priorities & value in hypothetical SHTF scenario

Homesteading & Country Living Forum

Help Support Homesteading & Country Living Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
there have been enough natural and manmade catastrophies since the end of the second world war to make a pretty good assessment of what would happen in the event of a serious occurrence.
however, most people alive today have never known a serious life changing event and therefore their actions in such an occurrence can lead to all manner of debate and conjecture.
most people for instance have never known power cuts of more than a few hours, in these days of internet, mobile phones and the like being out of contact could lead to many doing foolish and life threatening behaviour.
people will bring BBQ's into the house to cook on when the power is down and will promptly set fire to the house or die of smoke inhalation, yes people are that stupid-it has already happened in some places.
when the toilets back up they will be dumping their sewage on the streets, in the hedgerows and in water courses, I believe many more people will die of lifestyle diseases than they will by violent means.
even if they do leave the cities-which is debateable, where will they go? wandering about like the refugees of the second world war carrying all their worldly goods, if they haven't got somewhere specific to go(previously arranged) I don't believe many if any will reach their destinations alive. one thing that is said this side of the pond is "never become a refugee" .
 
Great Britain is such a small area and so heavily populated I don't believe anywhere will escape an influx of people in a complete breakdown. We don't have vast expanses of land between the densely populated areas such as in the USA and South Africa. So I believe the cities would very quickly empy as resources became scarce and the countryside could become overrun very quickly. I often think the will to survive, survival instinct if you like, is grossly underestimated in a modern society. Civilisation will not simply lay down and die, we don't plan to, so why should we believe everyone else will simply because they don't have the right label?
 
depends where you are talking about Sally, around the big cities yes there will be a problem, but without electricity and computers to pump the filling stations just how far will anyone walk? and in which direction? there are so many variables to this subject.
just wandering about hoping to find food, water and shelter could be fatal without a prearranged location in mind.
take for instance someone walking from London to my area-as has been suggested to me not long ago- because of the distance and maybe the need to avoid certain locations this could take in excess of 3 weeks maybe a month-probably longer as they would need to find food, water and shelter along the way which would add to the time, also any group would be walking at the pace of the slowest therefore adding to the time taken. any time out in the open such persons would be subject to attack from scavengers and other people for what meagre supplies they had with them. also there is the weather question too, what if it was winter? this would make the going much more difficult, especially if they had to travel overland.
do you really think this is doable? because I don't, I reckon they will all be dead before they get halfway.
 
Last edited:
Like a lot of British Survivalists Paul, you seem to be fixated on London. I just looked on the map and not including the town you live in, your location has a number of large town and cities eminently within walking distance. This is not to say they will turn up on your doorstep, but they COULD easily be in your locale in a few days and strip the area of every possible resource within a few weeks. It's this that many British preppers refuse to see. After that, maybe folk would die off, but be under no illusion, what they leave in their wake will little more than an inedible metaphorcal desert.
I always smile when I read about British preppers asying they will hunt and live off the land when SHTF. That is of course assuming the rest of the population has left enough of each species to reproduce.
 
depending on where you live and just what kind of SHTF,survival rates are going to be low because of panic in the streets

,if you are well prepared living in the country,wild game and range animals such as cattle goats and wild hogs will not be bothered to badly by this as long as it is not nuclear,rural Americans should survive without to much trouble,the lights will just be out,,,,if you can deal with no power and have a source of water you will be ok,,,,,,

panic and fear will be what kills the most people
 
Based on the logic being thrown out here most seem to think that we're the only smart & logical people of our communities.

In today's age to be associated as a "prepper" is to essentially be labeled as a strange semi delusional outsider of society. I'm sure most here know this. This is why most probably aren't out bragging to your friends about this stuff.

There are negative connotations to be labeled a prepper. Because of this most people keep this stuff to themselves.

I know lots of people who don't consider themselves preppers whom have over a months worth of food and water stored.

I don't know about you guys but by me we have many stores like Cosco to which one is essentially purchasing items in large volume bulk at discounted rate.

People have become "preppers" without realizing it.

There are absolutely no statistics available for such a extreme scenario in modern times. We only know how many days worth of food & water certain rescue organizations like FEMA have of excess food & water stored for emergencies.

It isn't possible to know what people really have cause they aren't volunteering information.

People are FAR more resilient than what most of give em credit for. Plus many of you are forgetting that in such an event large groups would be formed that would substantially increase the likeliness of their survival.
 
