What would you do faced with 50% inflation?

[haboob]

The first sign it is happening?? What are you looking for? IMHO, it IS happening now.

You may be right...this was announced today:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/wel...wn-all-personal-line-of-credit-accounts-.html

 

[Neb]

As a followup, its why I have always stressed BALANCE in prepping.

Because we never know when SHTF, and because unless you are infinitely wealthy, you can do it all at once, prepping is something that you build up year by year.

But if your plan is something like:

Year 1: buy 10K rounds of ammo.

Year 2, build a bunker

Year 3, buy five years worth of food

Year 4, drill a well

Year 5, install a wood stove

and SHTF on year 2......your screwed.

So if there is such a thing as 'The Aerindel Prepping Doctrine'

Its to keep things in balance as you expand so that you always have matching quantities of the main preps.

If your at the 72 hours stage of prepping, have 72 hours of food, water, shelter and security.

If your at the 72 weeks stage of prepping, have 72 weeks of food, water and shelter and security. Don't be the guy with a lifetime of ammo and a week worth of food.

Because I've been following this doctrine, I have no real problems in the current situation.

Other than boredom and depression.

Have you considered an alaskan saw mill?

We were planning on a Harbor Freight saw mill but they are out of stock when I last checked.

Ben

 

[Neb]

Lumber. You are rich.
I have a building & I just stopped & covered it with plastic, I may not see prices go down, we will see.

My brother made the point a few days ago that we just barely dodged the lumber price spike.

The last few 2x12 we purchased were acquired just as the prices went up.

Ben

 

[INresponse]

I am on year 5 of building my own home. I need a few 2x4's to frame in a tub enclosure and a few pieces of 1-by to trim around some door openings where I used doors meant for a 4" wall in a couple 6 " interior walls but aside from that I am done buying full priced lumber. Monday I scored four 16 foot 2x4's and a 16 foot 2x10 out of the discount pile at home depot, 70% off and the bow or twist is minimal so I can use all the 2x4's cut to length and the 2x10 was purchased to make a roof over a stall for the horse so the slight twist wont be a problem. A $50 2x10 for $15 was something I couldn't pass up.
Someday I want to finish a wall with assorted colored stained boards but until the prices return to normal I will paint the OSB sheeting and call it good. The few things I need to buy have stayed reasonable in pricing, like drywall and door knobs. If this BS keeps up I will get a wood mill and cut what I need out of juniper or pinion pine trees in the area. It wont be ideal but it will work for simple projects.

 

[viking]

My wife gives me a bad time because I didn't listen to her when she said we should get 2X4's and 1/2" plywood to have on hand, but I've been reading that the prices are going to drop, we'll see, if they do we'll get some to have on hand. Thing is, what we have been doing is what we call, "topping off", especially on food its items but also on PVC pipe, fittings and cement and other things for repairing of what we have, as it is, a lot of those items are short on supply and sometimes non-existent. Anyway, whatever we have on hand, it never seems to be enough. Some of the costs of things we would like to get have more than tripled, that sure takes the wind out of our sails. Thing is, when Obama got in office, if people were smart enough to have some visited, they should have realized that was the point of really getting down to business in prepping.

 

[Aerindel]

Have you considered an alaskan saw mill?

We were planning on a Harbor Freight saw mill but they are out of stock when I last checked.

Ben

I have both actually.

And if this goes on long enough, I will re-evaluate my construction plans to use simplified and more primitive construction using local materials.

The difficulty is that this means greatly increased labor and I'm not getting any younger so I'm not automatically going that direction.

I do have options, but the path is not clear to me at present.

 

[Aerindel]

Some of the costs of things we would like to get have more than tripled, that sure takes the wind out of our sails.

Indeed. And it seems like people either get it, or they don't, depending on what and where they are in their economic activity. For some people, the economy is booming and they couldn't be happier, for others we can only look on as our economy is in ruins.

 

[Supervisor42]

You may be right...this was announced today:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/wel...wn-all-personal-line-of-credit-accounts-.html

This is the flipside of inflation that only us survivors of the Jimmy Carter years can tell you about. To try to control inflation, the govt has no choice but to raise interest rates.
If you could get a loan at all, you were thrilled if it was less than 24.9% (the max allowed by law).
Cheap money vanishes fast!
I've already gotten a ping from BOA saying I needed to update my income info. That's a NO!

 

[Haertig]

When we bought our house in 1982, we were thrilled to get a 11.75% interest rate. That was the norm, back then.

 

[Supervisor42]

When we bought our house in 1982, we were thrilled to get a low 11.75% interest rate. That was the norm, back then.

Fixed it forya!

 

[Neb]

When we bought our house in 1982, we were thrilled to get a 11.75% interest rate. That was the norm, back then.

And what a 20% down?

I remember looking at the return on a treasury note and thinking X for 20 years I could be a millionaire. Trouble was I didn't have squat let alone X.

Having a good balance of what you will need, real estate, precious metals, and cash as best one could muster seems appropriate to our time.

Hang on Lady we goin for a ride



Ben

 

[Amish Heart]

I remember 12 percent on our first place in 1983. It was a townhouse in Santa Cruz.

 

[joel]

I researched saw mills & was not impressed with the Harbor Freight saw mill, until I saw a young couple use one on youtube, then saw three men cut up a 27 inch pine log. It may be worth $4000.00.

 

[Aerindel]

I researched saw mills & was not impressed with the Harbor Freight saw mill, until I saw a young couple use one on youtube, then saw three men cut up a 27 inch pine log. It may be worth $4000.00.

I worked at a lumber mill for a few years.

The thing is, cutting up the wood is just one step of actually making commercial quality lumber. If not stacked, dried, planned etc what you build with it will have significant problems. Its all doable but its not just a matter of getting your own mill and building a house from the wood if what you want is a nice, clean, sealed up 'modern' house.

