Shortages / Price Increases You Expect To See

[elkhound]

Elkhounds down and dirty survival basic

food,water,shelter and security...you will rotate these as need arises.

food..bottomline..you are going to cram some form of calories down your pie hole other wise you starve to death.

water..you going to need it often..how you get it is up to you

shelter..comes in many forms from clothes on your back to roof over your head called home. bible speaks of giving back a person cloak if they gave it to you for loan of money..reason being they needed it for cover at night...think about that on how it was and is currently and might be in future.

security/protection...ranges from a hidey hole like sourdough wanted far away from folks to in a community behind a moat filled with alligators with walls 20 feet high.from a big stick for bashing heads to weapons with laser guided thingy badoodles on it. you choose it.

calories you going to get them either from stored goods or ones you grow or growing and combination of the two.

biggest thing...people under estimate amount of all of the above they need.

one thing i talked about..outside of war...people/society will often just grind out daily survival in place if its possible...just look at the last 50 years..look at last 20...look at venezuela right now...7years and counting..lebanon...3 years and counting..how many have 7 years of stored goods? very very few. but yet most are still in venzuela grind out daily lives..sure some have starved..some been killed..some fled..some are coming back too.

my bottomline is can you produce enough to live on or gather enough to live. have you done it...really done it. also saying i grew all my vegetables for a year is not growing all your calories. wheres the calories count coming from....

i could go on and on and on...

blah blah blah.

no agriculture = no life longterm

prepping worked out to long term conclusion is agriculture for bulk of human society since we been on planet.

just look at places society historical lived. its the belt around center of globe. its called something but i forget its name.

 

[Neb]

Everything made in America is going to cost more.
Everything NOT made in America is going to cost a lot more and be hard to impossible to find.
Hard times they are a coming.

We are over due in recalling...

Ben

 

[Tirediron]

I forgot to mention pasta. If you can get hold of any.
Canada is the world's largest exporter of durum wheat, about 2/3 of the supply for the whole world. Durum wheat is what is used for making pasta.
Canada lost a big portion of their crop due to a severe drought and unprecedented heat.
So until they get a good harvest, we'll continue to see a shortage.
Fortunately, I think I have plenty to last for a good long while.

the price of fertilizer has tripled, so that is going to probably cut the volume a fair bit, Left wing governments are so good for the future, NOT

 

[elkhound]

book of sirach.... Ecclesiasticus ..chapter 39...this book was in original 1611kjb


26 The basic necessities of human life
are water, fire, iron, salt,
wheat flour, milk, and honey,
the juice of the grape, oil, and clothing.

 

[Biggkidd]

Far as stocking up before things run out. Assuming you have the tools and knowledge if not get lots of how to books. Then Stock up on expendable items for building and repair items. Tools and abilities will take one a long ways. Think of what you use to make and build or repair everyday items. IE: drill bits, fasteners, electrical wire & parts plumbing items stuff like that.

 

[Biggkidd]

double

 

[user 55]

Hmm, watching this conversation. Rather interesting someone in this area is so opinionated with so many posts and views in as few days. Provocation or actual knowledge?

 

[Magus]

Filled up the tank on the Blazer today. It had a bit over 1/4 a tank, it was 78$....

 

[Weedygarden]

Filled up the tank on the Blazer today. It had a bit over 1/4 a tank, it was 78$....

How long does a tank of gas typically last you? I fill up once a week, usually, but it hasn't been that high for me yet. My tank holds 15 gallons.

I think that gas will become outrageously priced.

 

[Magus]

I leave the yard twice a month, so a tank will last me likely until spring.
I have severe Agoraphobia, I tend to handle all my business at once if possible, then duck back under my rock.

Agoraphobia is the irrational fear of crowds and places not easily escaped from, I'm claustrophobic as well,
paranoid, schizophrenic, and pretty much a born hermit. I thrive in isolation it seems. LOL

 

[user 55]

Below half a tank. 26 gallons overall and took $78.00 to fill. What ever. I don't drive that much these days but I was prepared for this issue. It will get ugly but we will do as always and suck it up. Less money for other things but thats how the cards are played.

 

[Grimm]

I typically order in bulk from Azure Standard. I ran across some old lists while cleaning off my desk so took the opportunity to compare prices. The only thing that is substantially higher is dairy products. (So far at least - no telling what is yet to come.)

