Does anyone else see an economic crash coming?

[Amish Heart]

And Brics will be digital and controlling. Not good.

 

[Haertig]

My goal is to hit 0 on the bank account by Jan 1st. Use it, or lose it. Gonna be one hell of a christmas....even if its all solar panels, car parts and beans.

That sounds scary, having no monetary reserves. But maybe I read your words wrong - and you're not talking about giving up on money, just giving up on keeping your money in banks.

Keep us informed on how that turns out, if you can. Libraries usually have free computers and free WiFi if you decide to shut off internet service at your home. You're probably one of the better prepared for what you are planning on doing than the rest of us. But it does sound a little like intentionally creating your own personal SHTF before the S actually HTF. Like, how are you planning on paying taxes? They're not going to barter for that - they expect money.

 

[elkhound]

And Brics will be digital and controlling. Not good.

an interesting aspect of brics is theres going to be a section or a way..not suyre what you call it....where folks can trade commodity for commodity...no funds...just real life trade...one firm was doing this in europe back during 08-10 crash and n one could get big funds at the time. big bankers didnt like that as they didnt/couldnt get a cut of deals....lol...leeches

brics for past year as a form of a type of visa card already and people are using it more and more now as its active in vacation destinations.

 

[zoomzoom]

That sounds scary, having no monetary reserves. But maybe I read your words wrong - and you're not talking about giving up on money, just giving up on keeping your money in banks.

That's what I was thinking. Quitting on a financial market that (properly invested) doubles your money every 7 years isn't a strategy I'd take.
I've made enough from the stock market in the last 2 weeks to cover all my bills for a year... and then some.

 

[montanabill]

And they'll push it up to Trumps term.

I saw something about china not going along with brics....With germany having issues this whole house of cards could flatten.

 

[montanabill]

That sounds scary, having no monetary reserves. But maybe I read your words wrong - and you're not talking about giving up on money, just giving up on keeping your money in banks.

Keep us informed on how that turns out, if you can. Libraries usually have free computers and free WiFi if you decide to shut off internet service at your home. You're probably one of the better prepared for what you are planning on doing than the rest of us. But it does sound a little like intentionally creating your own personal SHTF before the S actually HTF. Like, how are you planning on paying taxes? They're not going to barter for that - they expect money.

We keep little in the bank compared to some folks. Pay the bills and the local bigger ones we work with cash. Still leaves a trail but I mainly don't want to wake up monday morning with nothing or very little available in my account.
Helping the older teens build some tiny houses and ramping up for more chickens and a lot more garden next spring is keeping my life exciting.
Gotta price out a couple bunks of cheap 2X4's and a stack of wafer board for investment purposes.

 

[Amish Heart]

I look at brics at not much different as what's been going on with the dollar. Just new bosses.

 

[Quark]

The Stock market and housing are still going up like everything is great out there. Why do I feel like I’m the only one that sees the cliff the economy is about to go over?

You aren't the only one. The Fed and government are caught between a rock and a hard place. Raise interest rates crash the economy. Lower the interest rate crash the economy.

Cut spending crash the economy. Spend fiat currency crash the economy.

The problem is when does the Great Depression II hit.

 

[Quark]

When the Great Depression II comes it will last at least half century if not two or three centuries. And it will be worldwide.

 

[Amish Heart]

I don't know how long it will last, but it is coming. The Greater Depression.

 

[Aerindel]

That sounds scary, having no monetary reserves. But maybe I read your words wrong - and you're not talking about giving up on money, just giving up on keeping your money in banks.

Keep us informed on how that turns out, if you can. Libraries usually have free computers and free WiFi if you decide to shut off internet service at your home. You're probably one of the better prepared for what you are planning on doing than the rest of us. But it does sound a little like intentionally creating your own personal SHTF before the S actually HTF. Like, how are you planning on paying taxes? They're not going to barter for that - they expect money.