Based on the logic being thrown out here most seem to think that we're the only smart & logical people of our communities.

In today's age to be associated as a "prepper" is to essentially be labeled as a strange semi delusional outsider of society. I'm sure most here know this. This is why most probably aren't out bragging to your friends about this stuff.

There are negative connotations to be labeled a prepper. Because of this most people keep this stuff to themselves.

I know lots of people who don't consider themselves preppers whom have over a months worth of food and water stored.

I don't know about you guys but by me we have many stores like Cosco to which one is essentially purchasing items in large volume bulk at discounted rate.

People have become "preppers" without realizing it.

There are absolutely no statistics available for such a extreme scenario in modern times. We only know how many days worth of food & water certain rescue organizations like FEMA have of excess food & water stored for emergencies.

It isn't possible to know what people really have cause they aren't volunteering information.

People are FAR more resilient than what most of give em credit for. Plus many of you are forgetting that in such an event large groups would be formed that would substantially increase the likeliness of their survival.


many of these large groups will be out looting and raiding,they will cause a lot of deaths,I think we will see gang warfare ,no way in hell would I want to be in LA or New York City if the SHTF
 
Like a lot of British Survivalists Paul, you seem to be fixated on London. I just looked on the map and not including the town you live in, your location has a number of large town and cities eminently within walking distance. This is not to say they will turn up on your doorstep, but they COULD easily be in your locale in a few days and strip the area of every possible resource within a few weeks. It's this that many British preppers refuse to see. After that, maybe folk would die off, but be under no illusion, what they leave in their wake will little more than an inedible metaphorcal desert.
I always smile when I read about British preppers asying they will hunt and live off the land when SHTF. That is of course assuming the rest of the population has left enough of each species to reproduce.
I don't know where you live Sally but there are NO cities within walking distance of my location, what town do you think I live in? I have never mentioned it by name on any forum, to my knowledge. Devon only has 2 cities both small compared to most. i'm not fixated on London, I just mentioned it because someone had talked about walking from there to the south west, which is just laughable.i said nothing about hunting and living off the land, don't know where you got that from.
most people in this country don't know where their food comes from, they just go to the supermarket, even if you gave them a rabbit or a pheasant they wouldn't know what to do with it and would probably faint at the first sight of blood, then there is the yuck factor.
sorry, I have no illusions when it comes to the general public, 80% of whom now live in cities or urban centres and rely on the system for their daily survival- although they probably wouldn't call it that, they also wouldn't know that we have a "just in time" delivery service, usually 3 days worth of normal sales which in an emergency will be stripped in as many hours, they probably also don't know that a human being cannot live more than about 3 weeks without food or 3 days without water. they go bananas when their internet is down for a few hours, wait until there is no food in the shops.
 
Last edited:
The one thing I'm getting from this thread is that there are a lot of uncertainties here that have no modern comparisons to judge by. Yes, I am certain that cities will be rough after a few days with food depletion, water or lack of it, sewage and looters. But even the rural areas aren't exempt from this behavour. All I am sure of is if anything major happens we all need to keep our wits about us and react as needed to ever changing situations. The unexpected has a way of happening at the worst possible times, and surviving depends on making the best of changing circumstances. All of us here are making efforts to help us through uncertainties, and I would still put my money on preppers as a whole than the regular civilian population.
 
The one thing I'm getting from this thread is that there are a lot of uncertainties here that have no modern comparisons to judge by. Yes, I am certain that cities will be rough after a few days with food depletion, water or lack of it, sewage and looters. But even the rural areas aren't exempt from this behavour. All I am sure of is if anything major happens we all need to keep our wits about us and react as needed to ever changing situations. The unexpected has a way of happening at the worst possible times, and surviving depends on making the best of changing circumstances. All of us here are making efforts to help us through uncertainties, and I would still put my money on preppers as a whole than the regular civilian population.
I am sure the prepared community will fare much better than those continually with "their heads in the sand".
being able to adapt to the new "normal" which will be like nothing that went before will stand someone in good stead.
 
Last edited:
Bigpaul, I think you are forgetting about all the people in your cities who recently came from places where there was no Rule of Law as we know it, and where finding enough to eat and drink was a daily struggle. They are already taking advantage of the pampered native population. Societal breakdown will be just like home for them, actually better than home because now they will have the upper hand.
 
Most survivors inevitably will have to eventually work as part of a team unit, minimize unnecessary exposure and avoid conflict as much as humanly possible.

Another key component would be operating as efficiently as possible and maximizing limited resources.

