How long would you last an apocalypse

[Alphonse]

Hey guys so I am looking for some information. I am wondering if there are any official studies done in regards to how long the average person would survive an apocalypse. Is there any info on how long researchers think the average person would survive? I found this information harder to find than I thought. I mostly came across surveys to take to see how long I would last. But I am looking for actual research on how long the average person would last. I am doing a speech on prepping at my university. Thank you!

 

[Silent Earth]

I did an online survey a while back and it said I was good for ten months. But among my small group of preppers I think more realistically 6 months would be more accurate.

 

[bgoldstuff]

Hey guys so I am looking for some information. I am wondering if there are any official studies done in regards to how long the average person would survive an apocalypse. Is there any info on how long researchers think the average person would survive? I found this information harder to find than I thought. I mostly came across surveys to take to see how long I would last. But I am looking for actual research on how long the average person would last. I am doing a speech on prepping at my university. Thank you!

Maybe you could share your speech with us when your finished with it ?

 

[Gazrok]

If in college, don't you have access to some of the key databases for scholarly papers? You're going to need peer-reviewed sources no doubt. Department of Homeland Security would be good to check, as well as Brookings Institute for government sponsored studies.

Here's some assistance:

http://books.google.com/books?id=og...verage person survive post apocalypse&f=false

http://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2011/05/preparedness-101-zombie-apocalypse/

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/13/magazine/the-post-post-apocalyptic-detroit.html?_r=0

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/c...wn-doomsday-stonehenge-monument/#.VGDO78kdnYE

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-hornor-jacobs/10-essentials-for-survivi_b_1658924.html

 

[Roninsensei]

Look up Survival exploration then and now.
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/166504main_Survival.pdf
It's a lesson plan for teachers but it may help you with questions and some Jamestown survival stats

 

[lonewolf]

I read a survey about 18 months ago, its was American but would apply I think both sides of the "pond"(I don't have a link to it, sorry). it said 55% of people asked said they had less than 3 DAYS food at any time, 21% said they would survive for less than 1 WEEK, 28% said they would survive for less than 2 WEEKS, 75% said they would be DEAD within 2 MONTHS.

 

[jimLE]

that dont surprise me at all bigpaul..but if i figure right... at least 80% to 95% will be dead with in 2-6 months..all from one reason or another.starvation,dehydration.disease,to getting killed in one way or another..

 

[Gazrok]

Really, it depends on the scenario. For example, a SHTF event involving an airborne virus with a high mortality rate and quick onset time, is going to be WAY different than a SHTF event that just takes out the grid and/or all electronics, for example.

If you just factor in the reduction of available food and water, that's one thing.
If you factor in those on life support who will die, those who will die in riots, those who eventually die from sanitation issues once society stops, etc., it will really change those figures. Simply put, it's hard to quantify, as it depends on SO many different variables. That's going to be the real challenge of your paper/speech, so you may first want to specify what KIND of apocalypse your topic is going to be. At least then, you'll have a more limited scope on variables.

 

[lonewolf]

that dont surprise me at all bigpaul..but if i figure right... at least 80% to 95% will be dead with in 2-6 months..all from one reason or another.starvation,dehydration.disease,to getting killed in one way or another..

was talking to a prepper friend of mine, we both reckon 95% of the population will be dead within 6 months(a year at the outside) from starvation/suicide/disease and accidental deaths. especially in the UK where prepping is still looked on as "weird" and people don't even know which animal there food comes from, hunting is looked on as "anti social" and everyone walks around head down glued to their mobiles or headphones..or both. as soon as the power goes off most will freeze as they have no "alternative" supply. wife was only saying half an hour ago that if SHTF was in summer they might last a bit longer but if it was now..early winter they would freeze to death the first cold weather we got.