I order from Azure as well. I try to stick with things we use and are basic ingredients rather than pre-made.

I need to place an order next month.

 

[Grimm]

I leave the yard twice a month, so a tank will last me likely until spring.
I have severe Agoraphobia, I tend to handle all my business at once if possible, then duck back under my rock.

Agoraphobia is the irrational fear of crowds and places not easily escaped from, I'm claustrophobic as well,
paranoid, schizophrenic, and pretty much a born hermit. I thrive in isolation it seems. LOL

I use to think I was agoraphobic. Then I figured out I just hate stupid people and can't stand being around them.

 

[Terri9630]

I typically order in bulk from Azure Standard. I ran across some old lists while cleaning off my desk so took the opportunity to compare prices. The only thing that is substantially higher is dairy products. (So far at least - no telling what is yet to come.)

I use Azure too. I've been buying mostly dairy free stuff for the kid. Its the easiest place to find it.

 

[CalicoKatie]

Seems like it would be much easier to make a list of things that you don't think will be in shortage. That would be a mighty short list.

 

[Double R]

I would like to try Azure but they drop a ways from us and the process sounds very time consuming. Maybe someday ill try and order.

 

[Terri9630]

I would like to try Azure but they drop a ways from us and the process sounds very time consuming. Maybe someday ill try and order.

It really doesn't take long. They email you with a pick up time, our driver is normally within a few minutes of it, and then he passes out the boxes. Less than half an hr.

 

[Double R]

It really doesn't take long. They email you with a pick up time, our driver is normally within a few minutes of it, and then he passes out the boxes. Less than half an hr.

Good to know. The few I’ve heard talk about it makes it sound like a big rig rolls in and everyone has to unload it all before anyone can get their items. I’m not patient enough for that. Lol

 

[Terri9630]

Good to know. The few I’ve heard talk about it makes it sound like a big rig rolls in and everyone has to unload it all before anyone can get their items. I’m not patient enough for that. Lol

The boxes are handed out as they come off the trucks at our stop. Maybe its because its a small town stop and they aren't worried about theft?

 

[Grimm]

Good to know. The few I’ve heard talk about it makes it sound like a big rig rolls in and everyone has to unload it all before anyone can get their items. I’m not patient enough for that. Lol

Our drop is pretty organized. The organizer gets there when the rig shows up and her teenagers unload it. She puts everything out grouping each persons orders together. Each person is given a time by the organizer to pick up so it isn't a clusterf*ck. Normally, a few people (myself included) are there early and help unload the truck and can get our stuff before our set time.

 

[Double R]

The boxes are handed out as they come off the trucks at our stop. Maybe its because its a small town stop and they aren't worried about theft?

That would be better for sure. I may look into it a bit more. In the closest town they deliver too theft would definitely be a concern. Although people don’t seem to cook there so maybe

 

[Double R]

Our drop is pretty organized. The organizer gets there when the rig shows up and her teenagers unload it. She puts everything out grouping each persons orders together. Each person is given a time by the organizer to pick up so it isn't a clusterf*ck. Normally, a few people (myself included) are there early and help unload the truck and can get our stuff before our set time.

Ok if both of ya are saying this I guess we’ll give it a go soon.

 

[Grimm]

Ok if both of ya are saying this I guess we’ll give it a go soon.

Try it once to see how your stop works. Just order one item and see.

 

[Double R]

Try it once to see how your stop works. Just order one item and see.

Good idea!!!!

 

[rice paddy daddy]

I think that gas will become outrageously priced.

Bingo!!
Now we are getting there!!
I spent my entire working career, 45 years, in wholesale building materials distribution, so I know a little bit about logistics, trucking, and such.
EVERYTHING will be in short supply soon, due to the rising price of diesel fuel. Locally, it went up 60 cents per gallon in the last four days.
I’ve heard speculation on a number of news and business websites about diesel perhaps hitting $9 per gallon ultimately. If that happens, this country stops.
Right now, it’s almost $5 here. I can not remember it ever being that high before.
At $6 or $7, trucking companies will have to become selective in what loads they haul, looking for the most profitable. Even before then I believe there will be fuel surcharges added to each invoice, just like during the Great Recession.
The average semi gets 6 MPG, and most have two 100 gallon fuel tanks. Think about that for a moment. An independent owner operator who was barely making it two months ago now has to spend $1,000 to fill up, and that might last two days of running.

