I have issues with the "SURVIVAL GROUP" theory.

[CrackbottomLouis]

I think the whole question about group "Size" is way down the list of important considerations. People like to "Play" with the group size issue as a distraction from the need to deal with the more uncomfortable issues. Same reason that 97% of preppers only want to jabber about guns and knives. Just as the classic response to nearly everything is, "Well it depends on what you think the SHTF event will materialize as". People want to distract themselves from confronting the hard ugly possibilities.

I think the people here have put a lot of thought into the hard ugly possibilities. This isn't the first discussion we have had on the matter.

 

[ssonb]

We all have to sooner or later have to co-op..There are no one person who can do it all, Well maybe there is but then you run out of time, All of us are interdependent some more than others. All our situations will require that we find the right mixture since none of us has done this before for real.

 

[GaryS]

I think it’s a given that every perfect plan, post-catastrophe, will fail and a new plan improvised to address the immediate need. Ask any combat veteran about that.

Like most of you, my long-ago survival plan was to prepare for years of keeping the extended family alive, safe and healthy. Times change, people change, needs change, and personal ability changes. Now my only plan is to not be a burden to anyone, and to hope things don’t get bad enough that neighbors see our place as their emergency Walmart.

With family members scattered across the country, I can only plan for the two of us…two old people in a world of testosterone laden youth. No group would want us, and I wouldn’t want them. Though prepared to eat, drink, heal, and defend for a few months, my aged body is but a speed bump in any young person’s drive to keep their family alive…as is proper since it follows the natural plan to assure survival of the fittest, and in turn the survival of the species.

In some ways, it’s nice not having to maintain unreal expectations.

 

[Sourdough]

I think the people here have put a lot of thought into the hard ugly possibilities. This isn't the first discussion we have had on the matter.

Thinking about things, and having thoughts about things, and having discussions about "ugly possibilities" is not the same as taking action to mitigate them. For most people prepping is mostly about collecting information, some food and water, a lot of jabbering about guns and knives. Mostly people want to feel good that they made some amount of effort.......if there was a scale and at one end was "Interest" in prepping and viewing it as an entertaining area of interest" and at the other end of the scale is all the stuff they will which they had done but did not do. Most people would not even be on the scale at the lowest level. Without the TV programs hardly anyone would even know that prepping existed as a concept. Almost no one in the prepping/survival community could even name one.......just one......of the birthers of the Modern "Prepper/Survival" concept.

 

[ssonb]

Those TV programs did more harm to ussuns than it "helped" The SF adage "one is none two is one" is what a lot of us in this "world ,lifestyle, community" is at times all we can hope to get as an improvement even to family members. If sumthin happins a little more will be better than having done nothing and at least you tried.

 

[Grizzleyette___Adams]

......a distraction from the need to deal with the more uncomfortable issues. Same reason that 97% of preppers only want to jabber about guns and knives. ........

That's one of several reasons why I appreciate this forum so much. The other 3% seem to be here, a rare and nicely balanced group. The gun/knife forums on some other boards are so active that it takes over most of the feed.

 

[Sourdough]

If sumthin happins a little more will be better than having done nothing and at least you tried.

Mass graves will be full of.........."At least we tried" (There is another saying, "Trying ain't doing"). For the record I have not had a TV thingie or radio for 20 years.

 

[Flight]

@GaryS even though I'm not too old yet (upper 40s) I agree with everything you said. Needs change over time no matter what. Right now with my situation all I can hope for is I make it home in one piece. But you are right the teens, 20s and 30 something will consider us to old to be use ful for their needs.

 

[ssonb]

That is why we have free will. To each they must make their own decision. In the attempt to teach and instruct the lessons are dismissed or postponed with the end result is their reserved space in a mass grave then the fault ,blame or even the blood will not be own your head.

 

[Flight]

That's one of several reasons why I appreciate this forum so much. The other 3% seem to be here, a rare and nicely balanced group. The gun/knife forums on some other boards are so active that it takes over most of the feed.

To me (So far) there is so much more to being prepared then 20 different guns and 5million rounds for said guns. That's why I like this form. Yes I feel it leans towards tactical stuff (not always a bad thing) but also has a good mixture of food and shelter and other things. Jm2c

 

[Sourdough]

. But you are right the teens, 20s and 30 something will consider us to old to be use ful for their needs.

I would not bet on that........I have a theory that the first demographic group to suffer massive death is the 15 y/o to 35 y/o males. Especially in the first 60 days.

