The DOW briefly punched thru the 40K barrier today.
...No recession for me
.
It is just getting further and further away.
Cut n paste from Paradigm Press news letter.
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Some market crystal gazers believe the gap between the 3-month Treasury bill and the 10-year Treasury note puts out a greater recessionary signal.
The 3-month Treasury bill currently yields 5.45%. Again, the 10-year Treasury note yields. 4.37%.
Here — again — the yield curve inverts.
The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped beneath the 3-month Treasury yield on six occasions spanning over 50 years.
Recession was the invariable consequence — a perfect 1.000 batter’s average.
History reveals the catastrophic effects of an inverted yield curve only manifest an average 18 months post-onset.
The 2-year/10-year yield curve inverted 22 months in the past.
The 3-month/10-year yield curve inverted 19 months in the past.
In words that are other, recession is overdue.
Might the ocean waves of recent government spending have postponed the scheduling?
We concede the possibility that they have. Government spending can put on a gaudy short-term show.
Yet at what price? A heavy long-term price is the answer.
Ben