 

[jimLE]

yeah..for those has propane for their stoves, heat and hot water.100 to 150 gallons will last all summer..that is they dont cook a great deal.and no canning..but come winter.that 100 to 150 gallons is gone before they know it..and if there's no electric.no electric heat of any kind..and if there's no fire place.or firewood for the fire place..then their gonners..

 

[hlrive]

I read a survey about 18 months ago, its was American but would apply I think both sides of the "pond"(I don't have a link to it, sorry). it said 55% of people asked said they had less than 3 DAYS food at any time, 21% said they would survive for less than 1 WEEK, 28% said they would survive for less than 2 WEEKS, 75% said they would be DEAD within 2 MONTHS.

This is not good, this is why I have told so many folks to keep food and water on hand at all times, but no it is easier to run to the store. Wait and see what happens.

 

[hlrive]

yeah..for those has propane for their stoves, heat and hot water.100 to 150 gallons will last all summer..that is they dont cook a great deal.and no canning..but come winter.that 100 to 150 gallons is gone before they know it..and if there's no electric.no electric heat of any kind..and if there's no fire place.or firewood for the fire place..then their gonners..

This is why I keep water on hand all the time. I even keep cans of chicken broth for cooking so I wont have to use the water. I also started stock piling V-8 juice in the cabinet. It is great to make soup with. But a gas stove is a must and if people can, they can get the little wall heater units for their homes that can be hooked up to a 100 pound gas tank.

 

[jimLE]

we always have chicken broth and v8 juice on hand.not sure.but i think that we also have some beef broth as well..plus we also keep chicken and beef bullion on hand as well..then there's evaporated and condensed milk.plus we have these.(pic's below)

 

[hlrive]

we always have chicken broth and v8 juice on hand.not sure.but i think that we also have some beef broth as well..plus we also keep chicken and beef bullion on hand as well..then there's evaporated and condensed milk.plus we have these.(pic's below)

View attachment 3932

Yeah I have seen those lately. Was wondering how good they would be. I bought 2 boxes of chicken broth not sure how long it will stay good for though after expiration day but they do wax the boxes. I have evaporated milk, condensed milk, even gravy in the cans and jars. And remember when cooking soups and other things if you open a can of corn or something like that you can use the liquid to make a soup with.

As for baths. I use to do my kids at the kitchen table with a mixing bowl full of water. I also have done it in Maine with 2 gallons of water at the tub.

I thought at one time that we could use the brook water right down the road then when I saw that folks had started throwing trash in the brook and even old batteries, I gave up on that idea and bought some big blue barrels to catch rain water in. No way am I drinking the brook water. I do have plenty of water under the house stored away but as for after that is gone. I will use rain water.

 

[jimLE]

how much trouble would it be to clean out the brook? money can be had for the car batteries..

 

[Gazrok]

Basically, I think the real deal is going to come down to having replenish-able food and water sources.
While I'm nowhere near where I'd like to be (i.e. I have a 5 year plan, and still in year 1 of it), our current state and end-game plan does take care of this fairly well.

Replenishable water = well with backup manual pump (eventually with solar pump), rain catchment barrels (eventually will be about 6 of these in various places).
Stored water = 50 gallon water barrels (eventually will be about 8 of these), 2 cases (36 in case) each person of bottled water (plus one case, as we rotate through this).
_____________________________________

Replenishable veggies and fruits = Veggie garden (about 50' x 20'), stored seeds, seeds from garden harvest, fruit trees (apple, pear, orange, tangerine, banana, avocado, lemon, lime), other (pineapple, blueberries, blackberries, strawberries, grapes).
Stored veggies and fruits = store canned, home canned
_____________________________________

Replenishable medicinal and cooking herbs = Medicine/Herb garden (and some growing around trees, and along the outside of the house).
Stored medicines/herbs = Bulk meds, medical equipment, first aid supplies, bulk dried spices and herbs.
______________________________________