 

[The Innkeeper]

Those that are ALWAYS right scare me the most. Can"t reason with them and they cannot see any options but there own path. Safer to be a group of one, at least until the dust settles out.

there are a couple of those here but fortunately the majority of the group is interested or at least pretends to be interested in dialogue. Eventually I just put the former on ignore.

But isn’t one of the joys of being human the fact that we are all different?

 

[Grizzleyette___Adams]

Another reason why I like hanging out with the 3%: discussions, plans, scenarios, (and even some Jerry D. Young-style lists, lol) serve as "iron sharpening iron" each time someone contributes to threads. Best of all...newbies benefit.

There are many of us here who are extremely active in working our SHTF (and discussing/sharing what works/don't work): refining caches, building on BOLs, expanding “stealth” gardens (edibles that are not widely recognized as food), transplanting healing herbs where we want them, exploring all the possible ways to preserve food the old fashioned way (fermentation, etc.) without electricity, or excessive fuel consumption, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

 

[Swing]

To me the real preppers were the great grand parents of most of us. Lived on the land, took care of themselves and when appropriate the neighbors. Suspected some of the new people in the area, etc. From the stories of what I've learned of my Great Grandparents, they were somewhat alone on the farm, but put the mules to the wagon and went to town a few times a year. To me, this is why Prepping and Country Living/Homesteading all fits together.

And whether alone or with a few or more, depends on how you expect to survive, for how long, etc. One way will not work for all. Many here will be best in a group, and at least one possible hermit is better alone from what I see on posts.

 

[Sonya_6]

Those that are ALWAYS right scare me the most. Can"t reason with them and they cannot see any options but there own path. Safer to be a group of one, at least until the dust settles out.

Agree. When in doubt I ask myself "WWASD"? You know like those "What Would Jesus Do" bracelets some people wear, my go to thought is "What would a sociopath do?"

Assume everyone else is a sociopath and weigh the risks/benefits from their perspective (unless the individual could be stupid, if they are stupid they can't weigh the risks/benefits accurately themselves which makes them even more unpredictable).

I use that theoretical question anytime something poses a risk or there is something of value at stake, and if I am ever in a state of serious distress (actually worried someone may pose a threat to the safety of my loved ones or myself) then I use WWASD to think outside the box and evaluate all options available to remedy the situation. If anyone wants to try that method here is a tip -- if you suspect someone could be a threat to you run through the WWASD excercise before telling others about the problem or contacting the authorities. Think of it like SSS in reverse, with shut up being the first step.

 

[Flight]

I would not bet on that........I have a theory that the first demographic group to suffer massive death is the 15 y/o to 35 y/o males. Especially in the first 60 days.

True enough they are more interested in catching Pokemon.

 

[CrackbottomLouis]

Thinking about things, and having thoughts about things, and having discussions about "ugly possibilities" is not the same as taking action to mitigate them. For most people prepping is mostly about collecting information, some food and water, a lot of jabbering about guns and knives. Mostly people want to feel good that they made some amount of effort.......if there was a scale and at one end was "Interest" in prepping and viewing it as an entertaining area of interest" and at the other end of the scale is all the stuff they will which they had done but did not do. Most people would not even be on the scale at the lowest level. Without the TV programs hardly anyone would even know that prepping existed as a concept. Almost no one in the prepping/survival community could even name one.......just one......of the birthers of the Modern "Prepper/Survival" concept.

By and large you're preaching to the wrong choir. Followed a lot of folks here throughout their journey for years as they have me. Not a lot of armchair preppers here. One of the reasons I like this community. We all prep in our own way to our own variables. A lot of good folks here.

 

[Rick]

True.........However I can't grasp that they would have any interest in watching my area. Nothing here.

Its true the tyranny of data applies to everyone.
There really isnt that all seeing eye or Mordor.. because someone looking at a monitor still has to pay attention.

 

[Grizzleyette___Adams]

Google Earth is EVERYWHERE...Satellites pick up the the damndest things...for all to see. Camo is our friend.

 

[Caribou]

Google Earth is EVERYWHERE...Satellites pick up the the damndest things...for all to see. Camo is our friend.

Prepper friends of mine have some semi-remote cabins. I told them that I'd found their green tarp set up in the woods behind their cabins. They denied it (opsec) but I know what I saw. Subsequent viewings do not show the tarp. My goal was accomplished.

 

[Sourdough]

Google Earth is EVERYWHERE...Satellites pick up the the damndest things...for all to see. Camo is our friend.

I buy camo burlap by the case lot from Amazon. But, you need a thermal shield under the camo burlap. I try to utilize deep gulches for remote cache site/camps. And everything here is very thick spruce and hemlock trees. While the main cabin and out buildings are clearly visible, nothing in the forest is visible accept by thermal imaging equipment. I also have decoy trails that I built that pass "Under" an over watch hide.