Not scary at all. We have no debt. I had to pay taxes once, in 2006....I've made sure to never make enough money to owe taxes since then. We always get thousands back every year. Of course now that you mention it, there are still the property taxes....But that amounts to half a months pay per year so no big deal.

No SHTF at all, just don't want to be stuck with a bunch of useless money....or a bunch of money when prices jump up by 25% and there isn't anything buy.

If nothing happens, then we still have the exact same income + an additional year or so of preps on top of what we already have.

If something DOES happen, then we have converted money, into the things we would have bought with that money, just a much better exchange rate.

What is predicted, or perhaps promised, is a 25% increase in prices, coupled with an even greater reduction in availbility. This a perfect recipe for hyper inflation.

Scary is having a lot of unspent money sitting in the bank that could lose half its value without spending any of it.

Most people are the other way around, being deeply in the red by hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of loans, so even at 0, we would already be far better off than the vast majority of people are right now.

Its nothing more than shopping ahead of time. If you think you are going to buy $10k worth of stuff over the next year and you have $10k in the bank....just buy all that stuff NOW, before that $10K worth of stuff costs $15K.

That's what I was thinking. Quitting on a financial market that (properly invested) doubles your money every 7 years isn't a strategy I'd take.
I've made enough from the stock market in the last 2 weeks to cover all my bills for a year... and then some.

I've never had a single cent 'invested' in anything so that is moot.

 

[elkhound]

yea..i dont want to be broke all the time....life realities happen all the time...look at flood in southeast happened a month and half ago....if you had cash i bank you could walk away if lost everything and put a roof over your head again....entire homes and sides of mtns collapsed....life realities...my grandmother at end of her life had to go into home....there was no place for her and she needed serious help with meds because of her brain....it took 10k to get her through the door alone.

vehicles break down and blow up and more....i want to be able to put a ride under my rear no matter what......

repairs on home....roofs,waterwell repair and list goes on and on...all cost 1000's...new roof on my parents home last year....12k.

not having emergency money is foolish...as foolish as not having years worth supplies as well.

no matter...if you happy then i am happy...but life lessons for me and my family and friends taught me not be broke with zero in bank or in hand and available to fix problems i cant fix or fix it faster.

 

[Aerindel]

no matter...if you happy then i am happy...but life lessons for me and my family and friends taught me not be broke with zero in bank or in hand and available to fix problems i cant fix or fix it faster.

Its a gamble....but all money games are. Keeping money in the bank is a gamble too.

I'm betting that the chances of hyper inflation in the new year, are higher than my chances of needing large amounts of money suddenly. Its that simple, and I view it as low risk, even if I am wrong.

Almost everything that people spend thousands on, I know how do myself for pennies on the dollar. I've long had a two is one and one is none policy with things like cars, I could wreck three cars in a row before I was out of cars, and that is before I even need to borrow my wife's

And a big chunk of money I'm trying to spend before it burns, is going into the cars, the house, etc, all stuff that I would need to spend it on anyway but haven't gotten to yet.

Hell, I guess if I need a bunch of money, I'll just do what all the normies do, borrow it.

 

[SLADE]

Predicting the next depression is like predicting the second coming of Christ.
It's not something to worry about.

 

[montanabill]

I don't worry about the next depression, I make plans on how to weather it and I make plans for how others I care about can weather it..

 

[elkhound]

Its a gamble....but all money games are. Keeping money in the bank is a gamble too.

I'm betting that the chances of hyper inflation in the new year, are higher than my chances of needing large amounts of money suddenly. Its that simple, and I view it as low risk, even if I am wrong.

Almost everything that people spend thousands on, I know how do myself for pennies on the dollar. I've long had a two is one and one is none policy with things like cars, I could wreck three cars in a row before I was out of cars, and that is before I even need to borrow my wife's

And a big chunk of money I'm trying to spend before it burns, is going into the cars, the house, etc, all stuff that I would need to spend it on anyway but haven't gotten to yet.