Replenishable dairy/protein = Chickens (meat and eggs), Rabbits (meat), Goats (meat and dairy). Currently, we have the rabbits and the chickens, will be adding goats next year most likely. In addition though, we have plenty of birds, frogs, and fish nearby, as well as possum, raccoon, squirrel, and even wild rabbits and boars occasionally).
Stored dairy/protein = Powdered cheese, powdered butter and milk, condensed milk, and canned meats. Also, dehydrated meats. Granted, not the first choice, but these are really the only "survival" foods we get.
_____________________________________

Stored dry foods = 6 gallon buckets with gamma lids (and O2 absorbers (for most) and mylar bags), dried pastas (different kinds), rice, corn, different dry beans, mashed potato flakes, cereals, flour, sugar, salt, dried peas, etc. All of these are basically store or bulk store purchases, then packed to store for longer. You also have to actually USE these gradually, and rotate through them over time, and repacking the bucket when through it all. I use different colored gamma lids for different contents (so easy to identify in general), but with specific labels (with date).

The real trick is having good places to store it all. In addition to all of this, we also are looking to build up more of a stockpile of pet food and animal feed as well. When we find a good deal on hay for the horses and rabbits, we stock up then, and same when deals on feed are to be had. Just have to rotate through it.

 

[DrHenley]

Really, it depends on the scenario.

Exactly...

 

[bgoldstuff]

how much trouble would it be to clean out the brook? money can be had for the car batteries..

Unless EPA is called in, I don't think one person can clean enough of the hazardous waste to make it safe for drinking.

EPA will look for those responsible, they get my vote !

 

[Brent S]

Gaz was right in pointing out that there are way to many variables to get an average. I wouldn't bet on 4 weeks in any large city, but even in the country it's too random to call. If you're in the path of a roving gang that outnumbers you, you're screwed. Even in a city it is possible to survive, just less likely.

 

[Gazrok]

Different strategy. In the city, post SHTF, you'd survive by either being in a gang, or being like a human rat, hiding most of the time, and scavenging when you are least likely to be detected.

 

[hlrive]

Unless EPA is called in, I don't think one person can clean enough of the hazardous waste to make it safe for drinking.

EPA will look for those responsible, they get my vote !

Yeah the EPA is suppose to handle that stuff. I got up with the local PD, I don't think they did anything though to stupid to do anything. I suppose I could follow the brook up stream and get some water but makes me wonder if upstream near a road if there would be more trash in it.

The one thing that I miss about Maine is the cleanness where down here people throw anything beside the road. It is pitiful that people don't care.

 

[jimLE]

it's that way here to...and there's a creek in each direction when leaveing the house.in which it's a wonder there's not a lot of trash there.

 

[bgoldstuff]

Yeah the EPA is suppose to handle that stuff. I got up with the local PD, I don't think they did anything though to stupid to do anything. I suppose I could follow the brook up stream and get some water but makes me wonder if upstream near a road if there would be more trash in it.

The one thing that I miss about Maine is the cleanness where down here people throw anything beside the road. It is pitiful that people don't care.

As long as the Brook has moving water in it that helps, you can always boil the water and or filter it, if that's an option for you?

I like you would rather not have to do either to the water to make it safe to use, it's sad people don't understand where their drinking water comes from, bottled spring water just don't fall from the sky.

 

[hlrive]

Basically, I think the real deal is going to come down to having replenish-able food and water sources.
While I'm nowhere near where I'd like to be (i.e. I have a 5 year plan, and still in year 1 of it), our current state and end-game plan does take care of this fairly well.