I figure to burn all the cabins to the ground, anyway.

 

[VenomJockey]

In a long-term SHTF scenario, I don't believe any "group" will make it...eventually the infighting would begin, and the group would fall apart into separate factions. Better to have plans for your own family to make it on their own in an isolated BOL, and the more isolated the better. Granted this would not help "rebuilding America," but it would keep you alive, where most others will not survive. I'll take the "lone wolf" side in this argument...my family and I come first, period, and the name of the game is SURVIVAL.....rebuilding sounds good, but is it really going to work out? I'll take my chances with the family way out in the boonies as isolated as I can get!!

 

[OBG 57]

In a long-term SHTF scenario, I don't believe any "group" will make it...eventually the infighting would begin, and the group would fall apart into separate factions. Better to have plans for your own family to make it on their own in an isolated BOL, and the more isolated the better. Granted this would not help "rebuilding America," but it would keep you alive, where most others will not survive. I'll take the "lone wolf" side in this argument...my family and I come first, period, and the name of the game is SURVIVAL.....rebuilding sounds good, but is it really going to work out? I'll take my chances with the family way out in the boonies as isolated as I can get!!

 

[TMT Tactical]

I buy camo burlap by the case lot from Amazon. But, you need a thermal shield under the camo burlap. I try to utilize deep gulches for remote cache site/camps. And everything here is very thick spruce and hemlock trees. While the main cabin and out buildings are clearly visible, nothing in the forest is visible accept by thermal imaging equipment. I also have decoy trails that I built that pass "Under" an over watch hide.

I figure to burn all the cabins to the ground, anyway.

Decoy trails and prepps are a good idea. I am not a fan of the "Scorched Earth" burn down the cabin concept. I can't see any value in that plan. That just removed a potential asset for your return. Any invaders in your local are coming already equipped. They did not fall out of the sky empty handed. Camo is good and heat reflecting is good but if the invading force is equipped with good quality Thermal equipment, heat shielding is going to be the least of the problems. The intruders are going to most likely fall into one of these categories. Lone wolf, looking for distance from the cities / crowds. Para-Militant group (not escaping families). Escaping Family Group (equipped preppers) AND last but not least, an actual invading Armed Forces types. In all these cases, these folk are coming already equipped and do not need your cabins. Any supplies left behind would be better served to be buried / hidden. Burning the building does not appear to serve any valid logistical or military purpose. A cabin is just a form of shelter. Anyone who reaches your neck of the woods already has portable shelters with them. Plus the smoke from a burning building will be visible for many miles and could draw attention of even more folks.

 

[Rick]

In a long-term SHTF scenario, I don't believe any "group" will make it...eventually the infighting would begin, and the group would fall apart into separate factions. Better to have plans for your own family to make it on their own in an isolated BOL, and the more isolated the better. Granted this would not help "rebuilding America," but it would keep you alive, where most others will not survive. I'll take the "lone wolf" side in this argument...my family and I come first, period, and the name of the game is SURVIVAL.....rebuilding sounds good, but is it really going to work out? I'll take my chances with the family way out in the boonies as isolated as I can get!!

This approach will only work in the most extreme isolated places and may only work for the 0.001% of Americans who are already living in close proximity to such areas.
Which BTW may turn out to eventually get crowded also will still leave you vulnerable to just about anyone. IF you are found.
But you can't just hide in a cave for 10 years (even if that were to work out) and when you emerge hope somebody else will have solved all problems. Not only is this is an extremely selfish approach but I also doubt it will work. why?

Because you are relying on not being found as your "defense" ... but in order to survive long term you have to do agriculture. As soon as you conduct agriculture you suddenly have a footprint.

Everytime one conducts a rational analysis of this problem for 95% of the United States the result is always the same:
As soon as your group size falls below having enough people to "afford" the man hours of 1-2 people away from productive work at guard duty 24/7 your chances of long term survival fall off a cliff, because you are not likely to make it through the bottleneck phase .... this is when too many folks are still alive to feed in a grid down environment.. but most of them are still alive... so they are struggling to take from anyone who has food/water/shelter etc.