I grew up in a log and rough cut board and bat house as a kid and it was not great. Certainly better than what people lived in for 100,000 years prior....but still, nothing like anything built in the last century from regular commercial lumber.

 

[INresponse]

I worked at a lumber mill for a few years.

The thing is, cutting up the wood is just one step of actually making commercial quality lumber. If not stacked, dried, planned etc what you build with it will have significant problems. Its all doable but its not just a matter of getting your own mill and building a house from the wood if what you want is a nice, clean, sealed up 'modern' house.

I grew up in a log and rough cut board and bat house as a kid and it was not great. Certainly better than what people lived in for 100,000 years prior....but still, nothing like anything built in the last century from regular commercial lumber.

I definitely agree with this. But, for simple projects like planter boxes and chicken coops and yard furniture it should work fine. I live in a desert so I am hoping that stacking it square with small stickers in between each plank and letting it dry for a month is the hot desert air it should be workable. Of course, trial and error and a bit of practice will be in order. I don't expect to be using it to build a home, but if SHTF hard enough normal modern practices are out the window. Which makes me think, I should stock pile nails and construction screws

 

[UrbanHunter]

I think I might buy an extra year's supply of food, but it could require an extra freezer...

I am in the winding down stages of my home building projects so I think I will be investing in things now that I know I will need in the near future...

I remember in the Carter days prices went up much faster than wages and buying power went way down, it was a full decade before things settled down. If history repeats itself, I think we could be in for a long rough patch.... I don't want spend a decade eating popcorn and ramen noodles again......

 

[WVDragonlady]

I will be investing in things now that I know I will need in the near future...

This is what we're doing now
Extra air conditoner, extra propane tanks filled, steel building and extra tons of wood pellets, having all the vehicles gone over by our mechanic, selling stuff we don't want or need anymore and using the money to do all this, preserving more food, stocking up on gardening supplies for the future

Working on getting our "house" in order before it gets worse

 

[Biggkidd]

Stocking up on odd things like wire for the welder and screws & nails, nuts & bolts, metal roofing was a project I worked on for a long time. I can honestly say I more than likely have more of a lot of those items than I will be able to use in my lifetime. I wasn't able to finish stocking up before prices went nuts though. I wanted to get a lot more plumbing stuff. I also stocked up on wire and outlets etc. I worked my may through figuring on having what I needed to make what we might need. Also I stocked up on used and broken equipment for projects and parts. I never did think like most people which has been a saving grace for us. I built the house we live in with mostly bought materials. The next one will be built mostly with materials off our land. We are fortunate to live in a fairly temperate area here in southern Va. Another thing is I have been clearing timberland and turning into pasture and crop areas for the last 13 years. We still have more land with timber growing than cleared land by a long way. I guess what I am trying to say is we have a lot of what we need on hand since I've been stockpiling for over a decade. We also have the ability to grow food both meat and vegetable's. It hasn't been easy stocking up stuff when you're money poor but it is possible IF you don't have to have the latest and greatest of everything.

What most of the population will have to do is learn to live with what they can make or make do with. Which is what I have always done.

 

[Aerindel]

What most of the population will have to do is learn to live with what they can make or make do with. Which is what I have always done.

Currently I'm actually thinking most of the population is going to be fine in the current economy.

Its US that is going to have to make do.

 

[joel]

I am not building a house, maybe an shed or Apiary.
The big thing is to not waste the ten or so trees I have to remove.
Most are pine, a few hard wood.

 

[bamadeb48]

Can more , stock up more,raise a bigger garden.buy some chickens Raise a hog.

 

[Terri9630]

We've added land and more cattle, breeding stock.

 

[Alaskajohn]

Inflation does appear to be a persistent threat.

Inflation Continues Rapid Surge in June - Rises at Fastest Pace in 13 Years

CPI increased by 5.4% over PY.

 

[Hardcalibres]

From 2008 (the year of the GFC) to today:

1. The GDP of the US has increased by about 46%
2. The quantity of US dollars in circulation has increased by about 80%

The US dollar is not worth what it used to be.​

​

The coming inflation will result in a realignment with reality.​

​

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/coin_currcircvolume.htm

 

[Alaskajohn]

From 2008 (the year of the GFC) to today:

1. The GDP of the US has increased by about 46%
2. The quantity of US dollars in circulation has increased by about 80%

The US dollar is not worth what it used to be.​

​

The coming inflation will result in a realignment with reality.​

​

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/coin_currcircvolume.htm

What a bitter pill reality is, and it is of our own making. My mom would always say "you are the one who has to sleep in the bed that you make for yourself."

 

[Neb]

What a bitter pill reality is, and it is of our own making. My mom would always say "you are the one who has to sleep in the bed that you make for yourself."

I am waiting until gold surges.

B

 

[Hardcalibres]

I am waiting until gold surges.

B

It already has:

Gold price in 2008: $US850/oz

Gold price in 2021: $US1800/oz

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/g...MI4ezQpM_h8QIVjJlmAh0KDASBEAAYASAAEgKCNvD_BwE
But many other things that normal people need/use have are yet to adjust to (how much less) greenbacks really are worth now - that is one of the reasons that inflation is coming........

 

[joel]

Gold hit US$2,067.15, the highest price for gold at the time of this writing, on August 7, 2020.

 

[Aerindel]

I really need to dump all this useless money I've saved up. And I'm not being ironic, thats how it feels. Useless.

 

[Supervisor42]

I really need to dump all this useless money I've saved up. And I'm not being ironic, thats how it feels. Useless.

Find a company that has been paying a 6-7% dividend, every year, rock solid, for the last 100 years, and buy stock in them.
*This is not investment advice because I didn't mention which company.