Genetics and or conditioning are key here. Some people naturally require less nutrients/fuel to function optimally. Others would have to condition themselves to live off less than normal requirements.

Lastly and possibly most importantly would be WILL.

I don't know you guys but I'm one stubborn SOB. I have been able to out perform people in various scenarios whom were far more equipped/intelligentgifted just out of sheer will. If someone tells me I can't do something my output increases 300%. Will aka HEART will be significant determining factors.
 
Bigpaul, I think you are forgetting about all the people in your cities who recently came from places where there was no Rule of Law as we know it, and where finding enough to eat and drink was a daily struggle. They are already taking advantage of the pampered native population. Societal breakdown will be just like home for them, actually better than home because now they will have the upper hand.
yes you are quite right, I was referring to the home grown natives not the "johnny come lately's"!!:D however they seem to have settled in the predominately big cities, not much work or money for them in the high housing cost/low wage areas of the south west,mostly in the midlands several hundred miles away. and London of course.
 
Most survivors inevitably will have to eventually work as part of a team unit, minimize unnecessary exposure and avoid conflict as much as humanly possible.

Another key component would be operating as efficiently as possible and maximizing limited resources.
the trouble with that scenario is TRUST, are you really going to turn your back on some stranger you have never met before? I sure as hell wont.
and I don't think there is anything "inevitable" about it, depends on the survival rate which will be quite low.
no, I think post SHTF survival will come down to the TRIBAL level, incomers will not be well received.
 
I don't know where you live Sally but there are NO cities within walking distance of my location, what town do you think I live in? I have never mentioned it by name on any forum, to my knowledge. Devon only has 2 cities both small compared to most. i'm not fixated on London, I just mentioned it because someone had talked about walking from there to the south west, which is just laughable.i said nothing about hunting and living off the land, don't know where you got that from.
most people in this country don't know where their food comes from, they just go to the supermarket, even if you gave them a rabbit or a pheasant they wouldn't know what to do with it and would probably faint at the first sight of blood, then there is the yuck factor.
sorry, I have no illusions when it comes to the general public, 80% of whom now live in cities or urban centres and rely on the system for their daily survival- although they probably wouldn't call it that, they also wouldn't know that we have a "just in time" delivery service, usually 3 days worth of normal sales which in an emergency will be stripped in as many hours, they probably also don't know that a human being cannot live more than about 3 weeks without food or 3 days without water. they go bananas when their internet is down for a few hours, wait until there is no food in the shops.


A person with your internet footprint was pretty easy to Google.
I can give you your full name, your wifes's name, your previous address, the reason why you left it, your political preferences, the type of vehicle you drive, your present address(minus the house no.) and enough of a physical description to have you arrested.

I appreciate you consider walking distance a few miles as you seem to think the world ends at the Tamar, but you are within a few days walking distance from Exeter, Plymouth, Bristol, Taunton and several other large towns. I really am quite mystified why you think of the 53million or so people living in England, none of them would think to migrate to the South West!

Having such contempt for your fellow man is done at your peril. People may not know exactly where their food comes from, but they know enough that meat comes from animals. When you're hungry, that's good enough and the yuck factor is easily overcome.
 
19e6eec1db8d0156565a178f8d57a362_cheers-meme-mic-drop-meme-mic-drop_600-400.jpeg
A person with your internet footprint was pretty easy to Google.
I can give you your full name, your wifes's name, your previous address, the reason why you left it, your political preferences, the type of vehicle you drive, your present address(minus the house no.) and enough of a physical description to have you arrested.

I appreciate you consider walking distance a few miles as you seem to think the world ends at the Tamar, but you are within a few days walking distance from Exeter, Plymouth, Bristol, Taunton and several other large towns. I really am quite mystified why you think of the 53million or so people living in England, none of them would think to migrate to the South West!

Having such contempt for your fellow man is done at your peril. People may not know exactly where their food comes from, but they know enough that meat comes from animals. When you're hungry, that's good enough and the yuck factor is easily overcome.


Zaaaaaang! Sally dropped the mike.
 
Last edited:
the trouble with that scenario is TRUST, are you really going to turn your back on some stranger you have never met before? I sure as hell wont.
and I don't think there is anything "inevitable" about it, depends on the survival rate which will be quite low.
no, I think post SHTF survival will come down to the TRIBAL level, incomers will not be well received.

Who's to say most would have a true choice. Most would probably be forced to choose between the lessor of two evils.

