Today, Saturday I just bought a couple grand worth of Silver

[Neb]

This is correct. They do not pay a dividend, but....
If we had 20% inflation this year and you bought silver in February, you have not suffered a loss, unlike keeping your money in a CD that pays only pays 2%.

Yes if one is just holding it.

The value of what have went up so we sold enough to cover our annual withdrawals from our retirement savings for 1.5 years. And we still have as much in PM as we purchased. So we did " make money".

The theory is if PMs go down we can buy more to keep up the face value. Buy low, sell high.

Ben

 

[Neb]

One theory is that gold never changes that much. The dollar fluctuates. When you were spending $250/oz for gold that same $250 could buy X. That same X today would cost you around $2,000. When the Dollar is no longer the reserve currency, good luck finding gold or silver anywhere near today's prices. PM's are a hedge, You never make anything, you prevent a loss.

My adviser was talking about how much a new suit cost him and asked us to guess. I guessed the spot price of gold. He was surprised I guessed right and asked how I knew. I reminded him about the rule that a good suit costs an oz of gold.

Ben

 

[Biggkidd]

I'd just about double my little investment in silver if I sold now. IIRC I paid 11 an ounce...

 

[LadyLocust]

Interesting prices of G and S the past couple days.

 

[Magus]

Something is coming, something fairly big. Any major sell offs?

 

[Neb]

Something is coming, something fairly big. Any major sell offs?

None that I heard of.

Ben

 

[Neb]

Interesting prices of G and S the past couple days.

I read a news letter saying gold going to $2500.

Ben

 

[Bacpacker]

Just conicideing with another run up on the markets

 

[Tacitus]

I read a news letter saying gold going to $2500.

Ben

Of course...you could probably find a newsletter from 1995 that said that.

 

[LadyLocust]

Seeing articles (haven't been able to read them yet) re. the dollar failing. Gold is worth more than paper regardless of markets.

 

[Supervisor42]

Just conicideing with another run up on the markets

Yeah, nobody mentioned that the Dow set a new record and is resting comfortably above the 37,000 mark lately.

 

[Tacitus]

Yeah, nobody mentioned that the Dow set a new record and is resting comfortably above the 37,000 mark lately.

Yeah...interesting that gold is still "high" given that.

 

[LadyLocust]

My 2 c. : I think our "elites" are keeping the mkt. up in an attempt to prevent panic.
Other countries, bank leaders, and the Vatican have all been purchasing gold over the past 3 years.
It does seem like they are pulling the ol' do as I say not as I do routine.
Maybe it's just me.

 

[Supervisor42]

Yeah...interesting that gold is still "high" given that.

Likely tons of people all saying: "I need to hide my money before the end of the year, because tax time is coming!"
They are buying EVERYTHING they can find.

 

[Tacitus]

Other countries, bank leaders, and the Vatican have all been purchasing gold over the past 3 years.

I'm wondering if you have a link to that. I've searched, and can find nothing. I'm not saying you are wrong. After all, it would be smart for the Vatican to hold gold...the Vatican is a long term entity which plans to be in existence until the Second Coming...and is the oldest continuing organization in existence on the Earth today.

But, the Vatican holdings in gold are generally peanuts (in the tens of millions, not counting artistic/antiquity values), and definitely not enough to prop up any markets. And the Vatican could not care less regarding short term fluctuations in gold or any other asset. People (especially Catholics) often get angry at the Vatican for not taking a shorter term view at times...but the Vatican tends to think in terms of millennia, not financial quarters or years.

I will note that Pope Francis has been decentralizing the management of the Vatican's national/state wealth holdings due to fraudulent activities by the people who managed it when it was more closely and secretively held. He has been pushing management of their "state 401k" to international money managers, to be managed in a more traditional manner. If those wealth managers are buying gold (either for the Vatican or for anyone else), that would be something for all of us to note.

 

[LadyLocust]

I'm wondering if you have a link to that. I've searched, and can find nothing. I'm not saying you are wrong. After all, it would be smart for the Vatican to hold gold...the Vatican is a long term entity which plans to be in existence until the Second Coming...and is the oldest continuing organization in existence on the Earth today.

But, the Vatican holdings in gold are generally peanuts (in the tens of millions, not counting artistic/antiquity values), and definitely not enough to prop up any markets. And the Vatican could not care less regarding short term fluctuations in gold or any other asset. People (especially Catholics) often get angry at the Vatican for not taking a shorter term view at times...but the Vatican tends to think in terms of millennia, not financial quarters or years.

I will note that Pope Francis has been decentralizing the management of the Vatican's national/state wealth holdings due to fraudulent activities by the people who managed it when it was more closely and secretively held. He has been pushing management of their "state 401k" to international money managers, to be managed in a more traditional manner. If those wealth managers are buying gold (either for the Vatican or for anyone else), that would be something for all of us to note.

I will have to see what I can find. I don’t keep them filed or anything and like I said over the course of the past few years. I can certainly post as I see things though. Guess I figured if I was seeing something so was everyone else.

 

[Supervisor42]

I will have to see what I can find. I don’t keep them filed or anything and like I said over the course of the past few years. I can certainly post as I see things though. Guess I figured if I was seeing something so was everyone else.