Hell, I guess if I need a bunch of money, I'll just do what all the normies do, borrow it.

having savings is basic prepping 101...as well as supplies you mentioned.

having cash is a basic...all through history savings..or call it coffers were/are a must....on individual levels as well as state and or country/kingdom/empire ...there will be a time when you get older and lose ability to age you will wish you had saved more...right now theres several in prepper community living that situation out as we type and post.

but like i said...you happy so am i....

i have a family member recently lost eye sight...he can hardly get tiny flat yard mowed.

 

[mml373]

Not scary at all. We have no debt. I had to pay taxes once, in 2006....I've made sure to never make enough money to owe taxes since then. We always get thousands back every year. Of course now that you mention it, there are still the property taxes....But that amounts to half a months pay per year so no big deal.

No SHTF at all, just don't want to be stuck with a bunch of useless money....or a bunch of money when prices jump up by 25% and there isn't anything buy.

If nothing happens, then we still have the exact same income + an additional year or so of preps on top of what we already have.

If something DOES happen, then we have converted money, into the things we would have bought with that money, just a much better exchange rate.

What is predicted, or perhaps promised, is a 25% increase in prices, coupled with an even greater reduction in availbility. This a perfect recipe for hyper inflation.

Scary is having a lot of unspent money sitting in the bank that could lose half its value without spending any of it.

Most people are the other way around, being deeply in the red by hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of loans, so even at 0, we would already be far better off than the vast majority of people are right now.

Its nothing more than shopping ahead of time. If you think you are going to buy $10k worth of stuff over the next year and you have $10k in the bank....just buy all that stuff NOW, before that $10K worth of stuff costs $15K.



I've never had a single cent 'invested' in anything so that is moot.

This in mind, what is the advice for those of us carrying debt, mainly real estate debt?

Obviously "pay it off as soon as you can", but I'm wondering how that works, in practice. Unfortunately, missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin, cheap, and had to rebuild the house on my land due to the original house's rot. Only solution I can come up with is to put every penny to paying off the mortgage, till it's done...and maybe keep a little on the side to jump into stocks if and when they allow the stock market to crash.

The cost for having ANYTHING done professionally by craftsmen has become staggering, as well. I don't have time to rebuild a pasture fence, for example, but don't have the money to pay someone to do it, either.

 

[Supervisor42]

Its a gamble....but all money games are. Keeping money in the bank is a gamble too.

Hell, I guess if I need a bunch of money, I'll just do what all the normies do, borrow it.

Are you like me and have CC's with $28K spending limits?
I spent years building those, and they are the kind of 'prepping' that nobody ever talks about.
If I needed to 'borrow' money, I don't have to apply for any loan .
Yes, I have put a $2,000 purchase on one... and it never even blinked. Not even a 'Was this you?' email.
Anecdote: At the football game I attended last night, nowhere in the stadium was cash accepted.
Plastic Rulz!!!

 

[zoomzoom]

This in mind, what is the advice for those of us carrying debt, mainly real estate debt?

Obviously "pay it off as soon as you can", but I'm wondering how that works, in practice. Unfortunately, missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin, cheap, and had to rebuild the house on my land due to the original house's rot. Only solution I can come up with is to put every penny to paying off the mortgage, till it's done...and maybe keep a little on the side to jump into stocks if and when they allow the stock market to crash.

The cost for having ANYTHING done professionally by craftsmen has become staggering, as well. I don't have time to rebuild a pasture fence, for example, but don't have the money to pay someone to do it, either.

I can't advise but here's my thoughts.

Let's ay you have $100K in real estate debt at 5% interest.

Let's say you take that $100K and put it into a mutual fund. Here's an example.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FBALX/performance/
This fund has turned a 27% profit in the last year and has a 10-year average of 9.5%.

Yea, there's a little risk involved (as there is in any investments), buy why pay off a loan at under 5% when you can make double (or for this year 5X) that amount on your investment?