Trust is essentially risk and risk would be a key component of long term survival.

Besides you cannot get trust without trust. If trusting means surviving another day then I'll take my chances. Intuition is a component to trusting as well.
 
80% of the US populations lives in cities city suburbs, the nation is only fed by less than 2% of the population ;)

Also, the EMP Commission report (pdf) Government challenges and response, you can scroll down around page 150 on food challenges, further down it talks about blackouts, the whole piece is a good read (208 page report) by the time the government figured the cost to implement the recommendations of this report it was faced with the realities of the total cost and gone no where since the report, similar to the GridEx I, II and later III Federal drills. Like a lot of things in Congress, once cost is determined it dies in committee.
 

Attachments

  • A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf
    7.2 MB
80% of the US populations lives in cities city suburbs, the nation is only fed by less than 2% of the population ;)

Also, the EMP Commission report (pdf) Government challenges and response, you can scroll down around page 150 on food challenges, further down it talks about blackouts, the whole piece is a good read (208 page report) by the time the government figured the cost to implement the recommendations of this report it was faced with the realities of the total cost and gone no where since the report, similar to the GridEx I, II and later III Federal drills. Like a lot of things in Congress, once cost is determined it dies in committee.
article-2366393-1AD8BB42000005DC-222_634x930.jpg

That's like...your opinion man...
 
A person with your internet footprint was pretty easy to Google.
I can give you your full name, your wifes's name, your previous address, the reason why you left it, your political preferences, the type of vehicle you drive, your present address(minus the house no.) and enough of a physical description to have you arrested.

I appreciate you consider walking distance a few miles as you seem to think the world ends at the Tamar, but you are within a few days walking distance from Exeter, Plymouth, Bristol, Taunton and several other large towns. I really am quite mystified why you think of the 53million or so people living in England, none of them would think to migrate to the South West!

Having such contempt for your fellow man is done at your peril. People may not know exactly where their food comes from, but they know enough that meat comes from animals. When you're hungry, that's good enough and the yuck factor is easily overcome.
because I don't believe anyone will make it out of the cities alive.
I do get annoyed when people make their remarks personal.
its none of your ****** business.
too many trolls on forums, oh well-I've been thinking for a long time that its time "big paul" died and I need to reduce my forum levels, maybe now is the time.
this is why I don't trust other people.
I am really pissed off now.
 
Last edited:
Who's to say most would have a true choice. Most would probably be forced to choose between the lessor of two evils.

Trust is essentially risk and risk would be a key component of long term survival.

Besides you cannot get trust without trust. If trusting means surviving another day then I'll take my chances. Intuition is a component to trusting as well.
take a risk and it'll probably prove fatal.
 
take a risk and it'll probably prove fatal.

And your lone ranger philosophy won't?

because I don't believe anyone will make it out of the cities alive.
I do get annoyed when people make their remarks personal.
its none of your ****** business.
too many trolls on forums, oh well-I've been thinking for a long time that its time "big paul" died and I need to reduce my forum levels, maybe now is the time.
this is why I don't trust other people.
I am really pissed off now.

Maybe it's time to realize that you don't have all the answers. None of us do. Especially at it relates to an event that has never happened in the entire spectrum of modern history.
 
Toexist, I don't know what you know about the countryside, but there are plenty of places that aren't conducive to just wandering around the countryside in the hopes of stumbling across a suitable place to pillage.

My BOL is not nearly as remote as the majority of "flyover country", but to get there from the nearest "population center" (population 2,000 LOL) you:
Cross a major river
Drive 10 miles down a state highway
Turn off on an unmarked county road
Drive two miles on the unmarked road (y0u will pass exactly one house in those two miles, and the next house is 8 miles farther down the road)
Turn off into an unmarked field road
Drive 1 mile down the field road across a cotton field into the woods at the other end of the cotton field
Turn off onto a smaller road into the woods
Drive 1/2 mile into the woods.

Once you leave the state highway, there are no signs to let you know what road you are on. There are a myriad of field roads, most of which lead to nowhere but the other end of the field. It is NOT a target rich environment by any stretch of the imagination. I can give someone driving directions because I can give them exact distances to travel. But for someone on foot, I can't even begin to give directions to the place. Because of dense vegetation and swamps, you can't just wander across the countryside and stumble across it accidentally.

I doubt if the horde will even leave the state highway. There are too many pillaging opportunities right on the highway to bother heading out across cotton fields aimlessly for mile after mile.
 