Actually, it is pretty easy to see when a Saudi billionaire buys up million$ of it in just one day.
Like when it zoomed above $2150 in 12 hours:

 

[Neb]

Actually, it is pretty easy to see when a Saudi billionaire buys up million$ of it in just one day.
Like when it zoomed above $2150 in 12 hours:
View attachment 121337

Here is a 11 minute video that may shine some light on question of a recesion coming.



As I understood the historical analogies we are at the cusp now with a possible couple of months of melting up before the markets drop OR lanches into a new bull market. The later being rare.

Two factors are the fed rates, and the unemployment rate.

Re: unemployment rate

With Baby Boomers moving into retirement, the unemployment is a twisted factor.

Ben

 

[Supervisor42]

Here is a 11 minute video that may shine some light on question of a recesion coming.
As I understood the historical analogies we are at the cusp now with a possible couple of months of melting up before the markets drop OR lanches into a new bull market. The later being rare.
Two factors are the fed rates, and the unemployment rate.
Re: unemployment rate
With Baby Boomers moving into retirement, the unemployment is a twisted factor.
Ben

I love the guy using the term "melting up".
After the meteoric rise in markets in the recent past, will there be a "correction", certainly. A recession? I don't think so.
I think when the calendar flips soon, a lot of people will see 'the light at the end of the tunnel' that the 'Obama 2.0' years will end.

 

[Bacpacker]

The current rise would call meteorological. Yeah it's went up pretty good, but we seem jumps and drops the last decade of so in a day or 2 of similar amounts. And the bulk of it is a smaller number of companies. It not a wide spread event like a typical run up is. After the drop is September and October, which seems to happen many years, its not surprising to have a climb in the markets. Whether it continues for a lengthy period or not remains to be seen.

 

[Supervisor42]

The current rise would call meteorological. Yeah it's went up pretty good, but we seem jumps and drops the last decade of so in a day or 2 of similar amounts. And the bulk of it is a smaller number of companies. It not a wide spread event like a typical run up is. After the drop is September and October, which seems to happen many years, its not surprising to have a climb in the markets. Whether it continues for a lengthy period or not remains to be seen.

Well, if you were playing along today, it plunged 475 points in the last couple hours and is now hovering around 37K. Tomorrow should be interesting.
You might want to tune in...

 

[Bacpacker]

I keep Market Watch, Monex, and Bloomberg Energy sites running on the puter everyday. Got a spreadsheet set up to record the daily finals and track over time.

 

[LadyLocust]

 

[Neb]

This video talks about the "Sahm Rule" which indicates a recesion is coming.



Recessions are declared after quarters of negative growth. So we don't know it is officially a recesion until 6 months. The Sahm rule detects the recession soon after it starts.

Ben

 

[Supervisor42]

This video talks about the "Sahm Rule" which indicates a recession is coming.
Recessions are declared after quarters of negative growth. So we don't know it is officially a recession until 6 months. The Sahm rule detects the recession soon after it starts.
Ben

...Come, baby come!
Hopefully it will be quick.
If they keep JB going for another 4 years, it will be 2008 all over again.
And I'll be too old to enjoy the megabux by the time it ends.

 

[Supervisor42]

OMG! Gold prices are finally moving for the first time in 2024!
And it doesn't appear to be a 'billionaire blip' like I mentioned above.
It has been stuck in the ~$2050 doldrums all year.

 

[Cascadian]

Alaska Prepper was saying that the $30,000 income in 1983 is equivalent to $162,000 today. Basically 5 times as much. In that same time gold went from about $300 to $2000. This shows how much the dollar and our purchasing power have been diluted and diminished. The video before this was longer and more detailed.

 

[Supervisor42]

OMG! Gold prices are finally moving for the first time in 2024!
And it doesn't appear to be a 'billionaire blip' like I mentioned above.
It has been stuck in the ~$2050 doldrums all year.
View attachment 125373

It's not a blip, folks.
Updated graph from today:

 

[Tacitus]

So hard to keep buying. I stopped awhile ago, but I don't think it is going back down. And, if it is going to go up, that means I should be a buyer.

My latest thought: For every dollar I spend on alcohol, spend the same amount on gold. That would be good for my physical health (slowing down my drinking by half), and good for my financial health (forcing me to store some of my savings in the form of gold).

Edit to add this: Plus, it is the same in a bull market...why buy stock if the market is high already? And yet, you can't time the market. If you hold in cash, you will never participate in the bull market. The only reason not to participate in the equity markets is if you plan on cashing out soon. If you plan on holding even for a few years, it makes sense to buy.

 

[Neb]

So hard to keep buying. I stopped awhile ago, but I don't think it is going back down. And, if it is going to go up, that means I should be a buyer.

My latest thought: For every dollar I spend on alcohol, spend the same amount on gold. That would be good for my physical health (slowing down my drinking by half), and good for my financial health (forcing me to store some of my savings in the form of gold).

Edit to add this: Plus, it is the same in a bull market...why buy stock if the market is high already? And yet, you can't time the market. If you hold in cash, you will never participate in the bull market. The only reason not to participate in the equity markets is if you plan on cashing out soon. If you plan on holding even for a few years, it makes sense to buy.

We just told our advisor ok to sell half of gold holdings. If the price drops we locked half of our gains. If it keeps going up we still have piece of the action.

Not investment advise!

Ben