Another thing to look at is if you're on the trailing end of your mortgage, you've already paid the bank most of the interest. Look at an amortization calculator. Here's one to give you an idea.
https://www.calculator.net/amortization-calculator.html

 

[Tootsie]

This in mind, what is the advice for those of us carrying debt, mainly real estate debt?

Obviously "pay it off as soon as you can", but I'm wondering how that works, in practice. Unfortunately, missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin, cheap, and had to rebuild the house on my land due to the original house's rot. Only solution I can come up with is to put every penny to paying off the mortgage, till it's done...and maybe keep a little on the side to jump into stocks if and when they allow the stock market to crash.

The cost for having ANYTHING done professionally by craftsmen has become staggering, as well. I don't have time to rebuild a pasture fence, for example, but don't have the money to pay someone to do it, either.

I would say pay every penny that you can to get the mortgage paid off. I’m no financial expert by any means, but from experience, we lived as cheaply as we could and paid off the mortgage with some prepayments added as we could. It was a huge relief. After that, we steadily built up what we needed. Shop/spend carefully. Second hand is good, and friend or family helping one another is priceless.

 

[montanabill]

I can't advise but here's my thoughts.

Let's ay you have $100K in real estate debt at 5% interest.

Let's say you take that $100K and put it into a mutual fund. Here's an example.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FBALX/performance/
This fund has turned a 27% profit in the last year and has a 10-year average of 9.5%.

Yea, there's a little risk involved (as there is in any investments), buy why pay off a loan at under 5% when you can make double (or for this year 5X) that amount on your investment?

Another thing to look at is if you're on the trailing end of your mortgage, you've already paid the bank most of the interest. Look at an amortization calculator. Here's one to give you an idea.
https://www.calculator.net/amortization-calculator.html

I missed something......having $100K in real estate debt in the house you are living in is one thing. How does the average person get $100K to invest in a mutual fund?
As well as have someplace to live...

As for mmL373 i feel your pain.. We have a chunk still owed on the property (A small chunk since we bought before the great increase). we still owe enough that paying it off is something we can't see or budget for. And our taxes and insurance have risen so much even a paid off place would still cost us every month or every year.
So our solution has been to rent out part of the house and to do side buisnesses out of the property.. We currently have more income than the house costs us even with the new roof and the new well pump etc etc.. We rent to people who want to live in our area and are willing to help out as we also help them out with things besides a rental.
We have the teen we have been raising building some tiny houses for himsef and friends in the back yard and our next project will be a simple parking spot for a self contained camper or trailer.....which in our locality is going for over $600 a month with a 20 amp plug in and nothing else.

 

[SLADE]

My bank keeps wondering if I want a credit card.
I have a friend that looooved to talk about his great credit score and all the crap he purchased with it.
His wife is leaving him and he will soon lose his house truck and crap purchased with his great credit.
Do I want credit?
NO

 

[Patchouli]

Found this clip, about 4 and half minutes long, put together with clips from Ronald Reagan speech and clips from the world of the demos.
Rings true today.

 

[Supervisor42]

My bank keeps wondering if I want a credit card.
I have a friend that looooved to talk about his great credit score and all the crap he purchased with it.
His wife is leaving him and he will soon lose his house truck and crap purchased with his great credit.
Do I want credit?
NO

Having plenty of credit requires responsibility, and some people don't have that. It is not for them.

 

[SLADE]

Having plenty of credit requires responsibility, and some people don't have that. It is not for them.

That's not my reason. I buy what I want and keep my wants under control.
Beware your wants.
That's the real test.

 

[mml373]

I can't advise but here's my thoughts.

Let's ay you have $100K in real estate debt at 5% interest.

Let's say you take that $100K and put it into a mutual fund. Here's an example.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FBALX/performance/
This fund has turned a 27% profit in the last year and has a 10-year average of 9.5%.

Yea, there's a little risk involved (as there is in any investments), buy why pay off a loan at under 5% when you can make double (or for this year 5X) that amount on your investment?

