..I go to town once a year for supplies, and the last stop out of city is Walmart.... "ALWAYS" have the same first observation. ..They could not do any physical work.......zero...
..This is why I often quip - When SHTF.... '..We're gonna need a Bigger Mop...' The quickly-dead are, I think, unfortunately going to be Deep.. Glad I kept my waders..
..Well, yaaah, now that ya gave All the BGs that Great idea to jacknife huge sand-filled tankers across the highways.. Thanks a Lot, Maaaan.. jk.. HIGHLY suspect any attempt to bug out in a sever crisis that requires you to drive through or past any cities, or town on the way to your BOL is very likely to fail...
I think a 'decent Baseline benchmark' for Most Families (not Already In / 'up to speed' at their Homestead / BOL, etc) is One Full Year of literally Everything* you 'typically Consume / Need' in a year, and across All the 'spectrum' of categories - Food / Shelter / Fuel / Water (gleaning/purification capabilities, etc) / Advanced-Medical / Hunting/Fishing/Trapping / SD, etc / Repairs & Fabrication / Parts, etc)
...And then factor in maybe at Least another +25-30% (or more, if/as-able) for 'Ooops, I forgots' / Extended Family (you determine 'worthy' / a positive-Add, etc) maybe needing help / Losses due to [x] / Zombie raids, etc.. And then secure a way to Transport it ALL in one shot (which, sure, is 'risky', but.. OTOH, you will only be able to 'Have what you can Defend' at any given point..) and/or 'cache ahead' as much as is possible to Keep Secret and/or constantly 'guarded' (ergo: Some in yer Group already "there" / Able to defend, etc..)
..and, of Course there's Always the possibility for 'everything to go to ' - that's true for Everyone.. Even the 'Best, Most-Prepared, Longest Down-the-Road-Peering Person' can suddenly drop dead of a 'widowmaker' or lightning-struck branch to the head, or, heck.. Even 'lead poisoning' (most people don't ever 'see' the long-range sniper's round coming for them at 3K fps, etc..) So, certainly Anything "can happen", but..
..Most likely, IF a given Family can 'make it Thru the First Year' on their Preps, well.. That's probably a 'reasonably-decent amount of time gone by' to gauge how the Next Year+ might track, and they'll also have Learned a LOT in that year - Which can translate to 'smarter successes', Next year, etc... Plus, at least by then we should know if 'Zombies are Real' or not..
Just encouraging that IF you're in the 'Class' / point on the Journey of 'Not Quite Yet in your Cheyenne Mountain Bunker' well.. Don't get discouraged and figure 'we'll never make it, what's the Point', etc, and give up, turning back to the 'Old Norms' that - imo - Soon will Not 'be there'...
'...Remember the Wife of Lot'...
.02
jd
*Caviat: "Everything" should be understood to mean 'Everything Truly Necessary' for basic Survival - will Most-likely need to pair down Many-to-nearly all 'luxuriant' items, ie: Canned Salmon will need to 'trump' Chocolate Eclairs.. But, by the same token, Some Chocolate (ie: Hot Cocoa Mix (stores well/minimally) will go a long way towards 'keeping morale up', etc, and is Great in am-Coffee. etc etc.. Just for some clarity..
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