Does anyone else see an economic crash coming?

[Neb]

From the article:

This would most likely imply that 44% of the respondents were rich, and 32% of the respondents were poor.

I read it as an opinion if it is possible for a person to rich and good at the same time.

Ben

 

[DrHenley]

I've been warning about this for years, and now it's here...

 

[SLADE]

seems there is a lot left to play with.

 

[montanabill]

seems there is a lot left to play with.

I once upon a time was heavy into credit cards.
Paying the interest is one thing.....then there is some on the principle, pay for food and living expenses, transportation, medical expenses, ongoing rent or land and property payments, etc etc...
I hope your comment is in jest....if not maybe take a listen to Dave Ramsey..

The coming economic crash will get us all if the child trafficking doesn't collapse the government first.

 

[DrHenley]

seems there is a lot left to play with.

That's someone driving 100 mph straight towards a cliff and saying "I still have 20 feet to play with"

 

[montanabill]

That's someone driving 100 mph straight towards a cliff and saying "I still have 20 feet to play with"

My own little parable when talking to willing people about the coming hard times is the analogy of the native buffalo jumps we have in my area.
The herd gets pushed and scared into running a certain direction and is led sometimes by a few very fast young people each covered with a buffalo skin.
the whole herd gets moving fast and at the last minute the fast running youth in front drop over the cliff to a small shelf as the herd gets pushed over the cliff by those behind them..
That one tribe eats well from the mass of dead and injured buffalo...Excavations have shown 18 feet of compacted buffalo bones at the foot of some buffalo jumps...

My plan includes trying to see the stampede for what it is and quietly moving off to the side of the herd while they thunder past. Then I have to be careful of the side guards that want to whole herd to go over the cliff.

 

[Supervisor42]

That's someone driving 100 mph straight towards a cliff and saying "I still have 20 feet to play with"

Yeah, while nobody was watching, it looks like the Trump-bump "correction" is going to overdo it.
Pretty steep and quick, with no blips.
Even my pitiful stock portfolio is down $10K in 'paper value'
Maybe Santa will bring us a present we can open on January 20th.

 

[Haertig]

Economic ups and downs, stock market crashes, and all this stuff is part of life. It has happened in the past, in this country and in every other country, and it will happen again. You should be ready for it all the time, not just during someone's panicked predictions because of "signs they have seen", like now.

That being said, people should be prepared for large scale and long duration financial downturn. If people are not, then need to move themselves towards this position. You don't accomplish that overnight. You don't do it with a "miracle move" - like cashing in all your stocks and buying gold. And you certainly don't do it only during panicked predictions of imminent financial collapse. By all means, make your move to protect your financial future ... but do it for your entire life. Not just for the predicted collapse of society du jour.

 

[Neb]

Yeah, while nobody was watching, it looks like the Trump-bump "correction" is going to overdo it.
Pretty steep and quick, with no blips.
Even my pitiful stock portfolio is down $10K in 'paper value'
Maybe Santa will bring us a present we can open on January 20th.
View attachment 170052

There is planty of uncertainty in the near future. There are no clear paths ahead and stocks doesn't like uncertainty.

Looking ahead to Jan 20 is most likely prudent at this time.

Ben

 

[SLADE]

I once upon a time was heavy into credit cards.
Paying the interest is one thing.....then there is some on the principle, pay for food and living expenses, transportation, medical expenses, ongoing rent or land and property payments, etc etc...
I hope your comment is in jest....if not maybe take a listen to Dave Ramsey..

The coming economic crash will get us all if the child trafficking doesn't collapse the government first.

I was kidding but it's no joke.

 

[Supervisor42]

There is planty of uncertainty in the near future. There are no clear paths ahead and stocks don't like uncertainty.

Looking ahead to Jan 20 is most likely prudent at this time.

Ben

If it falls much more, do you think it would be a good 'gamble' that stocks will return to 'normal' after the dust of uncertainty settles after January?
I just can't envision it continuing to drop.

 

[Amish Heart]

It's not normal now. It's abnormally high.

 

[Neb]

If it falls much more, do you think it would be a good 'gamble' that stocks will return to 'normal' after the dust of uncertainty settles after January?
I just can't envision it continuing to drop.

Price/ earnings traditionally is 15-20.

Few stocks are in that range now but much higher.

After every crash stocks came back. 1929 took 10 years.

We have lasted well and are sitting on the sidelines until we can get a handle on where the world goes after Jan 20.

Ben

 

[Supervisor42]

Price/ earnings traditionally is 15-20.

Few stocks are in that range now but much higher.

After every crash stocks came back. 1929 took 10 years.