Another thing to look at is if you're on the trailing end of your mortgage, you've already paid the bank most of the interest. Look at an amortization calculator. Here's one to give you an idea.
https://www.calculator.net/amortization-calculator.html

Thank you, and that was kinda my thinking as well. There's got to be a good vehicle to put money in to try to get this debt paid off sooner...even if there is some risk...life's risky. Thanks again.

 

[mml373]

I missed something......having $100K in real estate debt in the house you are living in is one thing. How does the average person get $100K to invest in a mutual fund?
As well as have someplace to live...

As for mmL373 i feel your pain.. We have a chunk still owed on the property (A small chunk since we bought before the great increase). we still owe enough that paying it off is something we can't see or budget for. And our taxes and insurance have risen so much even a paid off place would still cost us every month or every year.
So our solution has been to rent out part of the house and to do side buisnesses out of the property.. We currently have more income than the house costs us even with the new roof and the new well pump etc etc.. We rent to people who want to live in our area and are willing to help out as we also help them out with things besides a rental.
We have the teen we have been raising building some tiny houses for himsef and friends in the back yard and our next project will be a simple parking spot for a self contained camper or trailer.....which in our locality is going for over $600 a month with a 20 amp plug in and nothing else.

I am of a similar mind...I have a finished out portable building that's my office and rehab center. If I build a proper shop, those will be moved to it and I'd likely rent out the portable either for elderly parents or otherwise.

 

[montanabill]

I am of a similar mind...I have a finished out portable building that's my office and rehab center. If I build a proper shop, those will be moved to it and I'd likely rent out the portable either for elderly parents or otherwise.

we have rented studio apartments in our house to older students that work mostly full time. They are focused and either in school or working.
we give them a good set of headphones if they want to crank up the music.
My brother the rich one said....never rent to someone you won't or can't evict....on the other hand you can give it for free to family...Call your rental a extended stay motel or whatever so you don't get embroiled in laws...
Give a discount for cash...
Spell out everything you won't tolerate...
If you are renting to strangers don't show them the place till you meet them in a neutral place and run all the checks.. We use craigslist with the blind response...I try to get their name, phone number and where they have lived lately then I run a simple check on google and all sorts of stuff pops up. If you get their email and can check them on social media all the better.
If you have a skill by all means stock up on any materials you might need to continue that line of work if supply lines shut down.
If biden keeps authorizing american missiles to be shot into russia we might get to test out our strategies.

 

[old tex]

My bank keeps wondering if I want a credit card.
I have a friend that looooved to talk about his great credit score and all the crap he purchased with it.
His wife is leaving him and he will soon lose his house truck and crap purchased with his great credit.
Do I want credit?
NO

I once explained Credit Cards to someone like this. It's like having a rich uncle & you get to decide if he is going to leave you money or leave you bills to pay. Properly used, credit cards are great. Improperly used & they will ruin you (like your friend). I look at them as saving me time & money. I save time by charging everything I buy, no writing of a bunch of checks, No running to the bank for money, just charge it. By doing that I save my time & I get to use someone else's money for around 30 days for FREE. A short term loan that I don't pay interest on. And as the cherry on top I make (rewards credit card) for every dollar I spend I get a penny back. A penny isn't much BUT if it's on every single dollar you spend it adds up. I literally have no reoccurring bills that don't go on my credit card & I write one check a month to pay it off.

So why do cc companies pay 1% back? It's simple, some people can not handle cc's wisely. They do exactly what your friend did. And those people pay a LOT of interest over their lifetimes. If a person falls into that category they should never ever use credit cards.

I found that if I carry cash I will spend it. Two bucks for a coke, hey I'm thirsty & how about a candy bar to go with it? Five bucks gone for nothing of value. I just realized that I "blew" cash when I carried it so for 30 year I almost never had more than 3 dollars in my wallet. Now days it doesn't matter that much so I might have a 20 in there.

 

[Neb]

I bought a lawn tractor and pais cash instead a cc.

Cash price $3250
Cc price. $3400

The cc company makes 5% on each transaction.

So paying off a cc each month is not free.

Ben