and that they will get much worse than we can imagine. This is a step back from a full doom prediction. So you don't quite qualify as a doomer in my book. But I do not think you are optimistic.

I see myself as being somewhat the opposite of you in outlook. I see bumps in the road now, and plenty more ahead, but the overall trend is that things are on the road to better. I am optimistic for the future. More so now than I was a few years ago. While I don't consider myself "normalcy bias", I do consider myself one step back from normalcy bias.

I actually see you and I as both in a good place. Not quite extreme, but maybe pushing the limits when viewed from the opposite side. Our outlooks are opposite of each other. Which is the root of the reason we bump heads so often. The other half of the reason is that we are both pretty stuck in our ways, confident in ourselves, and not exactly shining examples of being open to opposing viewpoints.

So you're a near-doomer, and I'm a near-normalcy-bias. That's my take on the matter, and it's just my opinion.

 

[Aerindel]

Any member here who would consider me (Sourdough) a "doomer" or as someone who believes the end of the world is near.....???

I believe it's IN PROGRESS.

 

[Amish Heart]

Doomer In Progress is a bad acronym. DIP
Ha
Gotta think of another

 

[Tirediron]

Any member here who would consider me (Sourdough) a "doomer" or as someone who believes the end of the world is near.....???

(Note: it is totally OK with me if you do.)

Just CURIOUS...

No, i consider you someone who has always been able to go it alone, ie be self sufficient, with no supplies, as we age that side of things kind of starts to disapear.
I fix and build stuff for a living, when things are edgy, people put of things that they would normaly consider "just maintainance" the prices of a lot of parts and maintainance items has doubled over the last 4 years, but if someone is outside the industry , they might not be aware of that.
Don't know if that is the kind of answer you had in mind, but it's the one I gave "boots on the ground", not shoes in an office.

 

[Haertig]

Doomer In Progress is a bad acronym. DIP

I thought the same thing initially!

But I'm hoping @Aerindel was referring to the end of the world being "in progress", and not @Sourdough being a "doomer in progress".

(not that I want the end of the world to be in progress)

 

[sonya123]

you know the most likely SHTF most of us will experience relatively soon will be death. Almost all of us on here are old . You are more likely to just drop dead from heart attack, or a cancer gets you at this point than some SHTF scenario