Everything will be in short supply soon, heck our local small town grocery store has at least half of the shelves in each aisle empty NOW.

My wife could see hard times coming when COVID first broke out two years ago, and since then she has built up our non perishable food, and many other items, to over a three year supply.
How many years worth of important items do you have put back?

Even if rational people can win both houses of Congress, this country will still be in deep trouble until we get the White House too.

Stock up on everything, my friends.

 

[LadyLocust]

@Double R Our Azure is more like Grimm's with all of my order in a stack and Please pick up at said time. I think it's awesome. Place order, pick up curbside, done. The organizer (Paula) is very kind, organized and helpful. No having to deal with stupid people in a grocery store.
@rice paddy daddy I was right there with your Mrs. We were the first state to shut down. My reaction was BS! They are pulling something; hang on tight. The Bible tells us 7 years but many interpret this a little sideways. Doesn't mean you will need 7 years worth. If you have 3 years worth, what will you require to make that excess stretch for 7 years of trial? (I can't answer that because it's different for each of us.) Bottom line, be prepared in some form to deal with it for 7 years.

 

[Katie Müller]

@elkhound - My dad established the basics of shelter; agriculture; water; and security. He was more of the big picture, kind of guy, and I'm the detailed picture sort of girl. So we both worked together. He'd mention things like, 'we'll need canning lids', but his finances were tied up with whatever project or goal he was focusing on, so I'd add his musings to my list.

Canning lids and garden seeds are going to be in major short supply. We order from Territorial Seeds. We placed our order early. But Dollar Tree seeds, for (currently 25 cents a pack) do grow! It's probably 80% + germination rate. I grew a ton of carrots the one year and out of all the packs I put in, one pack was a dud, but I was pretty happy with my harvest for 25 cents a pack!

Also canning lids, besides the Ball lids, Tattler Reuseable Lids are going to be in short supply because of the rubber-rings and the plastic. So that's something to focus on if anyone hasn't already.

@LadyLocust

I had never heard of AzureStandard before so I looked into it; the pick up is too far for me, but I've bookmarked the site. Something tells me, we might need to use it in the future even if we're not doing it now.

It amazes me how many people fretted over the COVID shortages 2 years ago and then when everything returned to normal, the fear suddenly went away and they waved dismissively saying everything will go back to normal. My aunt is only now waking up that maybe she should have gotten more.

@rice paddy daddy That was the wake-up call I needed this morning. I read your post to my mother. We're going to be heading out today when my dad gets home to get some of those items we've been putting off. I know it's going to get really bad, I'm just not sure how fast. A week? Two weeks? A month?

Somehow I doubt there will be mid-term elections. . . .

 

[Katie Müller]

Say good-bye to Chinese imports. So pharmaceuticals are gone.

- Antibiotics
- Aspirin
- Ibuprofen
- Acetaminophen
- Vitamins
- Immunizations: rabies, distemper etc.

And all those vitamins imported are also used in animal food. Dry cat food; dry dog food.

And it reminded me that my cat is due for his rabies this month! So I better go call the vet.


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...nt-xi-will-face-serious-consequences-if-china
China is biding its time and has taken a non-confrontational position so the article says, but our bullying and threatening is going to turn them away from us soon. Could be weeks or months away.

 

[Tirediron]

Another huge and kind of hidden issue is Truck tractor parts, units built in the last 5 years may have bad drive shaft carrier bearings, I know of a 2017 kenworth T880 that has had 2 carrier bearing failures,and another truck close in vin, that also had a failure at the time of the first. the stock of those bearings is about nil, so even if there are goods to ship, who is going to haul them. And before any arm chair expert claims driver abuse, don't bother, I have been in and beside the transport industry for decades, mostly heavy haul, so if over load could cause carrier bearing failure, I would know about it.

 

[Camalot]

My last trip to the store was pretty alarming. Price increases across the board coupled with lesser quantity equates to probably 30-50% inflation in my best estimate. Lots of not seen until now price increases and of course less quantity. Some things not available at all and haven't been available for maybe 3 months. Per example, Family Dollar paper plates. I buy them $10 worth at a time. Haven't found any in 3 months.