This has to do with the types of collapse possible ( and i will not retype and rehash all the analysis on this subject that can be found on this forum alone)

A thread that illustrates the kind of operational analysis necessary and also why so many well meaning intelligent people can disagree on what is "best"... peoples imagination simplyseem to cover themsleves prepping for a different phase...

https://www.homesteadingforum.org/threads/the-phasing-of-a-societys-collapse-my-cut-at-it.1280/

 

[TMT Tactical]

BlueZ:

I plan to be way off the beaten path but that IS NOT my only defense. There are many ways to defend and also many ways to raise food and not leave footprints all over the landscape. Traditional farming and ranching will force folks to leave footprints but there are non-traditional methods that do not require constant exposure. The planing phase is the part where your design has the ability to deal with the many phases of a SHTF event. Who would hunt the lion when there are sheep to hunt. Why is it selfish to not plan to assist in the rebuilding phase? If you did not cause the SHTF event, you do not have any obligation to come out of your cave and help rebuild. The fact somebody planned and was prepared enough to survive, then they have demonstrated enough intelligence to stay out to the new society. In my opinion, the more feet trampling the ground, the easier it is to follow the trail. On mouth requires X amount of food and water. Ten more mouths, equal ten times that amount.

Where is the "Group" going to get their supplies" How are they going handle dissatisfaction from within the ranks? Many families have a built in ranking system and a built in loyalty factor but assembled folks do not have these factors. Group members are betting their lives on the selected "leaders" and as easy as these leaders were selected, they can be abandoned. Who sets the hierarchy? Does the local community leaders decide or the security force or the local food suppliers? Too many unknowns and too many personal agendas to be dealt with. Many of these agendas will be at cross purposes.

What I am tying to point out is that each person, family or group has to make their own choices and no one choice will fit all. JM2C

 

[ssonb]

Heck....The family members will turn on you quicker than almost anyone because they deserved it and they have earned it. Just look at the history of family starting with the first two brothers!

 

[VenomJockey]

This approach will only work in the most extreme isolated places and may only work for the 0.001% of Americans who are already living in close proximity to such areas.
Which BTW may turn out to eventually get crowded also will still leave you vulnerable to just about anyone. IF you are found.
But you can't just hide in a cave for 10 years (even if that were to work out) and when you emerge hope somebody else will have solved all problems. Not only is this is an extremely selfish approach but I also doubt it will work. why?

Because you are relying on not being found as your "defense" ... but in order to survive long term you have to do agriculture. As soon as you conduct agriculture you suddenly have a footprint.

Everytime one conducts a rational analysis of this problem for 95% of the United States the result is always the same:
As soon as your group size falls below having enough people to "afford" the man hours of 1-2 people away from productive work at guard duty 24/7 your chances of long term survival fall off a cliff, because you are not likely to make it through the bottleneck phase .... this is when too many folks are still alive to feed in a grid down environment.. but most of them are still alive... so they are struggling to take from anyone who has food/water/shelter etc.

This has to do with the types of collapse possible ( and i will not retype and rehash all the analysis on this subject that can be found on this forum alone)

A thread that illustrates the kind of operational analysis necessary and also why so many well meaning intelligent people can disagree on what is "best"... peoples imagination simplyseem to cover themsleves prepping for a different phase...

https://www.homesteadingforum.org/threads/the-phasing-of-a-societys-collapse-my-cut-at-it.1280/

1. For me and mine, the name of the game is survival...period, and being totally isolated is the only way I can see that.
2. Selfish? I'm not in agreement there...what is selfish about your own family's survival? If others haven't prepared, tough luck for them, they had the opportunity.
3. Fortunately the BOL is totally isolated, and doesn't require 24/7 guard duty....perimeter radar, dogs, motion detectors will handle 90% of the requirements.
4. Agriculture doesn't have to leave a big footprint....greenhouses handle that, and the BOL is only visible from the air....and anyone in the air during a SHTF is not gonna be looking for isolated BOL's...they're gonna be occupied with other matters.
Granted, there are very few that enjoy complete isolation, but for those that do, that is the only way to go. I'll leave the "rebuilding" to folks that are far more qualified than I.....my interest is simply survival for me and mine.
I will agree that for probably 90%+ a totally isolated BOL is not possible....family concerns, food supplies, financial concerns, etc., will necessitate a small MAG at the very least, but fortunately I don't have those problems.

 

[Caribou]

Our ancestors were part of the building of our country as we are now. If there is a rebuilding then the survivors will participate. The young will repopulate and trade will be necessary because even a shovel wears out eventually. You will have a product or a service that someone wants and they will have something that you want or need.

You may abstain from social interaction but the drives of youth will compel the younger of your group to participate. Anything else means death for your family through attrition.

 

[Rick]

Folks, thanks for being such good sports.
On rereading my post it does seem to sound a bit know-it-all ish yet no one has pushed back on me for it.