Toexist, I don't know what you know about the countryside, but there are plenty of places that aren't conducive to just wandering around the countryside in the hopes of stumbling across a suitable place to pillage.

My BOL is not nearly as remote as the majority of "flyover country", but to get there from the nearest "population center" (population 2,000 LOL) you:
Cross a major river
Drive 10 miles down a state highway
Turn off on an unmarked county road
Drive two miles on the unmarked road (y0u will pass exactly one house in those two miles, and the next house is 8 miles farther down the road)
Turn off into an unmarked field road
Drive 1 mile down the field road across a cotton field into the woods at the other end of the cotton field
Turn off onto a smaller road into the woods
Drive 1/2 mile into the woods.

Once you leave the state highway, there are no signs to let you know what road you are on. There are a myriad of field roads, most of which lead to nowhere but the other end of the field. It is NOT a target rich environment by any stretch of the imagination. I can give someone driving directions because I can give them exact distances to travel. But for someone on foot, I can't even begin to give directions to the place. Because of dense vegetation and swamps, you can't just wander across the countryside and stumble across it accidentally.

I doubt if the horde will even leave the state highway. There are too many pillaging opportunities right on the highway to bother heading out across cotton fields aimlessly for mile after mile.

That is the environment to which you feel safest and I understand/respect that. My philosophy is to do the exact opposite of what the majority does. If everyone is going left I'm going right. If everyone flees out of the cities I'm staying in them. In my opinion you have more options to default to in major city.

In rural area you will be fine as long as you are never exposed. Once someone notices location...they will bring others.

If I were in a rural area I would definitely want to be part of a larger group more so than if I were in city.
 
LOL, there is a place 11 miles south of the BOL I was trying to look at. Looking at the map, I couldn't figure out the best way to get there, so I let Google Maps find a route. Here is one of the roads I was directed to turn on by Google Maps (this is actually a public road) The "Sanders" sign is an advert for a seed and feed store.

PublicRoad_zpsn2957vau.png
 
In today's age to be associated as a "prepper" is to essentially be labeled as a strange semi delusional outsider of society. I'm sure most here know this. This is why most probably aren't out bragging to your friends about this stuff.

There are negative connotations to be labeled a prepper. Because of this most people keep this stuff to themselves.

Most survivors inevitably will have to eventually work as part of a team unit, minimize unnecessary exposure and avoid conflict as much as humanly possible.

Lastly and possibly most importantly would be WILL.

I don't know you guys but I'm one stubborn SOB. I have been able to out perform people in various scenarios whom were far more equipped/intelligentgifted just out of sheer will. If someone tells me I can't do something my output increases 300%. Will aka HEART will be significant determining factors.

First quote: Because of the mainstream media corrupting the title that is the exact reason why the classes/meetup that I am trying to organize intentially does not have any prepper labeling. I am using home preparedness, homesteading, bushcraft etc. I am trying to keep prepper and survivalist as far away as I can.

Second quote: I totally agree, especially about having will power. After a major SHTF event a lot of people will commit suicide. If I remember right part of the 90% death figure for after an EMP was suicides. People will have to have will power to overcome and survive. Our grandparents came from a hearty stock of people. Our modern society is so fricken weak it is disgusting. Even the church is weak. Pastors are scared to offend. In Cadillac there is a church that flies the gay pride flag. To me that is a slap in Gods face. Yes we are to love sinners but not accept the sin. I'll quite now while I am ahead or I will go on a rant, LOL.
 
First quote: Because of the mainstream media corrupting the title that is the exact reason why the classes/meetup that I am trying to organize intentially does not have any prepper labeling. I am using home preparedness, homesteading, bushcraft etc. I am trying to keep prepper and survivalist as far away as I can.

Second quote: I totally agree, especially about having will power. After a major SHTF event a lot of people will commit suicide. If I remember right part of the 90% death figure for after an EMP was suicides. People will have to have will power to overcome and survive. Our grandparents came from a hearty stock of people. Our modern society is so fricken weak it is disgusting. Even the church is weak. Pastors are scared to offend. In Cadillac there is a church that flies the gay pride flag. To me that is a slap in Gods face. Yes we are to love sinners but not accept the sin. I'll quite now while I am ahead or I will go on a rant, LOL.


yeah being politically correct is killing this country,,,hell a large portion of the modern world,,,I call a spade a spade and believe that is the way it should be,no trophy's for just showing up ,,,,yeah it is hard not to go on a rant on these type of subjects
 

Latest posts

Back
Top