Replenishable water = well with backup manual pump (eventually with solar pump), rain catchment barrels (eventually will be about 6 of these in various places).
Stored water = 50 gallon water barrels (eventually will be about 8 of these), 2 cases (36 in case) each person of bottled water (plus one case, as we rotate through this).
_____________________________________

Replenishable veggies and fruits = Veggie garden (about 50' x 20'), stored seeds, seeds from garden harvest, fruit trees (apple, pear, orange, tangerine, banana, avocado, lemon, lime), other (pineapple, blueberries, blackberries, strawberries, grapes).
Stored veggies and fruits = store canned, home canned
_____________________________________

Replenishable medicinal and cooking herbs = Medicine/Herb garden (and some growing around trees, and along the outside of the house).
Stored medicines/herbs = Bulk meds, medical equipment, first aid supplies, bulk dried spices and herbs.
______________________________________

Replenishable dairy/protein = Chickens (meat and eggs), Rabbits (meat), Goats (meat and dairy). Currently, we have the rabbits and the chickens, will be adding goats next year most likely. In addition though, we have plenty of birds, frogs, and fish nearby, as well as possum, raccoon, squirrel, and even wild rabbits and boars occasionally).
Stored dairy/protein = Powdered cheese, powdered butter and milk, condensed milk, and canned meats. Also, dehydrated meats. Granted, not the first choice, but these are really the only "survival" foods we get.
_____________________________________

Stored dry foods = 6 gallon buckets with gamma lids (and O2 absorbers (for most) and mylar bags), dried pastas (different kinds), rice, corn, different dry beans, mashed potato flakes, cereals, flour, sugar, salt, dried peas, etc. All of these are basically store or bulk store purchases, then packed to store for longer. You also have to actually USE these gradually, and rotate through them over time, and repacking the bucket when through it all. I use different colored gamma lids for different contents (so easy to identify in general), but with specific labels (with date).

The real trick is having good places to store it all. In addition to all of this, we also are looking to build up more of a stockpile of pet food and animal feed as well. When we find a good deal on hay for the horses and rabbits, we stock up then, and same when deals on feed are to be had. Just have to rotate through it.

I would love to have goats for the milk, however where we live it is at the beginning of a subdivision and we are only allowed 1 goat as a pet. And it can not be for dairy purpose (States that on the deed). So that is out of the question. Well you can't do here, it's against regulations. They have so dang many rules here, however they don't have one on horses, chickens, or rabbits. So I have that covered or at least all but the Horse.

One thing that folks can do if they want powdered cheese is to buy up the mac and cheese dinners when on sale like 5 for $1 and use the pasta for soups and keep the cheese. I have a small pail with a cover on it full of cheese packets just in case. I also have the pasta in another big bucket. I keep one bucket full of powdered milk mix, just in case. I can always make mac and cheese with a can of cream style corn in it. The kids love it that way. I haven't done the mashed potato flakes yet. And something new they have out now is the dehydrated hash browns. I may start a bucket with those in it. I love it, and it's so easy to do. They even have cheese flavored, so for a difference you can add those in a bucket.

I keep a very small herb garden, which I need to add to over the next year. However I have to fence it in, in the fall and spring the chickens like to eat from it.

 

[jimLE]

it dont? LOL

 

[hlrive]

As long as the Brook has moving water in it that helps, you can always boil the water and or filter it, if that's an option for you?

I like you would rather not have to do either to the water to make it safe to use, it's sad people don't understand where their drinking water comes from, bottled spring water just don't fall from the sky.

I think I would only use it as a last resort, just in case if we ran out, However if I keep the barrels full and just use that for drinking, and use the brook water for baths, washing dishes, and watering the chickens, and garden. I should be good.

 

[Gazrok]

Reminds me, about time to empty, refill some barrels. I like to do that about every 4 months, to ensure the water is fresher.

 

[bgoldstuff]

Reminds me, about time to empty, refill some barrels. I like to do that about every 4 months, to ensure the water is fresher.

I would think, distilling your own water would keep for longer periods of time in your storage barrels?

 

[jimLE]

Reminds me, about time to empty, refill some barrels. I like to do that about every 4 months, to ensure the water is fresher.

that reminds me..i need to take the bottles of water of the van.and replace with fresh water..

 

[hlrive]

I am going to start filling some more soda bottles with water. Might as well, it wont hurt any to fill them and put them under the house.