We have lasted well and are sitting on the sidelines until we can get a handle on where the world goes after Jan 20.

Yeah, I need to watch for low P/E ratios :
Both of these 2 have been in business over 100 years and they AIN'T gonna vanish!

How low can you go?

 

[Neb]

Yeah, I need to watch for low P/E ratios :
Both of these 2 have been in business over 100 years and they AIN'T gonna vanish!
View attachment 170095 View attachment 170096
How low can you go?

You asked and Powell delivered. He announced another 0.25% rate cut. S&P is down 1.5% in the last hour and a half.

Only sliver lining is it will reduce the cost of servicing the national debt.

Ben

 

[zoomzoom]

United Health had a banner day today. Up almost 3%. The rest of the market crashed to almost the same percentage. I'll be looking for deals in the morning.

 

[teeceetx]

$36 trillion in debt ... BRICS ... Massive retail closures ...

Hell yes there will be a recession. Only question is just how bad will it be!

 

[Supervisor42]

You asked and Powell delivered. He announced another 0.25% rate cut. S&P is down 1.5% in the last hour and a half.

Only sliver lining is it will reduce the cost of servicing the national debt.

Ben

I didn't do it!!! I promise!

 

[Neb]

I didn't do it!!! I promise!

No.

It was Powell backing down from four rate cuts to two and then news broke that Trump didn't like the spending bill in congress.

As of minutes ago congress doesn't have a backup plan.

Markets don't like uncertainty.

Ben

 

[Supervisor42]

Markets don't like uncertainty.

Ben

TODAY, for my pitiful small portfolio:

Thank goodness I don't rely on 'paper-profits' to make money.
I missed out on the chaos/fun today because I got dragged down to visit DW's aunt, for 6 hours.
...But am now listening to the big rich people crying big tears on the Business News channel.

 

[Sourdough]

I think the FEDS next move will be to tighten. Likely in the second quarter 2025'. They should not have lowered today. But they had trapped themselves. Inflation is currently accelerating.

 

[Supervisor42]

United Health had a banner day today. Up almost 3%. The rest of the market crashed to almost the same percentage. I'll be looking for deals in the morning.

If you score some bargains, please share with us.
Investing, inquiring minds want to know.

 

[Neb]

If you score some bargains, please share with us.
Investing, inquiring minds want to know.

I can't see any clear paths for the markets until government shows its character.

What will be the new government is not clear.

Fourth turning baby!

Sit and wait for now.

Ben

 

[lonewolf]

with the (Labour) govt we have in power in the UK at the moment an economic crash is inevitable they are so incompetent.

 

[old tex]

From the actions that I'm seeing of our present government, if we don't have an economic crash before the first 6 months of next year it's a testament of how strong our country & it's economy is. I've felt all along that the last 4 years had a goal of destroying this country.

 

[zoomzoom]

If you score some bargains, please share with us.
Investing, inquiring minds want to know.

Not going to do anything until a government budget is approved.
I am "watching" Honda & Nissan as they consider a merger.

 

[zoomzoom]

I did pull back a bit a couple weeks ago. Sold a mutual fund that was under performing. Got out while it was still in the black.
Doing so puts my cash reserves in a good position whereby I'm still earning around 4% but have enough to last at least a year to live on without having to sell anything or have enough to grab up some good deals if/as they arise.
Next on my chopping block will probably be Western Union and Ford. If I sell, it'll be to offset other gains.
Ford is down nearly 20% this year, Western Union almost 10%. Even with their dividends, they're still dragging me down.

 

[zoomzoom]

Just pulled up my brokerage account (my non-retirement account) and looked at 1-year performance.
My worst fund has 23% returns
My best fund has 39% returns.
Everything else is around 30%, give or take.

 

[Bacpacker]

Moved some funds around in my 401k. Started a Roth IRA to transfer my Roth 401k to. It has access to much better funds than the 401k has. Plan to move the regular 401k to a PRCA account with the 401k, again for better options

 

[Supervisor42]

Just pulled up my brokerage account (my non-retirement account) and looked at 1-year performance.
My worst fund has 23% returns
My best fund has 39% returns.
Everything else is around 30%, give or take.

Any time I need cheering up, I go and look in on my after-tax account that has the 'evil power company' stock shares in it.
It is a royal pain to get into, so I rarely look in on it.
I key in user name, password and they send me a text with the verification code, which I key in and hit submit...
...Which sends me back to the login screen.
Then I key in user name, password and they send me another text with the verification code, which I key in and hit submit.
The quarterly dividend rolled on Dec. 9th, $1,560. (real money into my pocket)
Gonna hafta pay taxes on $6,000 this year, but I am totally glad to do it!